Review of the day

No joy this afternoon, which I have to say, came as something of a surprise…

I don’t know how much you can pick up from the tone of the daily write-up, but I really fancied today’s 3 tips (well 2 of them, at least) – but unfortunately their performances didn’t live up to my expectations.

I guess it is a good job we have a staking system to protect us !!

In fairness I guess, a couple of them ran reasonably well – most notably Fine Parchment.

He was still just about in the lead, and in the process of running a very good race, when he made his only mistake of the contest at the second last – and unseated his jockey…

It is impossible to know whether he would have been able to hold on. Whilst he was still just about in front, he was also coming under pressure. That said, you couldn’t be sure that he wouldn’t have picked up for urgings. It certainly would have been interesting to see…

Alas, it wasn’t to be – and fate was quick to take back the slice of luck it gave us yesterday. I just wish it was as quick the other way round !!

Earlier at Mussleburgh, Creekside had also run a fair race – but again, not as good as I hoped and expected…

The issue for him – as I suspected it might be – was him jumping. It wasn’t particularly slick – and it was constantly out to his left.

In the circumstance’s he therefore did quite well to still be in with a decent chance down the home straight.

However a significant blunder at the second last put paid to whatever chance he had and he eventually came home in fourth place.
Based on today’s performance, I would say it is debatable whether he will have a career as a chaser – though maybe connections can sharpen up his jumping.

Even more disappointing in the race, was the performance of Civil Unrest. As I said this morning, I had not seen a more measured round of jumping all season, than the one he put in on his chasing debut. However today, he looked like a completely different animal. It just shows you what can happen when a horse is asked to run a stride or two quicker than they are comfortable doing.

I would say that a step back up in trip is inevitable for him…

The last tip of the day to run was Nez Rouge.

I often have to make snap decision over the staking of my tips (and even sometimes, over whether to tip a horse at all !).

As you’ve doubtless noticed, my default stake is 0.5pt win – and I adjust from that base depending on how strongly I fancy something…

I set Nez Rouge at 0.5pt win – but when I started to pull together the justification for tipping him, my confidence grew significantly. If I’d been able to tip at that point, he would have been staked as 0.75pt win – possibly even more !
It was therefore hugely disappointing to see him run no sort of a race – and eventually get pulled up.

I was actually a little concerned before the race started. Bearing in mind how I felt, I was very surprised to see the horse drift from 6 on BF (he had been backed into that price early) out to 13, in the key few minutes prior to the off.
That kind of drift always sets alarm bells ringing – and it certainly proved to be prophetic today…

In truth, I struggle to explain such a performance. Maybe the ground was softer than he cared for –I honestly don’t know.
All I know is that based on the form book, he should have run better than that…

Finally, the 2 other mentions for the day didn’t do a lot to balance the books…

Categorical ran really well for the first circuit at Musselburgh (he was given a completely different ride to last time at Cheltenham). However, he was a spent force by the time the runners reached the home straight and he finished well beaten.

Meanwhile in the Finale at Fakenham Terre Du Vent also finished well beaten (she actually didn’t finish).

Again, that was difficult to foresee based on her form – and also the weight of money that forced her down to 8/11 at the off.

She travelled nicely for three quarters of the race, but as soon as pressure was applied she started to flounder.

Maybe the Fakenham ground was also too soft for her to handle…

TVB.