Daily write-up - Nov 10th

There are 3 very decent domestics NH cards this afternoon, at Wincanton, Sandown and Kelso, respectively - plus a very interesting card at Naas in Ireland…

Wincanton hosts the highest profile NH meeting of the day, but it is not a course that I’m particularly fond of.

I don’t mean that in a geographical sense – I’ve never actually been there and it looks fine as a venue - however, the dominance of Paul Nicholls at the track, tends to put me off betting there (I don’t tend to back his horses, as they are invariably overbet).

That said, you can’t knock his record, so I find that generally I’m better off just leaving races there alone.

Sandown, on the other hand, is a course I like very much – and it is thus no surprise that my best bet of the day runs there.

One of our numbers is going racing there this afternoon (hope you have a good afternoon Jim !) – and he asked me earlier this week if I would be able to mark his card for today.

I was happy to do that, as it put me a little ahead of the game – and it gave me an early sighting of a horse I’ve been waiting to back…

2:25

Cootehill ran much better than it appears, last time out in a very valuable race at Fakenahm.

He was unfancied that day, on the back of a disappointing seasonal debut at Chepstow. However when he moved through to challenge at the third last at the Norfolk venue, he looked certain to place – at very least.

However, Cootehill is more of a 2m4f horse than a 3m horse – and his stamina gave way over the final few furlongs of the race.

As a consequence, he only managed a fifth placing – but that has seen the handicapper drop him 2lb for today’s run.

As recently as April, Cootehill define a mark just 2lb lower than today. When successful at Ludlow (also a right handed track –and also on soft ground). He followed up that performance with a creditable third to Ostland off a mark of 138.

Off 133 today, he is well handicapped – and with distance, ground and track to suit, I really struggle to see him not running a very big race today.

Cootehill would be a very strong fancy but for the presence of some potential progressive rivals.

Top Smart, Niceonefrankie and  Amaury De Lusignan all have the potential to be a fair bit better than their current mark. However non have them have run this season and consequently they may all improve for the outing.

Peachy Moment is interesting in that Nicky Richards sends him all the way down from his Penrith base; whilst Rob Conti has also looked a horse on the upgrade.

All this said, I think that Cootehill sets a fairly high standard for them to aim at and whilst I guess one of them might prove his superior on the day (hence the staking of the bet – we get our money back if he finishes second) I will be very disappointed if Cootehill isn’t there or thereabout at the finishing line.

1pt win 0.5pt place Cootehill 9/1

3:00

In the following race on the card, Lemon Drop Red is the one that catches my eye…

He ran very well in the Fred Winter hurdle at the Cheltenham festival, last March and again on his seasonal debut at Chepstow a fortnight ago.

He very much looked likely to be involved in the finish on the latter occasion, but just didn’t finish off his race.

Hopefully that was because the run was needed and if that is the case, he will go very close today off a mark 4lb lower (7lb lower than his run at Cheltenham).

The other one that catches my eye in the race, is Valid Reason, who has been in decent form on the flat.

Hopefully Lemon Drop Kid will have his measure !!

0.5pt win Lemon Drop Kid 9/1

I was hoping to be able to tip in the penultimate race on the Sandown card – but the prices just aren’t there on the 2 horses I’m interested in…

They are Time for Spring and Graduation Night, who finished fourth and fifth respectively behind Hunters Lodge at the October Cheltenham meeting.

Of the 2, I would have a slight (and I mean slight !) preference for Time for Spring –but in a competitive race, I was hoping for at least 7/1 about either one.

A best price of 5/1 (so 2/1 the pair) mean that I must reluctantly pass on the race…

Back at Wincanton, despite my aversion to the course, I decided to have a small play in the big race…

3:25

There may be a 13 runner field, I’ll be a little surprised if the winner of this contest doesn’t come from the top 5 in the betting…

Looking at it last night, I had narrowed the race down to 2: The Package and Diamond Harry.

Put simply, if Diamond Harry is back to his best, he will hack up in this !

He cantered home in the Hennessey a coupe of years back off a 6lb higher mark than he runs off today.

As a result of that victory, his official mark went up to 166 – he gets to run off 150 today.

First time out is also the best time to catch him – so why aren’t I all over him ?

Because simply, if he was back to his best, he would have been put in around 5/2 this morning – and people would still be rushing to take that price. A price of 8/1 is too big – way too big – and I have to be suspicious of it…

I guess I might end up looking silly (and I might have a little saver on him just in case !) but if the people close to him knew he was back to his best, that price simply wouldn’t be there…

The other horse I was particularly interest in the race – and the one that I ultimately made the selection for the race – is The Package..

He is a fragile sort who doesn’t tend to see the racecourse very often. However when he does turn up, he invariably runs a big race.
That was the case on his only outing of last season, when he finished fourth at the Cheltenham festival.

He gets to run off the same mark today – and apparently this has always been his target.

There is the chance that the likes of Micahel Le Bon and Golden Chieftain will improve past him, but he sets a very fair standard and is worth a small play at the prices

0.5pt win The Package 7/1

Earlier, on a card which looks far more suitable for viewing than for punting, I thought that King of the Night could be of interest at a price in the novice chase. Whilst it will be fascinating to see if Zarkandar can give away the weight in the Elite hurdle (though I wouldn’t be betting on it !!)

Kelso also hosts a decent card today – and I’m a little disappointed that I haven’t got a tip (or two !) for you there.

However, as was the case in the chase at Sandown, the horses I am interested in, have been priced up a tad lower than I would have liked, so I am reluctantly giving them a miss…

In the chase at 2:05 , I was torn between Blenheim Brook and Knockara Beau.

They were both put in at 5/1 yesterday evening and I would have been interested in either at that price. However, there has been a significant NR this morning and they are now 3/1 and 7/2 respectively (best prices).

That gives little more than even money coupled – and whilst I would expect one of them to win, I don’t want to play at that kind of price…

In the following race, I think that top weight Stagecoach Pearl, will take all the beating.

At 5/2, I would have had a couple of points on him – but at 15/8, I have to pass…

Win, lose or draw, price is all important when you are betting. If you consistently take below the odds, you will lose.

It is frustrating to find horses and then have to leave them alone – but that is the right thing to do.

Ultimately, it is only one race in a long season – there will be many other days…

Finally, over at Naas.

A little like Wincanton, it strikes me as a meeting to watch rather than bet in.

However, if I was forced to make one wager on the day: flushed with the success of my 12/1 bumper winner at Fontwell yesterday (I hope some of your were on ;) ), I would plump for Gabriel Brandy in the finale.

He is trained by John Kiely – who knows how to train bumper horses – and ridden by Robbie McNamara – who knows how ride bumper horses.

Taking on a couple of animals from the Meade and Mullins tables, he is likely to be a price (currently 10/1) and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him go very close…

Here’s to a good day !

TVB.