Review of the day

I’m sure that a lot of you would have felt that I was irritated yesterday primarily because Captain Chris got nailed in the shadows of the post.

Clearly, I was never going to be happy about that (!) – but these things happen…

There is absolutely nothing I can do about that kind of ‘luck’. I can find horses that run races at big prices – but I can’t make them win.

What really irritated me yesterday, was that I failed to tip Jacksonslady, when I thought it the most likely winner of the 2 mile chase (and a gift at 12/1 !).

I didn’t put it up simply because it was running in the same race as Rubert and I would never have forgiven myself if I’d not tipped Rubert and it had won.

Of course, what I should have done, was tip them both. However, as I’ve said before, when you are struggling to get a run of profits going, you tend to act more cautiously than you should and look to ‘save’ points wherever possible.

So as a consequence, I only tipped Rubert in the race – and we lost out on a 12/1 winner…

Roll on 24 hours and I was faced with almost exactly the same situation.

My alerts told me to tip Kaffie – and I had no issue with that. However, my form reading told me that Tweedledrum had just as good a chance and was more than twice the price.

What should I do ?

Clearly, I wasn’t going to be happy if Kaffie won and I’d not tipped it – but I could say the same for Tweedledrum.

Hence a split bet across the two of them and an 18/1 winner bagged.

They really are fine lines !

More generally, it is my intention to tip a few more horses, in an attempt to minimise that aspect of ‘luck’. Like I say there is nothing I can do about horses that almost win but don’t quite – however, I can takes some steps to minimise the impact of border-line calls.

The days other 2 tips didn’t fare quite so well – though both finished placed and there is reason for thinking that each of them could have done even better, if events had unfolded differently…

In the 2 mile novice hurdle, Bright New Dawn pulled like crazy under restraint in the early stages of the race and it says much for his ability that he was still in with a chance of victory rounding the home turn.

Ultimately, his early exertions took their toll and he could only finish third behind the mightily impressive winner, Jezki.

Whether Bright New Dawn would ever have beaten Jezki is a debatable point. However it would be difficult to argue that he would have finished much closer if either he had settled early in the race- or if Davy Russell had just let him have his head.

Whatever, I expect he will make up for today’s defeat next time – when I would also expect him to be allowed to race from the front…

In the following race, Dicoteca (and the rest of the field) made the mistake of letting the early leader get too far in front and they just couldn’t reel him back in.

Discotecas jumping also left quite a lot to be desired, so again, the fact he finished so close, was testament to his ability.

He is another whom I would fully expect to go one better next time out…

Earlier on the Leopardstown card, Sizing Europe managed to hold off the renewed Challenge of Rubi Light – but only just…

As I said this morning, today’s conditions were never going to be ideal for Sizing so it was to his credit that he managed to come out on top.

In the Paddy Power chase, I latched on to the wrong plot horse and it was AP and Colbert Station who were backed into favouritism and came home in front.

Connections will be pleased to have got this victory out of him and I suspect that anything else he manages to achieve will be a bonus.

Over at Kempton, Simonsig was mightily impressive in the novice chase. He really does look like the next Sprinter Sacre !

Menorah ran out a game winner of the Peterborough chase. When thing go his way, he is a horse of significant ability – and things went his way today.

Finally, Sanctuaire put up a tremendous performance to win the Desert Orchid chase.

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who thought him beaten when Wishful Thinking and Kumbeshwar went passed. However Ruby clearly had saved quite a bit and he responded very well to forge clear between the final 2 fences.

In a normal year, he would have a live chance in the Queen Mother champion chase – but in a year when Sprinter Sacre is around, he is likely to battling for second place at best.

Finally, I really struggled to do the daily write-up today…

As it is the Christmas holiday, my responsibilities (amongst other things !) including looking after a four year old and a seven year old.

Trying to pull together the words to explain the chances of the various tips, with them buzzing around me, was nearly impossible…

I’ve no issue with the form study (which I do the day before) or the issuing of the tips (which takes 2 minutes): but the daily write-up might be a little shorter than normal tomorrow, as my head is likely to explode if I try to repeat today’s juggling act !

TVB.