Daily write-up - Dec 7th

Two domestic NH meetings today, at Sandown and Exeter…

As you may have gathered, when I first looked at the cards, yesterday afternoon, I couldn’t believe what I was seeing…

Potential bet after potential bet, was just jumping out at me.

Better still, the initial pricing looked absolutely fine. Non of my fancies were put in at ridiculous prices (hence warranting early-bird notifications) – but they were all at prices which I would have deemed acceptable…

But then, as the evening trundled on, acceptable prices became slightly less acceptable prices – and worse was to follow, as I heard the sound of rain pounding on my window…

I’ve got to be honest and say that until that point, I had not considered the possibility of rain.

All week, it has been about ice and whether meetings would survive – we’ve not had any rain for over 10 days.

But it came last night – and it came with avengance.

It was like the Friday night of the Cheltenham November meeting, all over again…

L

The only difference this time, was that I was aware of the situation the evening before and so I was able to look at the impact that heavy ground would have on my potential selections – and it did not make good reading (particularly as I had already backed most of them !).

I really can’t over-state the importance of ground conditions on horses – particularly when the ground goes to the extreme (either very soft or very hard).

All horses are put together differently (a little like humans !) – and some have conformations that work well in heavy ground – whereas others don’t…

Whether it is the angle that their hooves strike the ground; how high they raise their knees when galloping; whether bits of them hurt when running on quick ground – or simply that their size and muscle distribution is more suited to a particular type of ground.

The bottom line is that some horses perform on extremes of ground – and others don’t

Ofcourse, it isn’t even that simple: sometimes we don’t knew whether a horse will perform on a particular type of ground – we just have to guess…

Anyway, I had the significant change in the ground conditions to take into consideration – as well as the price movements (which I’m getting used to – but are still very irritating) – and as a consequence, I’ve backed off most of the planned tips…

Whether this is the right thing to do, time alone will tell.

However, I simply couldn’t justify tipping some of the horses I had on my list, at the prices available – with significant concerns over their ability to handle the prevailing going…

I spent last night going through 5 races in detail.

My finding are written up below – along with the bets, where they have been advised.

More than most days, it is going to be important that you read my thoughts as opportunities may arise during the afternoon, as we get greater clarity on the actual state of the ground at the 2 courses…

Starting with Sandown…

1:10

Around 5:00 yesterday evening, I was looking at Wings of Smoke as my best bet of the day. This morning, he is not even a tip.

The reason, quite simply, the ground…

Precisely a week ago, Wings of Smoke cruised to victory in a hot handicap at the Newbury winter meeting.

He won really easily that day – and already one of the horses that finished behind him, Drumshambo, has come out and franked the form…

Because it was a conditional jockeys race, Wings of Smoke doesn’t pick up a penalty for that victory – and so he gets to run off the same mark today. Better still, his very capable jockey is able to claim 5lbs – so he is effectively running off a lower mark.

However, looking through his form, his achilles heel seems to be soft  ground. He has never won on it – and he has tried a few times. He is a strong travelling horse – but soft ground just seems to find him out.

That coupled with Sandown’s hill finish gives me serious doubts about his ability to get home.

I’m sure he will travel through the race – and I dare say, around the Pond fence, he will look likely to win. But whether he will get home, is a completely different matter.

One who I do think will get home is Sustainability. He won 3 hurdle races on the bounce last season and all on very soft ground. He also ran very well on this seasonal debut at Exeter where he looked likely to win, until fading after the final fence. If that run has brought him on as expected, he will make formidable opponent for Wings of smoke today – and if the 2 of them are battling up the Sandown hill, I can only see one victor…

The other one that needs to be thrown into the mix, is Thanks for Coming.

He still has plenty of potential – though I do also wonder about his ability to stay 2m4f on heavy ground.

Looking at the race today, if forced to try and pick the winner, I would go for Sustainability – however the margin isn’t there to warrant a tip at 3/1.

A better play might be the forecast with Wings of Smoke – if that is something you are in to…

2:55

Mukerty Tunkerty was a tip yesterday evening –and he’s still a tip today (the only survivor from the original list  !).

In truth, I have some doubts about the ground for him – but he is unproven either way and I hope he will have sufficient in hand to cope with it regardless…

Certainly his trouncing of the now 138 rated Bradley at Warwick last January, suggests he could have plenty in hand of his current handicap mark.

That piece of form would entitle him to a rating in the 140s – so running off a mark of 122 today, he has the potential to be a handicap good thing…

You always have to be suspicious of a single piece of form – but Munkerty Tunkery has other pieces of form to help make his case more solid…

He has been a top class PTP horse who made his debut under rules in last months Bangor race, won by Quartz De Thaix.

Considering he was likely to need the run, Munkerty Tunkerty ran very well that day, as he was continually hassled for the lead by Buffalo Bob.

Ultimately he payed the price for battling with that one – but I have no doubt he will have come on for the run and provided he doesn’t get into a similar battle today, I would expect him to run much better.

He is slick jumper, so the Sandown fences should be perfect for him – provided he can establish a rhythm.

