Race review

No joy with today’s early bird selection, Nafaath, who was pulled up before the third last, which was disappointing – but not entirely surprising, given his pre-race drift in the market.

The general idea is that early bird tips halve in price – however this one doubled !
Somebody clearly knew that the fitting of the tongue tie today, was not going to make a lot of difference…

That said, I did find the race – and the market – quite fascinating to watch…

It is no exaggeration to say that for the first mile or so, Naafaath travelled like the best horse in the race (which he probably is).

Having drifted out to 40 on Betfair pre-race, he was trading around 11 at half way (at which point 2 or 3 of the other runners were struggling to keep in touch).

However, literally within 2 strides – he was under pressure and slowing at an alarming rate….

Those of you with good memories will recall that we followed a horse with a similar tendency last year: Lucky Landing.

I was convinced that he needed a breathing operation – and I feel the same its true of Nafaath.

I’ve no idea whether Lucky Landing ever had his breathing op (the reporting of these things is sporadic), however he did transfer to another trainer and subsequently came good.

I can’t say that the same thing will happen with Nafaath – but I there must be a chance that it will

Whatever, I will be keeping a very close eye on him from here – and if connections think they have got him right (something the market is likely to tell us), we’ll be on with a view to recouping today’s loses…

The other main mention today, was L’Eldorado, whom I considered tipping at Towcester.

Not for the first time, my judgement on a borderline selection wasn’t where it needed to be – and he ran out a game winner.

My concern this morning was that he would find today’s test under his welter burden, just too much – but that wasn’t the case. He came under pressure quite a way from home but kept on fining…

More generally, I need to review whether I should be letting horses such as him go untipped.

The question is, am I being realistic in the price I am looking for ?

I would have tipped him today at 6/1 – but I wasn’t prepared to at 4/1.

I know there is a big difference between the 2 prices – but was 6/1 ever an achievable price ? (unless one of the bookmakers had made a mistake when pricing up the race early)

I guess this is a question that only I can really answer – but it is one that I need to give some careful thought to…

Anyway, he slipped though the net – though I know at least a few of you did back him, based on the write-up, which is a definite consolation.

In the bumper at Towcester, David Pipe had to contend himself with the runners-up prize money for High Ville.

I felt the horse set a decent standard – but when you are taking on completely unexposed types, there is always a danger that you will run into one that is a bit useful.

The previously unraced Halo Moon could be such an animal – as High Ville finished a good way clear of the remainder, yet was firmly put in his place by him.

Time will tell I guess…

TVB.