Daily write-up - Dec 19th

There are a couple of reasonable NH cards today, hosted by Newbury and Ludlow respectively…

Between them, they provide 5 races which I considered for tipping. I worked my way through all five yesterday afternoon/evening and found 2 main-line tips and an early bird tip.

Needless to say, I’ve also go a view on the other 2 races…

More of that later however, first the rationale for today’s tips, starting at Newbury…

12:50

I studied this particular race yesterday afternoon, and narrowed the field of 9, down to 5…

The horses I was potentially interest in were: Honest John, Handy Andy, Balbriggen, Fabulous Fred and High Kite.

I could see an argument for Chartreux – but on balance, I was prepared to let him pass…

In terms of form, I think that Handy Andy has the strongest claims – however, the form of the Colin Tizzard stable is a real worry…

Ballbriggen is probably the most solid contender in the race – and if there had been a main-line tip (and I did briefly consider it) he would have been it…

I felt that the other 3 all had fair chances, so it was a question of waiting to see what prices were offered…

When the bookmakers did open up, they broadly agreed with my view of the race- with the exception of Fabulous Fred.

Now in fairness, he was possibly the most risky on my short list – but that said, I believe his chances are a fair bit better than the 14/1 offered…

I would have priced him up around 8/1 – which is roughly the price he has settled on this morning (with Honest John now a NR).

Like I say, the case for him is not solid. However, he has shown glimpses of ability in a career so far curtailed by injury – and he was backed last time at Towcester, like a horse who connections felt was better than his current mark..

He ran OK that day – but his jumping let him down.

He has been dropped a pound for that run – and has Jeremiah McGrath on board today, taking off a further 5lb.

The soft ground at Newbury will be right up his street – and the flat track and well set out fences will hopefully cause him a few less issues than last time.

Like I say, he is not a rock solid selection by any means – but one with a sporting chance – and certainly a chance better than last nights odds of 14/1 implied

Early Bird: 0.5pt win Fabulous Fred 14/1

1:50

Another horse whom I’m hoping will be better suited to the Newbury course, is Sustainability…

I was quite keen on him last time out, when he ran in a hot novice handicap chase at Sandown – but it struck me that he didn’t really act on the track that day…

Sandown can be quite a tough course for an inexperienced chaser – with it’s daunting row of fences in the back straight – and Sustainability just didn’t appear to take to it.

If you get one of the fences wrong, there is very little time to compose yourself before the next one comes along. It certainly isn’t a course that suits all…

If you take that run out of his record, then I think Sustainability can be given a very good chance today.
He was a progressive novice hurdler last season, who has shown that he can handle soft ground.
He also made a promising fencing debut at Exeter, which suggested that there was more to come over the bigger obstacles.

In terms of the opposition, then Double Dash and Balinroab are the most interesting…

The former made a decent re-appearance at the last Newbury meeting in a hot novice handicap chase.

Quite surprisingly, he was backed into favouritism for that contest and he ran with significant promise.

If he can build on that performance he will be a real danger today – however, I think it is just as likely that he will ‘bounce’ (go backwards). That being the case, Sustainability, looks the more solid option.

The other one of some interest is Balinrobe. He makes his handicapping debut today and could be well treated. However, there is a fair amount of guesswork involved in assessing his chances –and the price available means that rewards will be limited. That said, if money were to come for him, I would be worried.

On balance however, Sustainability is the solid option – and a fair enough bet at the prices.

0.5pt win Sustainability 5/1

I’ve not mentioned the ‘subtle signs’ in a little while – but they are quite keen on Veloce in the novice hurdle at 1:20.

This is the race in which the group class Poet makes his hurdling debut – however he never really struck me as wanting a hurdle to jump.

Veloce was rated 30lb lower than Poet over hurdles – but the fact that Donald McCain and Jason Maguire travel all the way down to Newbury with just the one horse, strikes me as quite significant.

At 16/1 he might be worth a very small play…

Over to Ludlow then and the final tip of the day…

2:45

I wouldn’t describe Don’t Tell Sailor as a great tip – but at around 16/1, I do think he is great value…

In fact I would have happily had 0.5pt EW on him at that price but for one thing.

His trainer, Jenny Candlish, has gone 200 days and sent out 76 runners since her last winner.

I’m a big believer in following trainers in form (and avoiding those out of form) and that is quite a strong pointer.
That said, some of her recent runner have been performing with credit - and as we know only too well, luck can be a fickle mistress !!

I’m therefore hoping that her form isn’t as bad as it appears – but I’ve adjusted the stake down a little, just in case !

Like I said, Don’t Tell Sailors form isn’t absolutely rock solid – but it’s not too bad either.

Last season, he finished second to Rigadin to Beauchene and then beat Toby Belch at Leicester (when that one was an early bird tip).

Don’t Tell Sailor gets to run off a mark today, 5lb higher than at Leicester.

He has ruin twice over hurdles this term; first time out, he just blew away the cobwebs at Aintree, but second time was far more encouraging at Haydock, in a decent race behind San Telm, Yesyoucan and Loose Chips.
That was decent form and showed that Don’t Tell Sailor was ready to produce his best.

Aside from him, you can make a case of sorts for most of the other runners. Potentially the most interesting pair are Tour Des Champs and Moonlight Drive.

However they both come with risks and are significant shorter in the betting than Don’t Tell Sailor.

0.25pt EW Don’t Tell Sailor 18/1

In the 1:10 race, I got very close to putting up Preuty Boy as a tip.

However, the issue I have with him, is the same as the issue with Don’t Tell Sailor – stable form…

David Arbuthnot has gone 190 days and sent out 32 runners since his last winner. However, more worrying, his recent runners don’t; seem to be in any sort of form.

Preuty Boy performed best of them, when running last time at Sandown (in Sustainability’s race) – but he was still beaten a long way.

I have little doubt that he is handicapped to win a race such as this – but he is not so well handicapped that I can ignore his stables form.

Maybe worth a tiny little saver - but that is all I could recommend…

Finally, I wanted to take on Drumshambo in 1:40 race – but I couldn’t find anything suitable…

I’m just not sure that Drumshambo is a 2 miler – and Ludlow is quite a sharp track.
However against that, the ground is soft and if there is a lot of pace in the race, his stamina may well become important.

If I had taken him on, it would likely have been with either The Chazer or Russian Flag – but I just couldn’t find sufficient positives with either of them, to make that call.

Here’s to a good day ahead.

TVB.