Daily write-up - Dec 14th

It’s the first day of the 2 day ‘International’ meeting at Cheltenham today – with NH racing also taking place at Bangor.

I’ve focused all of my efforts on the Cheltenham fixture – not because of my love of the place (though that obviously helps) – but more because the Bangor fixture isI pretty uninspiring…

I was actually half tempted to tip Flying Award in the 1:00 race at Bangor. He was 3/1 last night – which in a 4 horse race, where I would make him the most likely winner, seemed decent enough value.

However the favourite has been taken out the race this morning – and he’s now a 5/4 shot.

I can let him win untipped at that price…

I found the rest of the Bangor meeting easy enough to pass on – though it must be significant that AP goes up there to ride Malt Master in the first – before travelling down to Cheltenham for rides in the later races there…

However, this fact is not likely to go unnoticed by the betting public, so another watching brief is advised…

Anyway, enough about the meeting I’m not interested in – and onto the meeting I am interested in !!

Once again, rain is threatening to have a major impact on today’s going at Cheltenham.

The ground yesterday was described as ‘good to soft’ – but it’s not hard to imagine it being on the heavy side of soft by the end of today, with rain looking set for the duration.

Therefore, we need something that we relish soft ground – and hopefully I’ve managed to find a few that will…

As I tend to for these big meetings, I will provide a brief preview for each of the days races – along with details of any advised bets…

12:15

A potentially interesting novice chase – though I will be a little surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the first 2 in the betting…

Both Broadbackbob and Super Duty were very decent novice hurdlers last season – and early indications are that both will be at least as good over the bigger obstacles…

Broadbackbob was a comfortable winner on his chasing debut at Plumpton – though it is debatable what he beat.

Whilst Super Duty ran in a much hotter novice event at Haydock and only found Pungach too good.

There was no disgrace in that defeat however, and in receipt of 5lb from Broadbackbob, I would make him the most likely winner.

Of the others, Hildisvini, Forgotten Gold and Rebel Rebellion are all decent horses – but probably not quite good enough to win today.

Rebel Rebellion is probably the most interesting of that trio, stepped up in trip having been outpaced by Captain Conan at the last meeting.

I see little margin in the prices on offer – but if forced to bet, I would side with Super Duty at 5/2

12:45

I was so disappointed when I saw the prices for this race…

Valley View is a horse I’ve been waiting weeks to back. He showed decent form as a 5 year old last season, when he won a brace of chases in the middle of the winter.

On his seasonal reappearance at Carlisle, he travelled like the best horse in the race until either the trip, the ground, or the fact he was in need the run, caught him out over the final few fences.

As a result of that run, he has been dropped 2lb in the handicap – and I’m absolutely sure he can win off his new mark of 120.

Additionally, he is reunited with Maurice Linehan today. Linehan will be a star of the future – mark my words on that. I keep on expecting Jonjo to take advantage of his claim and pull off a big coup - but he hasn’t really used him as I expected…

That said, recent signs are that his is maybe going to be using him a little more this season. He was on Arbor Supreme the other day – and he booking for Valley View today is a massive positive.

For a start, he receives 6lb from fellow conditional jockeys – that is an absolute joke ! He is already at least the equal of most of the jockeys he faces today, so a weight concession is a gift.

Valley View looks absolutely bomb proof to me today – but I’m so disappointed by the price…

I was expecting 6/1 – and maybe even 8/1 – so having to take 4/1, is a real blow.

As a consequence, I’ve adjusted my stake downwards and he is now only a half point win bet.

It’s not that I fancy him any less – just that I don’t see a lot of value in the price, when he’s got 12 fences to safely negotiate and a number of talented rivals to beat.

If the going gets really heavy, I would fear our old friend Plein Pouvoir (though I do wonder if Cheltenham is his course); whilst on decent ground, I could have seen Lexicon Lad running a big race.

The other 2 that caught my eye were Upthemsteps and Red Rouble – but if Valley View is the horse I believe he is, provided he jumps round OK and gets a little bit of luck in running, I think he will be very hard to beat.

0.5pt win Valley View 4/1

1:20

If the ground was decent – and the stable in any kind of form – then I would have been quite keen on Nampour in this.

He is handicapped to go close  – but they are two pretty big negatives and just put me off him too much.

Him aside however, I am struggling to see much of an angle into the race…

Dark Lover, Turn Over Sivola and Tyom Du Lys are probably the most likely winners. However they represent the top connections in the game and are priced up as the first 3 in the betting – so no prizes for originality on my behalf !

