Daily write-up - Dec 4th

Just a couple of really low grade meetings today, at Folkestone and Towcester…

The Towcester meeting was originally scheduled for Southwell – but as the Nottinghamshire track is currently under water, a new venue had to be found…

The Folkestone meeting is likely to be the penultimate jump fixture ever to be held at that course – as it is due to be closed at the end of the year…

As is often the case on days like today, finding bets/tips is a little tricky…

Some of the races are, frankly quite, dire – and far too risky to bet or tip in (low grade/unsound horses, chasing pitiful amounts of prize money is never going to a betting medium, unless you are ‘in the know’).

That said, I still like to cast an eye over the cards and see if I can spot anything interesting…

I did that early yesterday afternoon – and spotted an ‘interesting’ horse in the opener at Folkestone.

Roll on a few hours and the first bookmakers priced up the race – and low and behold, the interesting horse is the outsider of the field.

The problem I have at that point, is that I know the horse is likely to be backed at the price on offer.

Sure, it has risks attached to it – but as I said above, these are low grade races, pretty much every runner has risks attached.

Whilst I am prepared to take that risk if there is reward in the price – I’m not prepared to take it, if the price is tight…

I therefore either need to act at that moment in time – or accept it will never be a tip of any kind…

Having given it some thought over the past few days, I think the scenario described above, is perfect for early-bird tips – and consequently that is how I dealt with Nafaath last night.

Now I know that not all of you appreciate early-bird tips – and that is fine.

They are not going to be for everyone.

Firstly, not everyone will be around to take advantage when I issue (the time of issue is driven completely by the bookmakers); Secondly, even if you are around, you may not be able to get on the horse (the bookmakers will only be prepared to take pretty small bets at 5:00 the evening before); and thirdly even if you are around and could get on, you might not want to, for fear of the bookmaker ‘marking’ your account (with a view to subsequent restriction/closure).

So like I say, early-bird tips will not be for everyone !

However, they will be for a few of you…

The guys who play to small stakes; are around at that time of the day – and have no issue with account restrictions ( at the moment anyway).

The buzz you get from watching your horse half in price definitely adds to the excitement of it all…

So, like I say: early-bird tips will be for some – but not all.

I’ll continue to use the same distribution list for them, that I use for all my other communication.

However, if some of your really would prefer not to receive them (as they may be an unwanted distraction – or even an irritation), let me know.

It will take me 5 mins to set up another distribution list for use only for early bird tips.

You can then forget all about them (until you see them mentioned in the daily write-up ;) ).

Anyway, enough on the theory of early birds – and a bit on the actual early-bird tip for today …

Folkestone 12:30

This is quite a low grade affair and Nafaath just scrapes into it, with his current rating of 115.

Just 2 runs ago, his rating was 125 – and he actually hit a career high of 140.

Generally, in situations like this, the rating has plummeted because the horse is in serial decline – and that may be the case with Nafaath – but then again, it may not…

Certainly he didn’t look to be in decline at Royal Ascot this summer, when he finished a hugely creditable third in the Ascot stakes, behind Simenon.

At the time, Simenon was being touted as a potential champion hurdle horse – so to finish within 8 lengths of him, receiving just 8lbs was a very creditable performance indeed …

Unfortunately it has all been downhill since then for Nafaath: 3 disappointing runs on the flat – and 2 over hurdles…

However, as I said, this has resulted in his handicap mark dropping like a stone –and today he is contesting the easiest race he has run in for some time.

Additionally, and this is where it gets really interesting, Nafaath is fitted with a tongue tie for the first time today.

Now connections could just be clutching at straws here – he was tried in blinkers last time – but if his breathing is the issue (and that would be consistent with his rapid loss of form) then there is every chance the application of the tongue tie might sort that out. And if that is the case, he should bolt up !

Whatever, he looked worth a risk at the 14/1 available last night – whether he is worth a risk at the 8 or 9/1 available this morning, is a little more debatable…

Early bird: 1pt win Nafaath 14/1

Over at Towcester, I was half targeting the second race on the card…

The horse that I had my eye on, was L’Eldorado. He has been competing in better class handicaps than this – and running with some credit.

However, he has to carry 11st12lb today, in soft ground at Towcester and I have some concerns about him be able to see out his race up that final hill…

Additionally, he faces a number of potentially interesting rivals. Non of them have the solid profile that he does – but 2 or 3 certainly look capable of improvement (the subtle signs are keen on Arctic Watch – but the form book doesn’t back them up !).

If the odds had been there, I might have taken the risk with L’Eldorado – but he was best priced 9/2 last night – and is  4/1 this morning – and I just don’t; see sufficient margin in those odds to compensate for the risks…

Whilst in the bumper that closes the card, I can’t believe that David Pipe has brought High Ville all the way up from Somerset with the intention of going home without the prize..

You are not going to get rich at 11/8 – but I would expect you to collect…

Finally, a quick ‘thank you’ to all of you who have already completed and returned your satisfaction surveys.

It’s is gratifying to read that so many of you value my efforts – and I have also received one or two nice ideas for tweaks to the service, which I will being aiming to incorporate.

I look forward to reading the views of those of you who are still composing your responses ;)

TVB.