The final day of Newbury’s winter festival – plus meetings at Newcastle and Towcester domestically – and Fairyhouse in Ireland…
If I’m honest, I find today’s racing slightly disappointing, for a Saturday.
The Newbury card is fine – though with 2 races that aren’t really betting mediums, opportunities there are limited.
The biggest disappointment however, is the poor cards at Towcester – and, in particular, Newcastle…
I know there has been a cloud hanging over the Newcastle meeting all week (both metaphorical –and literal) and that certainly hasn’t helped things – but with 4 runners in the feature event (the fighting fifth hurdle) and 5 runners in the main support race (the rehearsal chase) – 3 of which are running from out of the handicap, it is the poorest turn out that I have ever seen. Matters aren’t helped by the other races on the card – which are all very weak, for a Saturday.
In short, if the weather had claimed it, I don’t think it would have been much of a loss…
Anyway, enough of the negativity – and on to more positive things – today’s tips !
All bar one are running at Newbury and whilst, once again, I don’t think any are certainties, I would hope they will all run well – and they all certainly represent a bit of value…
12:15
Clearly, the top 2 in the betting, Hunters Lodge and Rey Nacarado, are the ones to beat in this.
However, collectively, they take our almost 50% of the book – and I’m not sure they quite warrant that…
There are a few other interesting runners lurking down the weight, but non more so than Flying Award…
He is a lightly raced 8 year old, who has won 3 of his 12 starts and looks to be quite progressive…
Certainly the performance he put up last February, on only his second run over fences, was the best of his career so far.
Considering his inexperience, he jumped well that day and showed admirable battling qualities to get up on the line.
His seasonal debut at Exeter was also very eye-catching.
He was back over hurdles that day, presumably to blow away the cobwebs – but he ran really well.
Entering the home straight it looked inconceivable that he wouldn’t be at least placed in that race. However, he didn’t quite get home and eventually finished quite a well beaten fifth.
I suspect he will leave that run behind today – and if that is the case, and his jumping inexperience doesn’t catch him out – then I think he can run a very big race at a very decent price.
0.5pt win Flying Award 16/1
1:25
This a very tricky race – and one where it is impossible to be confident about the outcome. However, I am optimistic that the fitting of blinkers to Seven Woods, will have the desired effect and enable him to better harness his undoubted potential.
Seven Woods has only run 4 times under rules in his life. 3 of those runs were over hurdles and he performed creditably on each occasion…
First time out, he finished third to the now 139 rated Poole Master; on his second outing, he finished runner up behind the very promising Goulanes; and on his final outing, he beat Duke of Monmouth.
All 3 of those runs, suggest that Seven Woods is worth a rating of around 130 over hurdles - with potential to improve quite a bit further…
On his chasing debut in October, Seven Woods ran third behind Houblons Des Obeaux and Valmari – again running to a mark of around 130…
Off 125 today, Seven Woods could be considered well handicapped on his bare form – but I suspect he has quite a lot more to offer.
Not only is he inexperienced - but he also seems a bit immature (he ran in snatches at Worcester).
As I said, if the blinkers make him focus more on the job in hand, then I suspect he could put in a performance of a 140 rated horse –and that is likely to be god enough to win this contest today…
Of his rivals, then Global Power certainly warrants a serious mention – and I would rate him as the main danger.
Two at bigger prices worthy of consideration are Sherwani Wolf and Master Neo. The latter finished just behind Seven Woods at Worcester and on the book, there should be very little between the 2 of them today.
Master Neo is a much bigger price – but I think that is because he looks far more of a stayer. Over a longer trip or in heavy ground, he will be one to look out for - but hopefully not today !
0.5pt win Seven Woods 9/1
3:10
The 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup looks just as competitive as the majority of the renewals that have preceded it.
Again, it is a race where it is impossible to be categoric about the likely outcome – but I do think I’ve found a horse capable of running a big race at a big price…
Frutiy O’Rooney is a horse that most people are going to dismiss – partially because he’s been a round for a while, generally plying his trade at lower grade courses; and partially because he has got such a stupid name !
