Early-bird tips

I’m conscious that activity in the early bird area, has stalled over the past couple of weeks…

There is a good reason for this, in that if I tip a horse as an early-bird the price will almost certainly crash, meaning that I won’t subsequently be able to tip it as a main-line tip.

As the service will be judged on the success of the main-line tips, there is therefore a danger that I will end up disadvantaging myself, by issuing early-bird tips…

However, the reality is that most over-priced horses, will be backed the night before, regardless of whether I tip them or not…

I know from the survey responses that I’ve received back so far, that you are split on whether early bird tips are a good thing or not. My view is that whilst only a few of you are ever likely to be able to get on, there is little downside to them…

Consequently I’m going to look to start issuing early-birds tips on a more regular basis – starting from this evening.

However, you should bear in mind that what I’m trying to do is identify over-priced horses. So the horses in question will represent value – but won’t necessarily be the horses I consider most likely to win the race…

Bearing this in mind, you may want to adjust your stakes (I would suggest that making an early-bird point half the value of a main-line point, might be a good idea).

If you are that way inclined, I would also suggest that laying the horse on BF after the initial price crash has taken place (assuming it does indeed materialise) might not be a bad thing to do…

If you don’t want to lay them back, then I’m sure sufficient early–bird tips will win to make this aspect of the service profitable - but I suspect it will be highly volatile – with a good few long losing runs…

If anyone has any questions on any of the above, please feel free to get in touch.

TVB.