Of the longer priced runners, Bold Chief could be interesting if you are prepared to forgive his last run – but all in all, assuming the ground is on the soft side, this a race I’m quite happy to pass on.

1:55

Some of you might be thinking that I’m tipping Quartz De Thaix here, simply because he did us a favour on his seasonal debut at Bangor – but nothing could be further from the truth.

When I first looked at the race, he was one that I wasn’t really interested in. He is running off a career high mark today, on the back of a victory at Haydock (when I tipped against him).

So although today’s’ ground and trip are fine for him – and he is clearly on an upward curve, he didn’t tick one of the boxes that I first look at when I try to solve a race.

However, when I looked a little deeper, I saw significant flaws in the cases for pretty much every other runner…

Midnight Chase is handicapped close to his max – and I don’t think he will be at his best on soft ground.

Similarly Planet of Sound is highly unlikely to relish today’s underfoot conditions

Sainte Are is another who wouldn’t want it soft ground – and he has never really shown his form at Cheltenham either.

Becauseicouldntsee could easily run into a place – but I’ll be a little surprised if he is good enough to win.

I would view Bradley in a similar vein – though accepting he is a little less exposed.

In fact, I would think that those 2 – plus Mater Overseer – would all be better over a longer trip than they will get today.

Billie Magern has been out of form – and isn’t guaranteed to relish today’s test and Crash is horribly out of form – and out of the handicap too !
So, as you can see, Quartz De Thaix kind of picked himself.

To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes ’when you have eliminated the impossible whatever remains, no matter how unlikely, must be the winner’

I just hope Quartz De Thaix is a fan of Conan Doyle ;)

0.75pt win Quartz De Thaix 5/1

2:30

I normally quite enjoy trying to solve the cross country chases – and often end up with quite a strong bet in them – but that isn’t the case today…

I’m not really sure why. I think that instinctively, I must feel that the market has got it about right.

Uncle Junior was very impressive in winning at the last meeting – and even with his welter burden, I suspect he will take the beating today.

Bostons Angel is theoretically well handicapped on his form over conventional fences: whilst Arabella Boy could well be the next cross country specialist from the Enda Bolger production line.

However, you are not going to get rich backing any of them – and it’s not easy to find a credible alternative.

If forced to have a bet in the race, I would probably select Maljimar EW – and hope that he finds the necessary reserves of energy to get himself up that final hill !!

3:05

Three horses stand out in this race, as having significant potential to improve beyond their current marks: At Fishers Cross; Saint Roque and Inish Island.

However, the market has not missed them – and whilst I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see one of them win – I would be surprised to see all 3 run as the betting suggests and fill the first 3 places.

The reason for this is that they are all quite risky. Their prices are based on potential rather than proven form.

Taking them out of the race, leaves a race that looks much easier to solve by conventional methods (ie. the assessment of form).

Using that method, I think Monetary Fund has a very good chance.

He ran at the last meeting here, on similar ground to that which he is likely to encounter today – and over a trip 2 furlongs longer.

Entering the home straight, he looked the most likely winner of the race – but he didn’t quite get home.

Over 2 furlongs shorter today, I would be hopeful that won’t be an issue.

He has been raised 2lbs for that run – but still gets to meet the runner up, Cross Kennon on 3lb better terms.
He also carries 19lb less than that one today – and as the younger horse, should have more scope for improvement…

Outside those mentioned, I could see Counting House running another decent race.

However, once again the ground has gone against him and whilst a placing is a possibility, a win would seem unlikely.

The same could be said of Monetary Fund – and if one of the 3 unexposed horses is way ahead of it’s mark, then a placing is the best he is likely to get. However, if that is not the case, then I think Monetary Fund will go very close today.

0.5pt EW Monetary Fund 16/1

3:40

A really trappy novice hurdle to end proceedings…

A case can be made for most of the runners – but the 2 I would be most interested in are Village Vic and Melodic Rendezvous.

The former was a disappointing favourite behind Coneygree at the last meeting.

However he is dropped back in trip to the minimum distance today – and in terms of form in the book, he is the one to beat.

One that might be able to improve past him however, is Melodic Rendezvous.

He finished second in the championship bumper at the Punchestown festival last season, in desperate conditions.

He made a satisfactory hurdling debut at Exeter a few weeks back, behind Mr Mole. If he can build on the promise he showed there, then he might prove too good for today rivals

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.