Daily write-up - Dec 8th

A veritable feast of racing today, with domestic meetings at Sandown, Aintree, Chepstow and Wetherby – plus an intriguing card at Navan…

I was, quite literally spoilt for choice yesterday evening – though it soon became apparent that in order to produce anything worthwhile today, I would need to focus…

I therefore ditched Wetherby and Navan quite early – and Sandown followed not long after….

In fairness, all 3 cards have their merits - the Sandown one in particular – but there are only so many hours in the evening and the cards at Aintree an Chepstow looked more likely to yield potential bets.

I’ve ended up with tips in 3 races at Chepstow – and 2 at Aintree.

It could easily have been the other way round – as always, there were borderline calls to be made.

That said, I felt a little more comfortable with the borderline calls today.

There is not the same pressure on prices on a Saturday morning that there is on other days.
Watching oddschecker, one or two of the horses I fancied actually drifted (and resulted in one extra bet).

As always, we will need a bit of luck today – however, I feel we are seriously in credit on that score, so lets hope today we get some pay back…

Onto the rationale for the tips then – starting at Aintree, with the bet of the day…

Aintree 1:35

We were on Bathwick Brave last Friday, when he ran at Newbury…

He was travelling ominously well that day, when he stepped at the fifth last hurdle and took a crashing fall. It was too far out to be categoric – but my feeling was that he was going to go very close that day…

The race was eventually won by African Gold, who had beaten Beeves on his previous outing. Those two horses come out of that race as almost the same horse, so if we assume that Bathwick Brave would have gone close last Friday, it is difficult to understand why he is twice the price of Beeves today…

On his previous outing at Uttoxeter, Bathwick Brave had been a mighty impressive winner. He ploughed through the mud that day – and I’m sure he won’t have any issues with today’s conditions (or indeed the weight he has to carry as he is a huge horse).

The other main player in the race looks to be Master of the Sea.
He was a comfortable winner at Hereford on Wednesday. He gets a 7lb penalty for that win – which I don’t think will be insurmountable. However, this is a better class race – and he has only had 3 days to recover from it. I’m quite happy to take him on.

Today’s race seems to lack strength in depth as outside those 3, it is difficult to make a concrete case for anything.

I could give half chances to Powerful Ambition and Explained – but you start clutching at straws after that.

In short, Bathwick Brave looks to have a very good chance of wining - and an even better chance of placing.

0.5pt EW Bathwick Brave 7/1

2:20

16 runners over the Grand National fences, you might think this would be a bit of a lottery – but I think In Compliance has a very good chance of victory…

Let’s get the negatives out of the way first: he is a 12 year old (13 at the end of the month) who was pulled up last time out – and is clearly in decline…

Based on the above, he has no chance – however, when you see the list of positives, he looks an absolute certainty !!

He has run over the Grand National course 3 times – completing on each occasion – and running progressively better each time. He actually finished fifth in this year’s Grand National, off a mark 3lb higher than he runs off today.

More than that, he looked likely to win approaching the final fence – until his stamina gave out…

In short, the course should hold no fears for him – he is well handicapped – and he will appreciate today’s shorter trip.

At his peak (admittedly a few years back) In Compliance was serious horse. He once had a rating of 169 – that is the same as the current rating of Sprinter Sacre. If he had run in the Gold Cup that season, he wouldn’t have looked out of place !
Today, he gets to run off a rating of 134 – some 35lb less…

The ground will also be prefect for In Compliance today – something you can’t say for all his rivals.

Another plus point is that his trainer, Dessie Hughes, has sent out 2 of the last 4 winners of this race. For a relatively small stable, that is some strike rate – and it suggests that this is a race he likes to target.

In summary, the positives look so compelling, you wonder why he’s not 2/1 favourite !

Of course, the tricky bit is weighing up the positives and negatives – but on balance, I certainly think he is worth a risk at a best price of 12/1…

Aside from him, my short list would be composed of West End Rocker; Join Together, Big Fella Thanks and Problema Tic. I’ll be surprised if the winner comes form outside this 5 – though they do make up the top half of the betting, so I’ll get no prizes for originality !

0.5pt win In Compliance 12/1

In the final race on the card, I was very tempted to tip Little Josh…

He is a horse that runs well fresh and will relish the soft ground. He has jumped round the Grand National fences in the past and is handicapped to go very close today…
However, this looks a particularly tricky race. I can give a chance to at least half a dozen of the runners – so with luck likely to be a factor, I simply couldn’t bring myself to tip Little Josh at a best price of 9/2…

Over to Chepstow…

2:05

In a way, it goes against he grain to tip a horse carrying 11st 12lb in the mud at Chepstow…

However, Cannington Brook has previous in these conditions – and with this kind of weight…

He was victorious twice at Haydock last season in ground that was virtually unraceable. On the second occasion, he carried 11st 12lb and won by 35 lengths hard held. He should be able to handle today’s ground…

He is running off a handicap mark 10lb higher today – but first time out this season, he showed that his new maker is unlikely to be beyond him, by finishing a very good sixth at Ascot. As well as it being his seasonal, debut, conditions weren’t ideal for him that day – and he was hampered by a faller at the second last fence. All in all, it was a most meritorious performance…

On his latest outing, he ran in the Betfair chase at Haydock. He was no match for Silvianco Conti and friends that day – but wasn’t disgraced in being beaten 25 lengths…

At the other end of the handicap, I want a saver on My Boy Paddy.

