Daily write-up - Dec 10th

Two NH meetings today at Fakenham and Musselburgh – and surprisingly good fayre for a Monday in December…

Yesterday eyeing, I was eyeing 4 potential bets: however there has been a price crash on one of them, so we are just left with 3.

I could really fancy one of them – and I think the other 2 have got chances better than their odds imply…

Let’s hope our luck can stretch into a second day !

Starting at Fakenham

2:00

I could really fancy Fine Parchment in this – if I could be sure that he would jump off and race with relish…

In fairness, he did that last time out – and ran an absolute cracker over a trip that probably stretched his stamina.

However, the time before at Bangor, he just sulked and was eventually pulled up…

We should know our fate pretty early in the race, but if Fine Parchment can get to the front and into a rhythm with his jumping, I think he will take some caching round the tight Fakenham track - never mind passing !

Just over a year ago, Fine Parchment was rated 144: today he gets to run off a mark of 125. That mark is 5lb below his last winning mark, which was in a class 1 chase at Newbury, 18 months ago.

There can be little doubt, that Fine Parchment is well handicapped – if he can truly recover his form…

Like I say, the evidence for that is mixed. However, last time out, under today’s jockey, he ran a screamer, in a very decent race at Newbury.

He was still in the lead and going well rounding the home turn that day. However, he weakened up the straight and eventually only finished seventh.

As a result of that run, he has been dropped a further 2lb in the handicap – not that I really think such a drop is necessary…

I would struggle to pick one of his opponents out as a particular danger – I really think that the race is Fine Parchments to win – or lose…

If you have the opportunity, a good play might be to back him in running after 3 or 4 fences.

If at that point, he is in the lead and travelling well, anything above 4/1 would be a fair price.

Let’s just hope he got out of bed on the right side this morning ;)

0.75pt win Fine Parchment 8/1

2:30

Based on his form over fences, Nez Rouge looks very well handicapped in this hurdle race. In particular, based on his third to Bless the Wings at Wetherby, he looks to have an outstanding chance…

The winner has subsequently gone on and franked the form with victory at Newbury off a higher mark; whilst the runner-up, Gansey, ran an honourable race in defeat at Aintree on Saturday.

Even the fifth placed horse, L’Eldorado, has subsequently come out and won.

In short, the form looks rock solid…

And yet, Nez Rouge gets to run off an 8lb lower mark today than he did in that race.

That is the difference between his rating over fences and his rating over hurdles – but I don’t really think that can be justified.

New Rouge is clearly a horse who has had problems in the past. He is very lightly raced for an 11 year old, having only had 10 career outings.

However, if you look back at his old form, you will see that it is very solid indeed.

He actually gave weight and a beating to Whiteoak in a novice hurdle at Bangor. She subsequently won at the Cheltenham festival and finished her career with a rating of 150…

In terms of dangers today, then Lieutenant Miller and Who Owns Me, head the betting.

The former has been running well on the flat: whilst the latter won a poor race, very easily last week.

I would fear Lieutenant Miller more – but in all honesty, if Nez Rouge runs to the level of form which I believe him capable, he should really win this today…

0.5pt win Nez Rouge 8/1

In the final at Fakenham, I would expect Terre Du Vent to win – unless one of the unexposed runners is very decent indeed…

5/4 is not the biggest price every – but I still think she represent value.

Not sure why I didn’t tip her really !!

Over at Musselburgh…

1:20

I’ve got to be honest, I’m torn in this race…

I can’t decide whether the jumping of Civil Rest will win the day; or the class of Creekside…

As a consequence, I was half tempted to swerve the race (the prices aren’t there to back them both) – but I’ll be a little surprised if the winner comes from outside this pair, so I decided to take a gamble !

Not that it’s just a 2 horse race: Hazy Tom has certainly got a far chance – but more than twice as good as the other two, as the prices suggest ? I think not !!

For a start you only have to look back in the form book to Creekside’s last run – his debut fencing victory at Towcester.

Back in sixth place that day was Hazy Tom. Now I can well believe that Hazy Tom under performed that day – but Creekside was making his seasonal and chasing debut –and was hardly flawless himself.

Even more, I think that Creekside will be better suited by the quick Musselburgh course. He is a compact ex-flat horse, with a rating of 100 on the flat. He has speed to burn – and Mussleburgh is the track on which to burn it.

John Ferguson has sent him on a round trip of nearly 700 miles today – I doubt he has just gone for a day out at the Scottish coast…

My biggest concern with Creekside, is his jumping – and if you can back him with faller insurance, that might be a prudent thing to do.

Not that I necessarily think he will fall – but I can see him making niggling errors and that might ultimately prove his undoing…

One that I can’t see making errors, is Civil Unrest.

It is a long time since I’ve since a more accomplished round of jumping than the one he put up on his chasing debut at this track last month.

He was foot perfect at every fence and if he repeats that feat today, he will take some passing.

On the flip side, I’m not totally convinced by the decision to drop him back in trip – and the bottom lime is, if Creekside or indeed Hazy Tom, jump the last along side him, I suspect they will do him for toe on the run in…

Outside these 3, is possible to make a case for a few of the others. However, the afore mentioned 3 are all unexposed as chasers and I suspect may well be a few pounds better than their current ratings…

0.5pt win Creekside 7/1

The fourth horse that I planned to tip today, was Categorical, who runs in the 3 miles handicap chase, at 2:50.

Last night, he was a best priced 14/1 – which I would have been more than happy with. In fact, I would have been prepared to tip him at 10/1…

However, I simply didn’t foresee the avalanche of money that has come for him: he is currently 11/2 and vying for favouritism.

I could give him a fair chance – but that is just too short in my book…

I actually find the support for him a little surprising. He is a well handicapped horse – but he ran no sort of race last time out at Cheltenham.
In fact, I would go so far as to say, he ran a really weird race…

He was never put into the contest at any point. He started near the back and stayed there – never once being subjected to any pressure from his rider…

As a result his handicap mark has been dropped 5lb – and maybe that was the plan all along.

I guess I might have a small bet on him – because the subtle signs seem to be getting more obvious by the minute!  But he really isn’t a horse a TheValueBettor could now tip…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.