Daily write-up - Feb 2nd

The meeting at Fairyhouse has been lost to the elements – but the 3 domestic NH cards, at Sandown, Ffos Las and Wetherby, all survive.

That said, the hurdle races at Sandown have been abandoned – and replaced by chases (if it was down to me, that would happen at far more meetings ;) ).

Needless to say, the going at all 3 courses will be very heavy indeed. Ffos Las in particular, tends to ride extremely slowly when the rain has been, so the West Wales National, should be quite a stamina test.

I’ve got a tip in that race – and a tip is 3 others – so without further ado, the rationale behind the bets, starting at Sandown…

1:50

Kudu Country is probably my strongest bet of the day.

I guess you might expect that, both from his price – and from the staking – but I really do think he will take the world of beating…

I was quite sweet on him, the last time he ran, at Ayr.

He was taking on Desert Cry that day, on 7lb better terms than when the two of them met, a few weeks earlier at Haydock.

I thought that would be sufficient for Kudu Country to turn the tables – but I was wrong. That said, he was beaten less than 3 lengths by a well handicapped rival – and I honestly think that with a more aggressive ride, he would just about have come out on top…

Kudu Country was ridden by James Reveley that day – but Barry Geraghty takes the mount today.

Barry has few peers in the jumping game – and if Kudu Country is up to the job today, I don’t think he will be let down by the man on top.

I am also happy enough taking on most of his rivals, for one reason or another…

Both Toubab and Oh Crick are going to struggle in the very heavy ground – and the reformed Eastlake may prove to be Kudu Country’s most dangerous adversary.

He ran well behind Rody last time out and gets to run off the same mark again today.

He could prove to be a tough horse to pass – but I’m hoping that Barry and Kudu will be up to the job ;)

0.75pt win Kudu Country 4/1

3:35

As was the case last week, I was beaten to the punch with my tip for this race, by Tom Segal (Pricewise).

As he is now effectively tipping at 8:00pm on a Friday, I can’t tip before him. However, most of the bookmakers, revert back to their Friday evening prices, for 15 mins or so on Saturday morning – so if we do want to back a Pricewise horse, there should be a window of opportunity when the best price can be taken.

In truth, Summery Justice is not the strongest tip I’ve ever issued...

He has a reasonable chance at a fair price, in quite a competitive race (despite the small field).

Part of the reason he is a decent price, is because favourite, Keppols Hill, is just too short a price.

He clearly has talent – but he has quirks to and could never be a betting proposition in a tricky race like this, at odds of just 9/4…

Summery Justice also has talent – and his record when fresh, bears close scrutiny…

On his racecourse debut, he was unfortunate enough to bump into that racing machine, known as Dastardly Dick… If injury had not intervened, there is no knowing what heights that horse could have reached, so for Summery Justice to finish third to him, was a very creditable performance (for those of you not in the know, I should point out that Dastardly Dick was owned by one of the TVB subscribers, though that fact hasn’t clouded my view of the horse, in any way whatsoever ;) ).

Summery Justice’s first run over fences, was also after along break and he managed to get the better of the now 139 rated Dovers Hill.

First time up in his second season over fences, he beat Buffalo Bob at Bangor: whilst first time up last season, he finished an honourable fourth behind Cappa Bleu at Haydock.

What makes the his seasonal debuts in the last 2 seasons even more creditable, is that they both occurred when the Venetia Williams stable was out of form.

As we know, that is not the case at the moment, so if Summery Justice can capitalise on that, he should be able to put in a really big run today.

The trip and ground should be perfect for him, so he should be up to running a big race.

The most interesting of his rivals are probably Brackloon High and On Trend. They finished first and second in a race a Kempton a few weeks back and at the revised weights, there should be little between the 2.

I would probably have slightly favoured the latter, who does seem to be running back into form, however his stable has gone 78 runners since it’s last winner, so it would take something of an act of faith to back him..!

