Review of the day

I don’t know, maybe I should only tip on a Sunday…

After all: I was born in December; my father was a carpenter; I know at least 3 wise men ( ;) ). Maybe it was just written in the stars…

Whatever, I do know that if I didn’t tip on a Sunday, the TVB P&L would be in a pretty sorry state…

Last week it was Fulgora who came to our rescue; previous Sundays have seen successes for Olofi; Coneygree and Bounds and Leaps – and today is was the turn of Queens Grove to provide some much needed Sabbath relief…

I dare say that a few of you would have thought it was very easy for me to tip Queens Grove today. She had won on her last two outings, so I was hardly pushing the limits, by suggesting her…

However, you’d be wrong…

I work in a relatively consistent manner: I have my various methods to help me try and find the winners – and the majority of my methods were screaming at me to tip Lady Kathleen today.

You all know how keen I was on her last time out at Ascot – and she was running from a mark 2lb lower today.

This morning she was 7/1 – and Queens Grove was 15/2 – so there wasn’t even much in their respective prices…

The only reason I went against Lady Kathleen today was because I believed she didn’t really handle the very soft ground at Ascot last time out – and I could see no reason why she would fare much better today.

As I said in the write up, she held Queens Grove on the book, so making the choice I did, was not an easy thing to do…

And I think that is the real danger when you go through periods like we’ve been experiencing lately – you start to doubt yourself a little and look to play safe – to play the percentages.

Lady Kathleen was the percentage call today – but I didn’t think she would win…

That said, I have to admit to being a little concerned pre-race, as I saw Lady Kathleen backed in from 7/1 to an SP of 2/1…

Queens Grove, on the other hand, was weak in the market, drifting out to 9/1, where I know of at least one subscriber who managed to back her (!)

However, in those crucial final couple of minutes before the off, it was Queens Grove who was strong in the market, firming to an SP of 13/2

And as is so often the case, that late market support proved to be spot on, with Queens Grove skipping home some 16 lengths clear of Lady Kathleen and winning in a manner befitting the best TVB tips.

If only could find a way of taking those wining margins and spreading them out amongst some of our narrowly beaten losers !!

Unfortunately, today’s other tip, Whatuthink, didn’t run quite so well at Navan.

He got the uncontested lead that I hope for, but never seemed to be travelling that well, on ground that didn’t look quite as heavy as I expected.

He was still in the lead on the home turn, but most of his rivals were queuing up to pass him at that point - and he ultimately finished well beaten…

Earlier on the Navan card, Boston Bob made a wining debut over fences – but only just.

He had to be strongly ridden by Ruby to pass, and then hold off, the renewed challenge of You Must Know Me.

The performance hardly enhanced his reputation – though there is the chance that the runner up is fair horse…

Don Cossack didn’t do quite so well in the novice hurdle and was already beaten when he fell after the final flight.

The winner, Pont Alexandre looked a serious horse however. Expect to be hearing his name a few more times over the forthcoming months…

In the handicap chase, both For a Finish and Rubert were ultimately pulled up…

It was a disappointing run from the former – but quite an interesting run from the latter !

Usually allowed to bowl along in front, Rubert was held up at the back of the field this time and made decent progress through the field down the back straight.
His effort petered out over the last couple of fences, but despite the form figure, the run showed him still to be in good heart.

I still think that a drop to the minimum trip and forcing tactics are the way to go though…

Finally, Reginaldinho and Ajzal both ran fair races back at Hereford but ultimately finished well beaten.

That said anyone who backed them pre-race and then layed off in-running should have done OK, as both traded at half their pre-race odds during the race.

On to tomorrow then…

TVB.