Today’s’ NH action comes from Plumpton and Ffos Las – and whilst I can summon up very little enthusiasm for the former, the latter is a different matter entirely…
I’ve ended up with just the one tip from Ffos Las – but I considered two or three. That said, I’ve little doubt that I’ve selected the right one – my biggest issue is whether I’ve staked it correctly.
Still, if I just have to accept a winner on the day, I won’t be moaning too much (probably !).
Anyway, onto the rationale for the tip – and a few words on the ones that didn’t quite make the cut…
2:45
Those of you who really pay attention – and have good memories – will recall that I was interested in Master Neo, the last time he ran.
That I was in a very hot novice handicap, at Newbury on Hennessy Gold cup day.
My issue with him in that particularly contest, was that I didn’t think it would provide sufficient test of stamina for him.
The race was over 2m6f and run on good to soft ground.
Today Master Neo gets to run over 3m1f on heavy ground – that is much more like it, I think !!
Master Neo showed absolutely nothing as a hurdler, and has only run 3 times over fences. However it is very clear that he is a much better chaser than he ever was hurdler…
On his chasing debut, he ran in a very strong novice chase at Worcester. Despite an SP of 150/1, he finished fourth that day, well in front of the fifth place Volador.
That one is set to re-oppose him today on 17lb worse terms. Last night, Master Neo was more than double the price of Volador – some things take a little explaining…!
Maybe not too surprisingly, the market has adjusted this morning and Master Neo is now the shorter price (though not by that much)…
On his second outing over fences, Master Neo comfortably won a 3m novice chase in the mud at Uttoxeter. He will encounter very similar conditions today…
He third and final outing over fences was in the afore mentioned chase at Newbury, where unsurprisingly, he didn’t have the pace to ever really threaten.
As a result of that run however, he has been dropped 2lb in the handicap, which is very nice of the handicapper.
Outside of Master Neo, it looks quite a tricky race to solve…
Incentivise and Kaybeew are the most experienced chasers in the field and probably set the standard. Both are also in pretty good form, so if Master Neo doesn’t perform, it would be no surprised to see them fight out the finish.
A case could be made for Benheir – similar to that for Master Neo
However, he finished just behind Master Neo at Newbury and I’ll be surprised if he shows the greater improvement of the pair over today’s test.
In short, I think Master Neo is a very good bet – I just wonder if I maybe under-staked him slightly. Time will tell, I guess…
0.5pt win Master Neo 8/1
Earlier on the card, I was half tempted to put up Stow as an early bird tip, at 7/1 last night...
Despite a slight concern about dropping him back in trip, I could certainly see a scenario in which he would both shorten significantly in the betting – and run a very big race.
However, at the time, Rebecca Curtis has 2 runners in the race (The Jugopoloist has been taken out this morning) and I was struggling to read her intentions, as a consequence…
If The Jugopolist hadn’t been in the race last night, I would probably have taken the plunge and put up Stow.
It will certainly be interesting to see how he performs today (he will love the ground, that’s for sure !).
The other one I was considering for a tip this morning however, was Bendant, who runs in the novice chase at 1:45…
I do think he’ll win – but taking 7/2 in a novice chase on heavy ground, has limited appeal.
There are also a couple of dangers in the race in Hodgson and Last Shot.
I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing him – and if he had been a point bigger, he would have been a tip – but at the price available this morning, I had to pass…
Not much to say about the meeting at Plumpton, I’m afraid…
I could easily see AP riding a treble courtesy of Sir Fredlot, Cantlow & Thunderstorm – but it comes with risks and is unlikely to pay 10/1.
Whilst Captain Tidds should relish the conditions in the chase at 3:05 – and 6/4 isn’t a bad price, if you like such prices…
All in all then, a card that is was very easy for me to leave alone.
TVB.
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