Daily write-up - Dec 26th

An incredible 11 NH meetings today: 8 in the UK plus 3 more in Ireland…

There will be non-runners all over the place – and with the ground as deep as it is possible to race on, it makes sense to tread very carefully…

I’ve restricted myself to 3 tips today: one in each of the feature races at Kempton; plus another over at Leopardstwon…

Needless to say, I’ve got views on plenty of the other races – but with all the uncertainty, I think it best that they remain just views…!

So, on to the rationale for the tips, starting at Kempton:

2:35

I’m happy enough to take on the 2 markets leaders in this: Countrywide Flame because I think he is being given too much credit for his victory over Cinders and Ashes in the Fighting Fifth; and Darlan because it is his seasonal re-appearance and I’m not convinced that he will relish today’s ground…

Unfortunately, even with those 2 out of the race (from a ‘value’ perspective at least), it is still not that easy to solve…

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Cinders and Ashes bounce back from his Newcastle defeat – and if he does, then 5/1 will look quite generous.

Dodging Bullets could easily be a fair bit better than he has so far shown. He would probably have been the tip – but I’m not convinced that he will relish the desperate ground conditions.

If Nicky Henderson could somehow get Punjabi back in top form he would be favourite to win this – but that is a massive ask, as he has not been seen for nearly 3 years.

Whilst you couldn’t completely rule out Get Me Out of Here, as his stamina could come into play if the races turns into a war of attrition.

However, the one I’m going for is Raya Star.

This time last year, he won the Ladbroke handicap hurdle off a mark of 134 - but he has not stopped improving since then.

That run was followed by a third in the Tote Gold Trophy behind Zarkandar off a mark of 139. He then disappointed at the Cheltenham festival before bouncing back with victory in the Scottish champion hurdle off a mark of 143.

He began this season as he had ended last, with victory this time at Ascot off a mark of 149. And that was followed up by a highly creditable second to Oscar Whisky, again at Ascot.

Raya Star now has a rating of 155 – which makes him officially the third best horse in the race.

He also has a progressive profile and has shown himself capable of handling very soft conditions.

In short, he ticks a lot of boxes…

He doesn’t have the untapped potential of some of the more lightly raced sorts – but I think they all come with risks as well.

I’ll be very surprised if Raya Star doesn’t run his race today – and he would have been a nice EW bet with 8 in the race.

That said, I am happy enough playing win only on a horse whom I believe has a very good chance of victory.

0.5pt win Raya Star 11/1

3:10

A fascinating renewal of the King George chase…

The race has changed shape significantly over the past couple of weeks with the withdrawals of Al Ferof, Sizing Europe, Sir Des Champs and  Finians Rainbow.

Clearly, you needed a bit of luck if you chose to play ante-post in it – and we’ve got that with both of our selections, The Giant Bolster and Captain Chris, making it to the big day.

I’ve also added Grands Crus to the portfolio this morning. I always intended to tip him, if he made the race – but he could never have been an ante-post tip, with so many doubts surrounding his participation.

Even with these 3 on side however, we are not guaranteed to get the winner – in fact, we are not even guaranteed to get one placed !

I still think that Long Run is the most likely winner of the race. However, he is clearly beatable and at 2/1 he offers little in the way of value.

He is well suited to both the track and trip  - and the ground will be fine for him – but there is still that lingering doubt that maybe he isn’t quite as good as was once thought.

If I’m fearful of him however, I am (relatively !) happy to take on the next 2 in the market: Cue Card and Riverside Theatre.

Cue Card is a serious animal – of that there can be little doubt. If the conditions were less testing, I would be very afraid of him, but I have serious doubts about him getting home in today’s ground.

It will depend to an extent on how he is ridden – but even if attempts are made to preserve his stamina, I think they will ultimately prove futile.

I have similar concerns over Riverside Theatre – and at a longer price, Champion Court.

I could see Junior plugging on for a place – but if he achieves that, it is most likely to be as the last of 3 finishers…

So what of our selections..?

Despite seeming an unlikely runner a week ago, everything appears to have fallen perfectly for The Giant Bolster today.

He will have no issues with the ground and on form, he should be within a length or two of Long Run at the finish.

On the down side, I’m not entirely convinced that AP is the right jockey for him. The horse has had jumping problems – and AP can be very brave ! That said, if he does get him into a rhythm up front, jumping and galloping, I think he will take some passing…

The potential fly in the ointment is Grands Crus. A year ago to the day, the took apart field in the Feltham Novice chase, wining in a time faster than that clocked by Kauto Star in the big one.

The form of that race also looks incredibly hot, with Silviano Conti and Bobswoth his 2 nearest pursuers.

He has disappointed in both of his subsequent races, but has recently undergone a breathing operation. If that has cured what ever was ailing him – and he bounces back to the form he showed last year, than he will win today.

Our third runner in the race, Captain Chris would have had a much better chance on decent ground. I’ll be a little surprised if he is now good enough to win – but I could still see him running a fair race at a very decent price…

As for a tricast on our 3 runners – well that would just be for the very brave (or foolish !) . I’ll be happy if any one of the 3 can manage to come home in front…

Ante-post: 0.5pt EW The Giant Bolster 25/1

Ante-post: 0.5pt win Cpatain Chris 14/1

0.5pt win Grands Crus 9/1

  

Earlier on the card, I expected to be tipping Valmari in the novice handicap chase…

She takes on a couple of decent animals in Rajdhani Express and Coole River, but I felt she might be able to surprise them.

However, with a best price of 13/2, victory for her will not be quite the ‘surprise’ that I was anticipating  !
I suspect she will drift near the off – and at close to double figures I would have been interested – but as I have to tip in my window, she couldn’t be tipped…

I would also expect Bathwick Brave to run a big race in the finale.

However, he is up 9lb for his defeat last time – and takes on a couple of horse who could be miles ahead of the handicapper…

I would expect him to run well and he should be placed – but at 9/1, there is not sufficient in the price to make him a tip…

The final tip of the day runs at Leopardstown, and avid readers will know, is a horse who has been on my radar since the start of the season…

2:20

I’ve been waiting for Rubert to be dropped to the minimum trip – and it happens today…

Well, it doesn’t quite happen today, he’s got an extra furlong to travel – but it is significant drop in trip from his most recent runs and hopefully that will be sufficient  for him…

In his most recent race at Navan, he was ridden with restrain, presumably in an attempt to help him get the 2m4f trip.

He made good progress down the back straight and was still in contention entering the home straight but then tired very quickly and was pulled up.

On his previous outing he had adopted his more customary front running tactics but didn’t manage to get home and tired into third place after jumping the last.

With Eddie O’Connell back on board today, I would expect him to be ridden forcefully and I think he might have a few of his rival in trouble entering the home straight.

Whether he will be good enough to hold on for victory today is a different matter. This is a much tougher race than I would have liked, but I think he is worth the risk at the price, with a saver on him being placed…

In terms of dangers, then Carlingford Loch is very well handicapped over fences compared to his hurdles rating. If he jumps round cleanly, the will take the beating.

The other one I’m really fearful of is Jacksonslady.

I think she could be a fair bit better than her current rating of 128. However, I have some concerns about her effectiveness in very soft ground.

On balance, I am prepared to go with Rubert – safe in the knowledge that he should run a big race, though ultimately might find one or two a little bit too good for him..

0.5pt win 0.25pt place Rubert 25/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead.

TVB.