0.5pt win Summery Justice 15/2

Earlier on the Sandown card, I think Houblon Des Obeaux can give favourite Captain Conan, something to think about in the Scilly Isles novice chase.
I actually considered tipping Houblon, as I think that 9/2 is a very fair price. Let’s hope I don’t regret my decision not to.

In the 3:0 race, our old friend Plein Pouvoir is quite well fancied.
However, I honestly don’t think that Sandown is his course – the fences come thick and fast in the back straight and he isn’t the quickest over his obstacles (even if he is normally pretty safe).

If I was to take one in the race, it would be Dashing George. He ran just 3 days ago at Leicester, so I’m a little surprised to see him taking his chance today.

However, assuming that race hasn’t left a mark, I think he will be much better suited to the shorter trip of today’s race.

Over to Ffos Las then…

2:05

The decision to make the Welsh Champion hurdle a limited handicap has been well received, with a field of 14 making this a very interesting contest.

Oscar Dara and Tanerko Emery share favouritism and their claims are there for all to see.

Both have been very impressive recent winners – but both have also risen significantly in the weights as a consequence and it remains to be seen whether they will be able to defy their new marks…

Double Ross was also a mighty impressive winner, back in November.

That was of a 2m4f handicap hurdle at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. The race was run on dreadful ground and Double Ross spread-eagled the field.

He incurred a 12lb rise for that win, but was turned out the following Saturday, under a 7lb penalty.

That was at Haydock and he again threatened to take his field apart, but after quickening clear in the straight, he faded after jumping the final hurdle and eventually only finished fourth.

Despite that being a very creditable run, there must be a possibility that he was still feeling the effects of a tough race less than a week earlier.

Double Ross’s most recent run, was in the Ladbroke handicap at Ascot, the weekend before Christmas.

That race is over the bare 2 mile trip, which was always going to be a bit short for him.

Despite that, he again ran with credit, leading into the home straight and staying on bravely to finish fourth.

He has been put away since that run – which after 3 hard races in a month, was probably a good move.

If he returns today in the sort of form he was in at Cheltenham, then I think he will take a bit of catching over a trip that suits and on ground that he should relish.

0.5pt win Double Ross 10/1

2:40

I’m not in the habit of tipping horses running from 7lb out of the handicap – but I think there are exceptional circumstances in this particular race…

For a start, the presence of Junior, meant that only 5 of the 12 runners were ever going to be in the handicap proper

His presence, ensured that his stable companion, Shaking Hands got to run off the minimum weight – which would have to be considered a positive, in the likely desperate ground.

Junior has now been declared a non runner, so that would seem to improve the case for Shaking Hands – however, there is a sting in the tail…

Shaking Hands is one of 4 confirmed front runners in the race (Carruthers, Alfie Spinner and Red Rocco are the others) – and not only do all 4 like to front run, their chances are likely to be severely compromised if they can’t adopt that position. Needless to say, the race cant be run to suit all 4 !

Considering those 2 factors, puts a completely different perspective on the race – and initially made me feel that Cannington Brook was the most likely winner (he is in the handicap proper and doesn’t front run).

However, I think the trip will push his stamina to the absolute limit – and he is also up 6lb for a very narrow victory last time out…

Interestingly though, if you look back through Cannington Brook’s form, you will see that he holds a very narrow victory over Our Island, from Haydock last season.

The horses raced off level weight that day – but today, Our Island is set to receive a stone – that makes him look very interesting indeed…

Even more interesting is his form this season…

Last time out he finished fifth in the Welsh National – a highly creditable run.

Whilst the time before he finished third at Exeter behind Arbor Supreme and Desperate Dex. Both of those have gone on to frank the form subsequently…

Our Island didn’t quite manage to get home over the 4mile trip at Exeter, so dropping him back by half a mile today, should be perfect.

If it weren’t for the fact he is 7lb out of the handicap, Our Island could be a very strong bet today.

The fact he is, does tempter enthusiasm, as he clearly can’t be that well handicapped today – however, he has got perfect conditions and should have the race run to suit, so that is a couple of important boxes with big ticks in !!

0.5pt EW Our Island 12/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.