Friday 14 December 2012

Review of the day

When Quartz De Thaix crossed the line this afternoon, he became the 7th tip in the last 14 I’d given, to trade at odds on in-running…
However, that 7 have yielded just a single winner – and, somewhat ironically, that one was maybe a little fortunate…

I really don’t know what more I can do.
You will struggle to find more consistent tipping (3 of the 7 losers ran with significant credit) – and it’s not as if I’m tipping particular short priced horses.

However, as it was pointed out to me the other night:
‘Your tips either win or they lose’ – and at the moment, the vast majority are losing…

And unfortunately, that is the bottom line for many of you – if the tip doesn’t win, it may as well have been pulled up. Harsh but true…

Yet I look at the write-up that I produced today and I wonder how it was possible to lose money using it…

In the opener on the card, Super Duty battled on gamely for victory.
Rebel Rebellion travelled very nicely throughout the race but didn’t seem to quite get home. The application of a tongue tie would make you a little suspicious that he might have breathing issues…

Valley View unseated Maurice Linehan at the 10th fence in the conditional riders chase – which was a shame.
He appeared not to be travelling overly well at the time – but he is that kind of a horse. I’m sure his race wasn’t lost at the time of his departure.
That left Plein Pouvoir to battle out the finish with Red Rouble.
I knew that Plein would relish the ground if it was truly bottomless – and he battled bravely up the hill for victory.
If I could have been sure of the state of the ground – and if he had been available at 12/1 (rather than 6/1) when I issued, I might have been tempted by him EW – but that wasn’t the case…

Dark Lover routed the opposition in the handicap hurdle in the style of a horse still way ahead of the handicapper.
Whether that will be the case once the handicapper has been able to react however, would seem unlikely…

Next up was the pain of the Quartz De Thaix race.
He travelled well throughout (though maybe not quite as well as he has the last twice he has run) and Aiden Coleman looked to have timed his challenge perfectly when he took the lead jumping the second last fence.
However, he was unlucky to be challenging probably the stoutest stayer in the field - and Tom Scudamore galvanised Master Overseer to get backup in the shadows of the post.
It was a tough one to take – bearing in mind the way things have been going lately…

I wasn’t on the mark with the Cross country chase, where Outlaw Pete put in a very impressive performance.
Bostons Angel battled on for second place and it is nice to see him finally recapturing a little bit of form…

Monetary Fund ran quite well in the handicap hurdle – but ultimately didn’t get home again…
Not that it would have made much difference (for the win part of the bet at least) as At Fishers Cross and Inish Island were both clearly miles ahead of the handicapper…
They battled out the finish a full 8 lengths ahead of the third – and with the rest of the field well strung out behind…

In the finale, Melodic Rendezvous won nicely, showing a good turn of foot and battling qualities. He could make up into a half decent novice.
Village Vic on the other hand was once again disappointing. It is back to the drawing board with him.

Finally, over at Bangor, Flying Award duly obliged in the handicap chasse – but I sure that will have surprised no one !!

On to tomorrow then – with a reminder that tips will be issued this evening and not tomorrow morning.
I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that our luck decides to turn for the better..

TVB.

8 comments:

  1. Can't speak for others, but if this is a bad month I can live with it. I've been laying back in running since the start of this season. This may have cost me a little in November, the flip side is that I'm only down about a point for December. For that I've had a nice winner last Sunday and few close calls along the way.
    I didn't think horse or jockey lost anything in defeat to Master Overseer. While I don't like to see jockey and horse part company I'm quite glad Maurice went out the side door today. The horse didn't seem up for it today and I could only see something nasty happening if they had stayed together.
    Ballard (Mark)

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  2. Cheers Mark.
    I know things aren’t going too badly in absolute terms.
    We are maybe a couple of points down in December (I’m not sure of the exact number) – but that is hardly the end of the world.
    It’s just so frustrating to think what might have been. I really don’t think we’ve had a fair rub of the green since the very first day (OK, maybe day 2 – but you know what I mean !)
    I think I’ve taken to using the ‘race reviews’ as some kind of therapy – LOL ! People will just have to bear with me though – it’s got to be better that I get it out of my system (or at least that’s what my doctor keeps telling me ;) )
    TVB.

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  3. shame on you and anyone else tipping the night before.all it does is give the bookmakers a heads up.they dont even lay a decent bet in the morning let alone the night before!!!some clown has tipped up mr moonshine , i know for a fact one office took £163 at 9/1 and then chopped it into 7/1.pretty much anyone with half a brain can easily identify value prices getting on is not so easy, so why make it any harder?

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  4. I’m tipping tonight as a one-off, simply because I’m not around in the morning to tip then…
    I appreciate that it’s not the best time to tip – but on the odd occasion, it can’t be avoided.
    Let’s be honest, if anyone with half a brain can spot value prices, then they aren’t going to last long, whether I tip them of not.
    Like it or not, it’s the way of the world nowadays – bookmakers put up markets early simply to mark their own cards.
    If you are hoping to live in a utopian world where you get the prices you want; to the amount you want in the morning, I’m afraid you are sadly deluded…
    TVB.

    PS - I think you might find the 'clown' that has tipped Mr Moonshine, is Tom Segal !!

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  5. i know the PW selections , i get them firsthand.at least we agree TS is a "clown" but why have you joined the circus?
    btw , your reply whilst prompt seems to have missed my point or i failed to make myself clear.just to clarify i am in favour of tipsters advising value prices,it simply creates value elsewhere in the live market where there are no issues getting on.

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  6. I think there is only one clown on this thread – and it is neither myself nor Tom…
    TVB.

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  7. i would be suprised and disappointed if you thought any differently.thanks for letting me express my thoughts.

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  8. Out of interest Steve, why have you felt the need to post your last few comments anonymously…?
    You know we are all friends on here ;)

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