He has not got the consistency of form of Cannington Brook – but will receive 26lb from him as a consequence.

He has however shown glimpses of ability; should handle today’s conditions and will be better for he reappearance run at Carlisle.

At 8/1 he seemed like suitable insurance in case Cannington Brook is found out by the extreme test.

0.5pt win Cannington Brook 9/2

0.25pt win My Boy Paddy 8/1

2:40

As was the case at Cheltenham last time out, I can’t let Fishoutofwater run today, without having a little saver on him…

I won’t go into great detail on why I think he has a chance today – those of you who pay attention should know already – and those of you who don’t can go back and look at the rationale for tipping him last time out, on the Sunday of the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham…

Suffice to say, today’s heavy ground and 3 mile trip over hurdles should be fine for him (I might have preferred 2m4f – but he has won over 3 miles). The booking of Patrick Corbett to take off 10lb is a bonus – and he ran very well last time at Cheltenham…

He will win one of these soon – provided the ground stays heavy – and I’m not prepared to take the risk that it will be today at 25/1, without us having a penny on him…

There are similarities with Arbor Supreme yesterday (and funnily enough, they are owned by the same guy ;) ) – let’s hope that the similarities continue right through to the finishing position !

I’m hopeful that we might even have a little divine help with this one – Michael knows why J

0.25pt win Fishoutofwater 28/1

3:15

This is another trappy race – but if Arctic Ben and Noble Legend both decide they want to lead, if could present an opportunity for something held up, to take advantage…

I’m hoping that it might be Highway Code who benefits from such a scenario…

He finished second last time out, behind Broadbackbob, in quite a hot novice chase at Plumpton.

That was a big improvement on his only previous chase run – but maybe shouldn’t have come as such a surprise…

Last season, Highway Code developed into quite useful hurdler.

Following a second to Bally Legend at Fontwell, he comfortably beat Drumshambo in the mud at Exeter.
That win came off a mark of 126 – a pound higher than Highway Code gets to run off today. Furthermore the form of that win has been franked in no uncertain terms recently, by the performances of Drumshambo…

As he is only 6 years old, it is not unreasonable to think that there is still improvement in Highway Code. He also has Micheal Nolan on board today, taking of a very handy 5lbs.

In a raceme that may end up being run to suit, he represents a bit of value at 7/1.

In terms of dangers, then the one I was drawn to was Triptico. He has a similar profit to Highway Code and should also benefit if there is a lot of pace on up front.

However, he was a best priced 7/2 this morning – so relatively easy to pass, even as a saver…

0.5pt win Highway Code 7/1

Just a few quick mentions from the other meetings…

At Sandown, the race of the day is undoubtedly the Tingle Creek chase…

Although it is being billed as a duel between Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire, I’m firmly of the belief that if you are a true NH fan, you don’t see it that way…

Sprinter Sacre is the most exciting chaser we’ve seen for a good few years: whilst Sanctuaire is a dodge pot who hit a bit of form late last season !.

OK – maybe a little harsh – but I really struggle to bring myself to mention them both in the same sentence…

In the flat season just gone, ‘contender’ after ‘contender’ took on Frankel – and all met the same end.
I think that Sprinter Sacre is NH racing’s equivalent of Frankel  - and Santuarie is just the first of this seasons lambs to the slaughter !

Only my take on it of course ;)

In the 1:25 race on the card, I would have liked to tip Big Easy.

He took my eye at Cheltenham last time –and I suspect there is still improvement in him.

However, 6/1 is a very short price in a race where there are quite a few dangers – and a number of unknown quantities…

Over at Wetherby, War Poet runs in the 2:20 race.

I expect him to win – but the course and the soft ground will not suit him as well as Market Rasen would have done earlier in the week.

At roughly the same price, he doesn’t represent the same value.

Earlier on the card, keep an eye on Alan Island in the 12:45.
My guess is that AP is at Wetherby to ride this horse –and I don’t blame him!

Even money is a gift today –and I fully expect him to take high rank amongst the novice chasers at the end of the season.

Finally at Navan, a quick mention for Oscar Well who looks to make up for his last time out fall in the  2:25.

It wont be a formality for him – but I would expect him to prove up to the task provided his jumping doesn’t let him down again.
Keep a close eye on Cootamundra though – there will be worse 14/1 shots running today, that’s for sure…

Whilst in the 1:50 race, Roi Du Mee should be able to take advantage of a hurdles mark 30 lb lower than his chase mark…

However, I would also expect a good run from the veteran Powerstation, who could well reward EW support at a very big price.

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB.