3 domestic NH meetings today. At Hereford, Musselburgh and Carlisle – plus a fixture at Navan, in Ireland…
Very little grabbed my attention at either of the northern tracks.
At Musselburgh, I will be interested to see whether Civil Unrest can bounce back from his poor run on Monday – I suspect he will, but he is too short a price to consider backing…
The Carlisle card contains quite an interesting novice chase at 3:00 – but there have been 2 defections from the original field of 5, leaving just 3 going to post…
It should still be interesting to see whether Real Milan or Poole Master come out on top – but again, it is not a betting contest…
So that left me focusing on the cards at Hereford and Navan – and I’ve found a tip at each.
I suspect it will be quite an emotional day at Hereford, where they host their final meeting after 241 years.
That is quite some history – but life moves on, I guess…
Talking of which, some rationale for today’s tips - starting at Hereford:
2:40
I have to admit to having a slight dilemma with this particular race…
Many of you will recall that I was very sweet on Lady Kathleen, when she last ran at Ascot.
Although she didn’t run too badly that day, I still found her run a huge disappointment.
I was pretty convinced at the time, that she didn’t handling the testing ground – and for that reason, I can’t have her today on heavy.
I’ve certainly not lost faith in the mare – but ground is so important, that I simply have to let her go today.
In stead, I am tipping Queens Grove – who is another mare that I’ve been keeping a very close eye on for the past few weeks…
She won a handicap hurdle at Taunton a month ago – and the form of that race has worked out really well…
Romance Dance, who finished third that day, subsequently went on to occupy the same position in Lady Kathleen’s race at Ascot; whilst Fulgora finished fifth – and we all know what she did on her next outing…
On a strict line through Romance Dance, Queens Grove is going to have her work cut out trying to give a pound to Lady Kathleen today.
Strictly on the book, Lady Kathleen has 9 lengths to make up – but is 19lb better off.
That should be more than enough for her to turn the tables…
However, Queens Grove is an improving mare, who will have no problem with today’s conditions – whereas, as I said, I have big concerns about today’s going for Lady Kathleen…
The other thing worth bearing in mind with regard to Queens Grove, is that she is a half sister to Ashley Brook.
A few of you might remember him, as he was an ultra smart chaser/hurdler from a few years ago. He was an unlucky second in the Arkle as a novice chase (I backed him that day, which shouldn’t come as a big surprise !) and he consistently ran to a rating in 150s…
Obviously, just because she has a talented sibling, doesn’t mean that Queens Grove will ever scale great heights – but equally, I so think that it shows that she has still potentially got plenty of scope off today’s mark of 114.
0.5pt win Queens Grove 15/2
In the previous race on the Hereford card, I was half tempted by Reginaldinho…
I suspect that he is better than his current handicap mark – but I also suspect that 2m4f on heavy ground, will ultimately prove too much of a challenge for him…
I could see him travelling through the race, but I’ll be a little suspired if he manages to get his head in front where it matters.
Another I could see running a decent race without quite wining, is Ajzal.
He can be a bit of a tearaway – but he has a fair amount of ability.
First time out could be the time to catch him – and I can see him trading relatively low in-running. However, as with Reginaldinho, I’ll be a little surprised if he is able to win.
In terms of the winner, then Ballywatt looks the most solid contender – with Rouge et Blanc, the potential fly in the ointment.
Over at Navan, the second tip of the day, runs in the grade 2 Tara hurdle…
12:55
If you could take Whatuthinks last time out victory over Voler La Vedette at face value, he would be odds on favourite for this race…
However, common consensus is that he stole that race under an enterprising ride from the front by Tom Doyle and that the form flatters him.
Whilst I wouldn’t totally disagree with that view of events, I think it would be wrong to think that Whatuthink completely fluked the win.
For a start, he didn’t race miles clear of the entire field; his nearest pursuers were within a few lengths of him through out contest.
Ofcourse, by the time the race ended, he was along way clear of them – but that is because Whatuthink handled the conditions so well.
And over the same course today, in similar conditions – and with no obvious competition for the lead, who is to say that he won’t repeat the dose..?
Whatuthink has shown himself capable of very decent form numerous times in the past and although he is now 10, there is no obvious sign that the years are starting to catch up with him.
During the summer, he was a dual winner: once over hurdles and once on the flat.
In both contests, he made all – and found for pressure in the closing stages – to beat relatively small fields.
I could easily see the same scenario unfolding today…
Simenon and Un Beau Matin are the most interesting of his opponents.
However Simenon is in danger of becoming very disappointing, having looked as though he may be destined for the very top, when success twice at this years Royal Ascot meeting.
Whilst Un Beau Matin clearly has potential, he also has a lot to prove…
On balance then, with conditions looking sure to suit – Whatuthink looks worth a small play at a fair price.
0.5pt win Whatuthink 6/1
In the following race at Navan, I was half tempted by For a Finish…
I tipped him in the Cork National on his penultimate outing. He ran an odd race that day, settled out the back and then making rapid progress before being pulled up in the home straight.
He followed that up with a comfortable win over hurdles at Fairyhouse, off a much lower mark.
He is back lover fences today, but over a more suitable trip.
With Barry Geraghty on board, I think he will take the beating – but at 6/1 and with 15 rivals to beat, there is little margin in his price…
I would expect Rubert to put up a good show in the race – but as I’ve said previously, I think 2m4f stretches his stamina.
He will be of more interest over the minimum trip…
Boston Bob makes his eagerly awaited chasing debut in the opening event on the card. If he jumps round OK, he will win..
I wouldn’t be quite so confident about Don Cossack in the novice hurdle at 1:25 however…
Whilst he was very impressive on his hurdling debut, he beat nothing of note and a price of 1/2 against much sterner opposition, is surely an over-reaction.
He may well win – but I would much rather take a flyer on Busty Brown or Seafood at much bigger prices…
Here’s hoping for a good day.
TVB.
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