Daily write-up - Dec 9th

A total of 4 NH meetings today: 2 in the UK at Warwick and Kelso; and 2 in Ireland at Punchestown and Cork. Though in terms of quality, the Irish meetings stand head and shoulders above their UK counterparts…

There are 3 graded events being run at Cork – but the race of the day (and one of the races of the season so far), is the John Durkan memorial chase, at Punchestown.

There may only be 4 runners in the field – but what a quartet they are !

The brilliant Flemenstar has been installed as favourite – and over a trip that will suit, on heavy ground and with the benefit of a run under his belt, it is difficult to argue that he deserves to head the betting…

According to the market, his main adversary is Sir Des Champs. He is unbeaten since his move to Ireland from France – including victories at the last 2 Cheltenham festivals. He is currently vying for favouritism for the Cheltenham Gold cup - and victory for him today, will doubtless see him move to the top of that market.

The other 2 runners aren’t exactly slouches either !

Rubi Light won this race last year, - and yet is 7/1 today. If he’d had a run this season, I would have considered him as a bet – but lack of race sharpness puts me off.

Finally, there is Bog Warrior. He is proving to be a little enigmatic – but at his best, he would be a match for any of these. He took the scalp of Flemenstar on his seasonal debut last year – and it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever if he were to do again today…

All in all, a race to savour – but probably not one to bet in…

So onto today’s tips: 1 from Warwick and 1 from Punchestown – starting with the Warwick meeting…

1:10

Fulgora has to be considered a risky tip, by virtue of the fact that she has never jumped a fence before in public.

However, based on her hurdling form, I think she has got a much better chance that her odds imply – and she certainly looks a mare with sufficient scope to jump a fence…

Following 2 runs in bumpers, she had to drop to selling company last season, in order to win a race. Her price that day was 33/1 – but she subsequently showed it to be no fluke by following up in a claimer at 16/1

Next time out she ran in a grade 2 event at Doncaster, where not too surprisingly, she  didn’t figure - but she was only beaten 24 lengths.

She only had one more run last season when running very poorly at Plumpon - my guess is that all was not right that day…

Over the summer, she transferred from the stable of Tor Sturgis to that of Brendan Powell – and she made her debut for him at Taunton, 3 weeks ago.

The race she ran in didn’t look much at the time, but subsequent events have shown it to be a decidedly useful contest.

The winner that day, Queens Grove has subsequently followed up that victory and is now rated 16lb higher than she was that day; whilst the third horse that day, went on to finish third in a very hot handicap at Ascot.

Fulgora was in the process of giving those 2 a serious race until she dropped out of contention approaching the final couple of flights.

With that run under her belt today - and back in trip by half a mile – provided her jumping is up to scratch, I think she will run a very big race indeed…

Whilst a lot of them have scope for improvement, her opponents currently look much of a muchness…

Greywell Abbey and Special Robon probably look the most dangerous – whilst at a price, Hoare Abbey could be interesting.

However, I am more than happy with Fulgora, who gets weight from all of her opponents and likes to race prominently so will hopefully avoid any traffic problems that might occur.

0.75pt win Fulgora 11/1

1:40

The tip in this race was to be Captain Paulie – but he has been declared a NR this morning…

In a funny way, I’m not too bothered about that. He was the sort of horse that I’ve not been tipping over the past few weeks, because their price is too short.

However, so many of these have won in recent weeks (L’Eldorado and Little Josh spring to mind form the last week), that I thought I would just go for it today and tip him regardless of price (as I reckoned he was the most likely winner).

It is pure speculation on my behalf but I can’t help wonder if the horse has been pulled today, because connections couldn’t get a price on him…

He was a 10/1 shot when the market opened last night – so 11/2 this morning is quite a drop…

The official reason for him not running, is self-certified lameness – which seems to have some scope…!

Like I say, pure speculation on my behalf – and in a way, you do have to have sympathy with connections of these horses.

They pay a small fortune in training fees (though this one is owned by the trainer himself) and when the horses finally are ready to win, the fancy prices are taken by small punters, the night before…

I’ll keep him on my radar – and in his absence, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Nozic (the horse most of you probably expected me to tip in this race anyway !!).

The other tip today, is the handicap chase, which is the penultimate race on the Punchestown card…

3:00

This is a nice little race: 8 runner and all with some kind of a chance.

The market is headed by Glenquest, who put up a massive run last time out, in the Troytown chase at Navan. He has been raised 3lb for that effort – which is fair enough. However, my concern would be whether he will have fully recovered from such a huge effort, only 2 weeks ago…

Instead, I would rather take a chance on Dantes King, who has always been a horse of massive potential – and who seemed finally to be starting to fulfil some of that potential, last spring…

He won a novice chase at Down Royal and followed that up with very good runs behind Lucky William and Any Bets in his first two runs in handicaps.

Following a disappointing final run of the season at Punchestown and a pipe opener, down the field at Down Royal, Dantes King finds himself back on the same mark as he was for his first 2 handicap runs.

He is also back over what I would consider his best trip, of 2m4f.

The cherry on the top, is the booking of Barry Geraghty..

Dantes King is a horse who tends to keep a little bit for himself – I’ll be intrigued to see how Barry reacts if he attempts such a trick today !!

In summary, this is a race that Dantes King can win if he wants to. And with Barry on top to help make up is mind, I’m optimistic we’ll get the right outcome ;)

0.5pt win Dantes King 7/1

I’m sure that one or two of you will be after a few pointers for this afternoons Irish cards – but I’m not sure I can offer much guidance!

Aside from the John Durkan at Punchestown, it will be interesting to see if Mikhael D’Haguenet can put in a clear round. If he can, I would expect to win – but I won’t be betting on it…

Over at Cork, there are some very interesting races – but betting opportunities are few and far between…

In the penultimate race on the card, I would expect Tipped up Harry to run a big race - and 12/1 looks a fair enough price. However, it is not a race I would ever consider tipping in, as it looks ripe for a plot !!

Finally a quick mention for Kelso, where the big race is the Borders National.
It will probably be won by Cotswold Charmer  - and if not him, then Railway Dillon – and if not him, then Captain America – and if not him, then Harouet…

You see the problem…?!

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB.