Daily write-up - Dec 28th

Remarkably, all 4 NH meetings have survived the weather and we race today at Leicester and Catterick in the UK – plus Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

Once again, the meeting at Leopardstown stands head and shoulders above the rest in terms of quality, with the feature Lexus chase, arguably the race of the season so far.

Unfortunately, as I mentioned yesterday, I’m struggling to find the time to produce my normal comprehensive write-up, so today’s offering is a bit shorter than normal – hopefully it still contains all the important bits – starting with the rationale for today’s 3 tips:

Leicester 2:40

This doesn’t look the strongest of races – and I’m a little surprised that Red Rouble can be backed at the price he can.

Certainly, his recent form is very good: a win over Nom De Guerre at this course and a second to Plein Pouvoir at the Cheltenham December meeting.

He has only been raised 5lb for those 2 runs, which still makes him look well handicapped. Furthermore as a young horse, who seems to be finding his feet, there is clearly scope for further improvement…

Most of his rivals today, look out of form or not good enough. The obvious exception being the favourite, Ballywatt.

However the way he seemed disinclined to pass a rival he was running all over, last time out, marked him down as one to be wary of.

0.5pt win Red Rouble 6/1

Catterick 2:20

This looks quite an open race and I think it is worth taking a chance that Shadows Lengthen can make a wining debut over fences.

He was at least the equal of all of his rivals over hurdles and he arrives today on the back of a very promising run over hurdles at Leicester.

I marked him down that day as one to be interested in next time out – and whilst I expected that to be over hurdles, I’m happy enough to take the risk on him over fences.

He has run 3 times at Catterick in the past and recorded a first, a second and a third – so he clearly likes the place.

It is difficult to pick out any of his opponents as a specific danger. If forced to nominate one, I would go for Jackies Solitaire, who could prove troublesome with her very light weight.

0.5pt win Shadows Lengthen 12/1

Leopardstown 2:25

This is a high class and hugely competitive race – and Cootamundra has an awful lot to make up on official ratings to get involved. But I think he is capable of surprising one or two…

He is already 9 years old and exposed as of decent – but not outstanding - ability, over hurdles, but he has looked as if he might be able to take his chasing career to a much higher level.

He was in the process of running a mighty race when falling behind Twilight at Galway and he then ran really well behind the top class Oscars Well at Navan.

Both of those races were over 2 miles –and Cootamunda is not a 2 miler…

He will be much better suited by today’s test and I expect Robbie Moran to hold him up out the back and then pick off his rivals one by one.

He’ll need a bit of luck in-running – but if he gets it, this one could be exciting !!

0.5pt EW Cootamundra 33/1

The day’s feature will provide the acid test for Flemenstar. If he wins, I’ll take him seriously for the Gold Cup – but I expect Sir Des Champs to prove his superior over this test.
I can also envisage a really big run from Hidden Cyclone – whilst if the young guns don’t fire, Tidal Bay has shown that he still retains sufficient ability to take advantage.

A truly fascinating contest !

Earlier on the card, I would love to see Voler La Vedette take her revenge on Zaidpour.

I’m a huge fan of the mare – and have little doubt that at her peak, she is the better of the two animals. Though whether she is currently at her peak, is a different matter.

Fingers crossed she re-finds her form and shows what she is capable of.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.