He also has a very capable amateur pilot in Josh Guerriero. He threatened to make a big impact a few years ago – but then vanished from the scene. I honestly don’t know what happened to him but I saw enough of him back then to know that Monkerty won’t lack for assistance from the saddle..

Of his opponents, cases can be made for Dashing George, Satou and  Brackloon High – though I would consider the biggest potential danger to be top weight, Deireadh Rei.

However, if Monkerty perform to the level I believe him capable of, he should simply be too good for his rivals…

0.5pt win Monkerty Tunkerty 11/2

3:30

I’m sure most of you will recall that Able Deputy was one that got away in November…

I tipped him on the Saturday morning at 33/1 and he was backed into 10/1 at the off.

He cruised into the lead round the home turn - however, a combination of the ground; the hill and lack of race sharpness, caught him out and he faded to finish fifth…

He runs off the same mark today - though with Jason Maguire replacing a 7lb claimer. I’m a big fan of using claiming jockeys to reduce weight – but in this instance I think it is the right thing to do. Able Deputy possibly got the better of his conditional jockey at Cheltenham – I can’t see him doing likewise with Maguire today.

So, last night, at 8/1, on decent ground, and with a run under his belt, I was prepared to bet on his ability to get up the slightly less pronounced Cheltenham hill…

However, roll on 12 hours and he is 6/1 and the ground is heavy. What should I do ?!?

I’ve opted not to tip him.

Not because I don’t think he can win – that isn’t the case. But because on balance, with doubts about his stamina and deep underfoot conditions, I just don’t think there is a lot of margin in a quote of 6/1 for him to beat 15 rivals.

Granted most of his rivals are not likely to be much good – but a few of them are (and a lot are unknown) – and I’ll be very surprised if one or two of them don’t relish today’s conditions better than he does…

As with Wings of Smoke, I full expect to see him coming there round the home turn, pulling a cart – but getting home from that point , will be a different matter..

And so, over to Exeter…

1:30

I’m sure this is getting a bit tedious to read (but I need you all to feel my pain !) – but I really thought I had a good bet in this race, until the rain came…

The horse I was targeting was Graduation Night, who has really caught my eye the last twice he has run.

Both times he was staying on well at the end of 3 mile chases – suggesting strongly that what he needed was a step up in trip. And low and behold today he is running in a 4m chase.

However, despite having won once on soft (which connections were adamant he did despite the conditions rather than because of them) Graduation Night does seem to have a very definite preference for decent going.

This coupled with him entering unknown territory trip wise, makes him a very risky proposition today.
I’m not saying he can’t win – but I’m not prepared to tip him to do so…

However, I do think there is one in the race (well two actually – but more of that later) for whom conditions today will be perfect…

That horse is Our Island, who has shown time and again that heavy ground holds no fears for him…

Most notably last season, he finished a fine second to Cannington Brook at Haydock on ground that was so deep it was almost unraceable.

He finished to such affect that day, he nearly collared the winner, something that looked impossible on the run to the last.

He followed that up with a fair sixth in the Welsh National - off a mark of 130 (5lb higher than he runs off today).

On his seasonal debut this year, he won in Heavy ground at Kelso before disappointing a little on quicker ground at Wetherby.

As a result of that, he gets to wear a visor today, which is presumably designed to sharpen him up a bit. Whether you want him to be sharpened up for a run over 4 miles, where stamina is going to be all that is required, is a different matter – but I’ll trust Tim Vaughans judgement on that matter.

What I am very happy about, is having Richard Johnson in the saddle – there can be no better jockey for a ‘lazy’ horse…

The other one briefly worth a mention is Arbour Supreme.

He has shown very little lately – but at his best he would dot up in this.

He will handle the conditions – and has the very talented Maurice Linehan taking off 7lb pounds.

He would have been worth a saver at the 16/1 on offer last night – and still may be worth recovering stakes on him at 10/1.

0.5pt win Our Island 7/1

3:15

A little like Wings of Smoke, I was very keen on The Big Freeze when I first saw the runners for this race.

He ran very well in defeat for us at Musselburgh, where he seemed to struggle corning on the tight track…

Exeter is a lot more galloping so that shouldn’t be an issue today.

Also, the opposition he faces looks quite limited…

However the issue with The Big Freeze (yes, you’ve guessed it), is the ground.

He is totally unproven on it…

In a way, being unproven on it is better than being proven not to like it – but all the same, it can’t really be considered a positive…

If he does act on the ground, he should take the beating – though Musical Wedge looks a worthy opponent and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a big run from Russian Song on his return after 609 days on the sidelines…

So there you have it – a day that promised so much, but that I’ve had to back off from quite significantly…

There has to be a real possibility that they day will end in massive frustration – but that is the chance I’ll have to take.

My choice was to tip regardless (at lower odds and with less suitable conditions) – or reign back and wait for things to fall better for us another day.

If anyone feels I’ve made the wrong decision, then you now have the ammunition to act – otherwise, we’ll just have to keep our fingers crossed that we don’t end up ruing another ‘might have been’ day !!

TVB.