Daily write-up - Dec 27th

The Welsh National meeting at Chepstow may have fallen foul to the weather, but 4 other meetings have managed to survive: Kempton and Wetherby in the UK; plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Kempton provides the best of the domestic action but it is eclipsed by an outstanding card at Leopardstown.

I’ve tipped in 3 races today: 1 at Kempton and 2 at Leopardstown. Let’s hope we get the rub of the green for at least one of them !

So, the rationale for today’s tips, starting at Leopardstown…

2:00

I’ll be surprised if there is a better novice hurdle run this side of the Cheltenham festival – this is an absolute cracker !

I can understand Jezki being installed favourite – but there is no way he should be a 6/5 shot according to my viewing of the race…

His price is due almost entirely to his last time out victory when he beat the hugely promising Champagne Fever and Minsk, in the grade 1 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse.

Whilst ultimately he won that race well, he did look in trouble at various points during it – and although the form appears really strong, it hasn’t been properly franked and so should be treated with a certain amount of caution…

On his hurdling debut, Jezki just managed to get the better of one of today’s other runners, Ally Cascade.

However the wining margin was just three quarters of a length, so it is a little difficult to understand the disparity in odds between the 2 horses (Ally Cascade is a 16/1 shot)…

Part of the reason why Ally Cascade had been dismissed in the betting is because he is not the Gigginstown number 1 for this race (according to jockey bookings, anyhow).

That honour goes to Bright New Dawn – and that is part of the reason why he is the tip.

The other part is down to the form book…

On his seasonal debut, Bright New Dawn beat Ned Buntline at Fairyhouse. Last time out, Ally Cascade, beat Urano at Thurles. Yesterday, in the opener at Leopardstown, Ned Buntline beat Urano. Following that line of form, Bright New Dawn comes out about 5 lengths superior to Ally Cascade.

As Ally Cascade is less than a length the inferior of Jezki, Bright New Dawn aught to be 4 lengths his superior ;)

Of course, it is highly unlikely to pan out exactly like that - but it does show that Bright New Dawn represents significant value in the race at 11/1 against the 6/5 of Jezki…

Of course this isn’t just a 3 horse race: Waheeb and Sizing Rio are also both serious players – whilst I have a sneaking suspicion that Wingtips will run a very big race, despite his 25/1 price.

That said, Bright New Dawn looks a horse of enormous potential and also appears to be a very straightforward ride.

He led all the way at Fairyhouse and if Davy jumps him to the front here, I suspect the others are going to have to go some to get past him.

0.5pt win Bright New Dawn 11/1

2:35

This doesn’t look the most competitive handicap hurdle ever run and Discoteca looks just about the most interesting horse in the race…

He is only a 4 year old but has already managed to win 4 of his 8 hurdle races, showing gradual progression in the process.

He actually disappointed on his latest race over hurdles, when he was sent off a short priced favourite at the Galway festival but could only finish fourth.

In fairness to him, he had been on the go for a long time when he ran in the race and he maybe was just in need of a break.

He was given the best part of 6 months off after that run and only reappeared a fortnight before Christmas on the AW at Dundalk.

He didn’t feature that evening, which was maybe not surprising given his absence – but what seemed very significant was that Davy Russell made the effort to ride him in that contest.

Bearing in mind it was a Wednesday evening in the middle of December and that Davy hadn’t ridden on the flat for 2 years, it seemed an interesting move, to say the least…

Presumably the idea was to blow away the cobwebs – but also to enable Davy to re-familiarise himself with the horse, in preparation for his return to hurdles…

There is a question mark over the suitability of today’s ground for Discoteca – but he has won on deep ground in the past, so I’m quite hopeful he will cope with it.

In terms of his rivals, then Tennis Cap looks by far the most interesting.

He was very disappointing last season, but comfortably won his maiden on his seasonal debut this year.

He has been given a handicap mark of just 116, which could prove to be very lenient.

The only issue with him is his price, which is just 7/2…

At a much bigger price, I could see To the Sky running a fair race – but hopefully he won’t be good enough to beat Discoteca.

0.75pt win Discoteca 11/1

Earlier on the Leopardstown card, Sizing Europe runs in the Paddy Power Dial-a-bet chase.

On form he should win, but I’m not sure I would want to take 1/2 on ground that he is unlikely to relish.

Rubi Light will relish the conditions and it could prove interesting if he is given an aggressive ride (which is likely to be the case).

The other one worthy of a mention is Big Zeb and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world if the old warrior were to wind back the clock and put in a very big run on ground he will love.

At 14/1, he could reward a small interest…

The Paddy Power chase run at 3:10 is one of the most valuable handicap chases run all season.

Consequently it tends to attract horses that have been specially prepared for it.

This year, Glam Gerry looks like he will take all the beating – even if his price of 6/1 looks a little on the skinny side…

Now over to Kempton…

1:30

Kaffie is a mare that I’ve been waiting for, since her come-back run over course and distance at the end of November.

She finished fourth in a listed race that day, but ran really well, only giving best following a mistake at the second last hurdle.

That mistake knocked the stuffing out of her and she didn’t quite manage to get home. Opinion is split on whether she failed through lack of stamina that day – or lack of fitness.

I’m hopeful that it was the latter and if that was the case, I think she will take the world of beating today. The booking of Charles Green to take off 7lb also looks very significant. He is a jockey that Kim Bailey tends to use quite sparingly but when he does use him, you need to sit up and take notice…

It was my intention to only tip Kaffie in today’s race, but I simply cannot ignore the claims of Tweedledrum – and at a very big price, I simply had to tip her as well…

There are 3 reasons for me fancying Tweedledrum today:

Firstly, the form of her last time out victory at Ascot is stronger than it will appear to most.

Amongst others, she beat Romance Dance and Lady Kathleen that day – and both of these tie in with Queens Grove, and a general form line that has done well for us over the past month or so.

Secondly, she finished second to Kaffie last December at Exeter and although beaten a comfortable 8 lengths, is 23lb better off today. It is difficult to be categoric about how that will pan out today, but that is a very big weight turnaround.
Thirdly, Tweedledrum gets to run off the minimum weight today, minus a further 7lb of her jockeys claim – and I feel that could prove very significant in the bottomless ground.

Clearly, Tweedledrum doesn’t have the proven class of some of today’s rival – but she is only a 5 year old and therefore has scope for improvement.

At the prices, I found it impossible not to have her on board.

Let’s hope that one of them manages to come good today…

0.5pt win Kaffie 13/2

0.5pt win Tweedledrum 18/1

In the previous race on the card, it will be fascinating to see if Simonsig can build on his facile debut fencing success at Ascot.

Assuming he gets round safely, he should win.

The twice re-scheduled Peterborough chase takes place at 2:05.

A field of just 5 line up – but a chance could be given to each runner and the betting looks to have gauged their respective chances about right.

If there is any value in the race, it might be Hunt Ball – though his ability to act on the prevailing ground has to be taken on trust.

Whilst in the Desert Orchid chase, Sanctuaire is likely to find it a bit easier not having to try and burn off Sprinter Sacre.

I would expect him to be successful – but I can also see His Excellency running another big race.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.