Daily write-up - Dec 5th

Two domestic NH cards again today, at Catterick and Hereford – plus a meeting at Wexford in Ireland.

Yesterday Folkestone hosted it’s penultimate NH meeting – today it is Hereford. If the rate of attrition continues, I’ll be out of a job by this time next year ;)

Only the one tip for the day – and I don’t suppose you will be too surprised to hear that I agonised over it a bit ! Let’s hope I got the call right, for a change…

Catterick 2:50

I dare say that a few of you expected to see the name of a different horse, when you opened up the email this morning, showing a tip in this particular race…

As recent as Sunday, I was very sweet on the chances of Ballymacduff at Musselburgh. Unfortunately that meeting was abandoned – but he is appearing at Catterick just a few days later…

I must admit, that I did toy with putting him up. Both last night as an early-bird tip (he opened at 14/1 !) – and this morning as a main line tip (9/1 was available) – but I decided against it…

There are 3 main reasons for me swerving him today: firstly, today’s race is a lot more competitive than the one he was due to run in on Sunday (where I was struggling to find a credible challenger); secondly, today race is run over a distance which is as far as Ballymacduff wants to run – and on soft ground, which isn’t going to suit him particularly well either  And thirdly, he is racing from 6lb out of the handicap. Now if he is very well handicapped (and I think he is) this shouldn’t matter – but it is hardly a positive…

So, on balance, I felt I had to let him go (I would have struggled to justify tipping him, that’s for sure). That said, I’ve had a saver on him and I wouldn’t dissuade any of you from doing likewise.

One thing’s for sure, if he does win today, we can certainly rue one that got away on Sunday…

With him effectively out of the race (!), it looked a bit easier to solve.

And whilst a case of sorts can be made for most of the runners, I think the solid option is Lockstown…

Superficially he was a little disappointing last time, on the back of a promising reappearance at Newcastle. However, if you look at the horses that beat him on his latest outing, the run maybe wasn’t quite so bad as it appeared…

That day he finished behind Knockara Beau, Bleinheim Brook and Lackamon. All 3 of those animals are far too good to get into a race like today’s – so he certainly won’t be facing anything of their class.

Ofcourse, his weight today has been adjusted to reflect that fact – but I would still hope that he might just prove a bit too classy for today’s rivals.

For the past 12 months, Lockstown has been plying his trade in class 2 and 3 chases. The last time he contested a class 4 chase (the same class as today contest), was just over 12 months ago at Newcastle, He was a comfortable winner that day and followed up in his next outing at Carlisle off a 7lb higher mark (and just 3lb lower than he races off today).

In his subsequent race, he was beaten a head off a mark of 122 – 5lb higher than he races off today.

In short, he is handicapped to go very close…

There are certainly dangers in the race – and unexposed types too. Kent Street, Nodform Richard and Quetzal all have potential for improvement – whilst I wouldn’t rule out either of the other 2 runners (never mind Ballymacduff !).
So all in all, a very competitive race.

However, I do think that Lockstown is the solid one in the race. I can see no reason why he shouldn’t run his race – and if he is close enough with a couple of fences to go, I would hope his boundless stamina will win the day.

If not, I just hope Ballymacduff doesn’t win !!

0.5pt win Lockstown 7/1

Aside from this race, there wasn’t a lot for me to get my teeth into, when I looked last night…

Earlier on the Catterick card, my eye was taken by Moidore in the juvenile hurdle – but Ruacana could be anything – and there is not much juice in the price of either of them…

Over at Hereford, there are a couple of handicap chases which looked like they might have potential.
However, on closer examination, I found that the horses I thought most likely to win both the races, had been installed as the favourites...

Drumshambo should win the 2:10 race, provided he has recovered from his exertions at Newbury last week – but 7/4 is no kind of price.

Whilst I would expect Doubletoilandtrouble to win the novice handicap chase at 3:10 – but you would want a bit bigger than 9/4, bearing in mind the lack of concrete form to work with…

Amazingly, the race of the day probably the Hunter Chase that takes place at Wexford !

It is the first Hunter chase of the season – but the Cheltenham foxhunter winner,  Salsify has chosen to make his seasonal debut in it.

It might have been reasonable to think that he would have scared away all of the opposition -  but not a bit of it !
Tammys Hill, By Design, Merchant Royal and Onefortheroad Mac are all very worthy opponents for the favourite.
I actually think that Salsify might get turned over today (he was on his seasonal reappearance under rules  last year) though choosing which one of the 4 will do it, is a trickier matter..

If forced into a corner, than I would say that Merchant Royal is probably the best value at 8/1 (maybe EW) – but certainly a race worth watching, if you have any interest whatsoever in the Hunter Chase scene…

Here’s to a great day ahead !

TVB.