Monthly summary - January

January ended up as a short month tipping wise – but despite that, the figures posted for the month are quite impressive – at least on superficial viewing…

TVB tips

Total Staked: 16.75pts

Total Profit: 14pts

ROI: 84%

*Adjusted figures

Total Staked: 16.75pts

Total Profit: 8.38pts
ROI: 50%

*The adjusted figures assume that all bets are layed off at 2 IR to produce the same profit regardless of whether it wins the race.

So seemingly, whichever way you look at it, January was a good month – yet, for some reason, I’m not quite so convinced…

I guess the first point to make, is that with only 16.75pts staked, January was a much quieter month than the 2 that proceeded it (approximately half as many bets were struck).

This was due in part to me taking a week off at the beginning of the month – but also to the impact of the poor weather experienced during the month…

Looking at the tips in a little more detail:

There were 26 tips across 24 races and these yielded 4 winners and a second (all 5 of which, traded odds on in-running) – a strike rate of around 20%, which is, I think, where part of my discomfort comes from.

I aim for a 25% strike rate – so I’m a little way off where I like to be (and 10% lower than the mark I hit in December).

A further 5 horses were placed third or fourth – but that again means I was operating a little shy of the level I expect.

To balance this out however: for the first time this season, luck smiled on us !

Now it didn’t exactly show us all of it’s teeth – and make up for what had happened in the 2 previous months – but it did at least start to even things up a bit.

Without luck, on our side, we would have been around 6pts worse off in January – which would have cancelled things out from December – so now we’ve just got November to balance out ;)

Of course, the biggest slice of luck we got, was in the victory of Jadanli – and his victory showed once again, just how important a part luck plays in all this…

If he had been beaten a nose, rather than winning by one, this would have been a zero profit month…

Another illustration of just how fine these lines are (unless you operate with ‘adjusted’ figures, in which case they are considerably broader and you would have made the same profit regardless of whether Jadanli had hung on or not !).

My other slight concern with the figures, is that they are significantly skewed, by the victory of Jadanli - but, to an extent, that is the game I play…

I keep things ticking over with the shorter priced ones – and every so often, try to take a significant step forward with a big one.

We’d not managed to take a big step prior to Jadanli – but we were more than due one.

In truth, I would have felt far more uncomfortable about Jadanli, if his price had crashed prior to him winning, but fortunately that wasn’t the case.

I put him up at 28/1 – and, that price was available with at least one bookmaker, right up to the opening show.

He was also available at significantly bigger prices on Betfair – with his Betfair SP of just over 50, giving an indication of the number reached on there !

Furthermore, his industry SP of 25/1 means that anyone who backed him, should have got that price at very least – and probably a little more ;)

So, the third profitable month on the trot – people are going to start thinking it is more than a coincidence ;)

We are now over half way through the TVB season – in fact it is a little frightening to think that February will be my penultimate month of tipping !

Obviously, from here on in, the focus in going to be very much on Cheltenham.
I suspect it will be business as usual for most of February – but from the start of March, I would expect less daily action, until the festival starts.

I dare say that some of you were expecting more ante-post tips than I’ve given so far – but this is a conscious move on my behalf…

As I said in my interview with the SBC, I think you need to tread very carefully ante-post at the festival nowadays, because so many of the runners have multiple options and connections are reluctant to commit to specific races until much nearer the time.

Consequently, I am intend to leave most of my ante-post action until a few of the bookmakers are offering the NRNB concession.

I would expect that to happen very early in March – and once it does, expect me to start bombarding you with the tips !

Let’s hope we have a decent February first, to set things up nicely !!

TVB