With the abandonment of both Exeter and Downpatrick this morning, it is left to Towcester to provide the only NH racing of the day.
The course can be hard work at the best of times, but following 26mm of rain over night, the going is likely to be desperate.
I suspect that throughout the afternoon, there will be more horses pulling up than finishing races…
I’ve just got the one tip – and needless to say, it’s a horse that relishes heavy ground. Let’s hope he is good enough to continue our recent positive progress…
2:10
I’ve mentioned before about how I like the stable of Jim Old…
It is not quite the same as your ‘normal’ stable. He only trains a handful of runners and it can go months a without a winner – but when they come, they tend to come in batches.
I’m honestly not sure exactly how many winners he’s had in the last month – I think it is about 4, from around 10 runners…
Whatever, it’s currently showing a very high strike rate – but because he runs so few horses, that fact tends to go unnoticed.
What’s more, it should be even better, as Witches Hat traded at 1.01 when beaten at Folkestone on Tuesday…
So, it’s fair to say that the trainer is in form…
It is also fair to say that the trainer likes Towcester…
I suspect his record is rubbish everywhere else (apart from Chepstow, maybe) but at Towcester, Jim Old has a strike rate of which any trainer would be proud…
In the last 4 years, he has sent out 45 runners at the course and 10 have won (22%). His level stake profit is 22.5. And it is even better over fences (where generally he tends to do better).
So, we have a trainer in form, running a horse at a track that he targets…
What about the horse himself..?
Well, funnily enough, he has won over 3 miles in the heavy at Towcester (though admittedly over hurdles) – so neither ground nor track should cause him an issue.
His 3 other wins have also been on soft going – as was his run last March behind My Boy Pady at Chepstow.
In fact, if it weren’t on the soft side today, I’m sure Round the Horn wouldn’t be running…
And that is one of the issues with the horse – he is clearly fragile. He will be 13 in just over a week and yet today’s run will only be the 14th of his career…
The other issues with him are whether he will be fit enough for what is likely to be an absolute slog – bearing in mind this will be his seasonal debut.
As a rule, Jim Olds horses don’t tend to want for fitness however (they tend to want for pace !). I’ve no idea how he trains them, but I suspect it might well involve running them up very steep hills !
The other issue is whether he is well enough handicapped to win.
He is taking on some horses that were once very good: Miko De Beauchene won a Welsh National a few years back and was rated as high as 153 – off 119, if he retains any ability, he has to go close.
Shaking Hands is the other one I really fear as he should also love the conditions – but he does need to rediscover some kind of form…
However, on balance, I am happy to go with Round the Horn, safe in the knowledge that he will relish the conditions and is from a yard whose inmate are currently running out of their skin !!
0.5pt win Round the Horn 7/1
The only other horse I want to mention today, is Sweet Like You, who runs in the bumper that ends the card.
The subtle signs are very keen on him – and the less subtle ones are quite positive as well.
Certainly I think racecourse experience will be of benefit today (and quite a few of the fancied runner lack that) plus the way she was staying on at the end of her debut run – and her breeding – suggest that she will be right at home in today’s conditions.
6/1 is not quite the price I was hoping for – but I don’t suppose many of you will be complaining if she comes home in front.
Here’s hoping for a good day !
TVB.
TVB.
No comments:
Post a Comment