However, I think dismissing him might be a mistake…
Looking at his form from last season, what is so striking is how consistent and progressive he was.
He never ran a bad race – and he seemed to improve race on race. This is borne out by his Racing Post rating, which improved with every race – apart from his final outing, when he just didn’t stay the extreme distance of the Scottish Grand National.
He best run of the campaign was his second place in the 3 mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham festival.
He was actually a little unlucky not to win that day, just getting nailed on the line by Alfie Sherrin.
On that form he clearly holds both The Package and Hold on Julio – and yet they are both priced up at a third of his odds…
The other nice thing about Fruity, is his running style.
He likes to race prominently, which should keep him away from any trouble that might occur. His seeming indifference over ground conditions in another bonus – it’s difficult to know precisely how the track will ride this afternoon, but whatever the conditions, it shouldn’t unduly affect him…
The one thing he does lack, is that bit of star quality - and if anything in the race posses it, then they are likely to beat him…
Bobs Worth is the most obvious ‘star’ contender - but he is priced accordingly. First Lieutenant would be another - but I would have some reservation over him if the grounds is holding.
I could also make a case for both Frisco Depot and Duke of Lucca – whilst if he should miraculously bounce back to form, Diamond Harry would likely dot up off his current mark…
However, all things being equal, I think Fruity O’Rooney represents the most solid option in the race – at the prices…
0.5pt EW Fruity O’Rooney 28/1
3:40
Renard is a horse I tipped last time out, in the Halden Gold cup at Exeter.
He proved no match for Cue Card that day and was well beaten. However, Cue Card was clearly different class to the opposition that day and the race wasn’t really a contest.
I’m therefore choosing to ignore the form – and just refer back to my case for selecting him that day.
That was based on a very good seasonal debut at Chepstow, where he travelled through the race like the best horse.
Today he is getting to run off a mark 3lb lower – and only 6lb higher than when he routed a field of fair handicappers at Taunton, last January.
As I see it, that will put him right in the mix today – and as he is still only 7, it is not unreasonable to think that Renard still has some scope for improvement.
Ulk Du Lin and Kateal are probably his 2 most interesting opponents. However, they both disappointed last time out in a race at Stratford and so have a bit to prove today…
Falcon Island and Gus Mcrea are another 2, with linked form, who are worth mentioning, but on balance, I am happy enough with Renard at a perfectly fair price…
0.5pt win Renard 12/1
Finally, I have a single tip at Fairyhouse…
1:20
I’m sure a lot of you will think that this tip is purely sentimental – but you would be wrong !
My gut reaction was not to tip Monastrell today, as even a victory would be scant consolation for the one that got away last month.
However, looking at the race, I think he has a very good chance - and odds of 10/1 (he’s actually 12/1 with Boylesports as I type this) are just too big to pass up…
I won’t go into the great detail on the reasons for backing him, as I think we are all pretty familiar with him by now !
Suffice to say, he has got conditions he should relish today – and whilst Andy Lynch is away at Newcastle, Davy Condon is familiar with the horse.
He has been raised 5lb for his defeat by Pires. However, Pires was a very well handicapped horse, so losing to him was no disgrace.
It was 7 lengths back to the third that day, so if you take Pires out of the race, Monastrell would have been a comfortable winner.
A 7lb rise under those circumstances would hardly be punitive.
Furthermore, it puts Monastrell on a mark of 128 –and I’m sure he can be competitive off a mark such as that.
He is actually 2lb better off with Far away so Close, despite having beaten that one on his seasonal debut last year. Far away so Close is a 6/1 shot today – which I think independently illustrates there is value in Monastrell – and that he is not just a sentimental selection ! (as if TVB would ever do such a thing !!)
0.5pt win Monastrell 10/1
Here’s to a great day ahead.
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