Daily write-up - Nov 17th

Best laid plans, hey….

Last night I had 2 really strong selections for today – both at very big prices.

However, both horses need decent ground to perform at their best, so what happens overnight…? 6mm of rain at Cheltenham…

Knowing the precise impact of the rain, is very difficult – but one thing is for sure, it won’t have made the ground ride quicker !

Anyway, I’ve ended up going for a compromise solution: I’ve reduced stakes on both horses (particularly the one which I’m sure it would prefer quick ground – that is now effectively just a saver). I’ve also brought in a new selection that should appreciate cut – and dropped one that would prefer it quick.

Oh the joys of tipping (and betting !)

Anyway, on to business…

Day 2 of the Open meeting and there is another top class days action in store…

Elsewhere, there is NH action at Wetherby and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Punchestown over in Ireland.

Away from Cheltenham, the racing lacks the quality usually associated with a Saturday. Despite that, there are 2 or 3 very interesting races, which I would like to try and solve – if only I had the time !

However, being a mere mortal – and restricted to just the 24 hours in a day – I don’t ! So you will just have to settle for my preview of Cheltenham day 2 !! (plus a few tips !)

12:45

Probably the best 3 year old hurdle to take place so far this season – but not really a betting medium…

The market suggests that the race is likely to be between Far West and Vasco Du Ronceray – and I wouldn’t particularly want to argue with it…

For what it’s worth, I would have a preference for the latter – but it’s not something would feel that strongly about.

Outside the top 2 in the market, Roc D’Apsis looks the most interesting to me. He is making his UK – and hurdling debut – but was unbeaten in his 2 flat runs in the French provinces.

He gets 4lbs from the market leaders – but whether that will be sufficient to offset his inexperience, only time will tell…

Dovils Date is the other one worth a mention. He was impressive on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh and is a bigger price than I would have expected.

However, you will struggle to find 2 more different tracks than Cheltenham and Musselburgh and whether he will be as effective at the home of jump racing, remains to be seen…

1:20

I am keen to take on the market leaders in this contest – the question is, with what…?

In truth, I only see 3 viable options: Our Father, Masters Hill and Sraid Padraig.

Of the 3, I would have a preference for Our Father – despite this being his fencing debut.

However odds of 3/1 are pretty skinny – and insufficient to tempt me.

Sraid Padraig won well on his chasing debut Limerick – but the race did fall apart a bit.

Of course, he could do no more than win impressively (which he did) but today will be a much sterner test for him.

By contrast, Masters Hill has already faced decent opposition – and he got the better of them in taking fashion at Chepstow.

He wasn’t particularly well fancied that day either, so it is reasonable to think he might come on for the run.

He can’t be a confident t selection  - but I do think he is worth a small wager at the prices available on ground that should suit him well

0.5pt win Masters Hill 7/1

1:55

Despite this looking a very competitive race. There was only one horse I was ever interested in… King Fontaine.

I really fancied him –and he was a tremendous price – but then the rains came and I feel I have little option other than to significantly back off him…

The harsh reality is that I know he would prefer decent ground – and the ground at Cheltenham today is likely to ride on the soft side.

He might get away with it –and I’m having a saver on him just in case – but hand on heart, I doubt he will…

It is such a shame as well – because, believe me, this horse is handicapped to win today – and win well !

He also goes very well when fresh –and will have no issue with either course or distance.
Prior to the rain, my big concern was his jumping – but if he had jumped round, I simply couldn’t see how he wouldn’t have gone close – and at 25/1 .

This was Monastrell all over again !

Anyway, no point dwelling on what might have been. The rain has come – and we have a different race as a consequence.

In the likely slog, Bradley now strikes me as the most probable winner – though I could also see Viking Blond running a big race.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fredo run well – and the even rank outsider Mostly Bob would now also have a bit of a squeak (Ciaran will be pleased !).

A race I’ve kind of lost my appetite for…

0.5pt win King Fontaine 25/1

2:35

I didn’t plan to tip in the Paddy Power before the rain came – so we’ve not lost out on this particular heat…

The reason I wasn’t planning to tip in the race, is because I think – and hope – that the favourite will dot up…

As readers from last season will know, I’m a huge fan of Grands Crus. Last season, I thought he might have been the second coming and whilst he ultimately finished the season disappointingly, I’m not prepared to write him off on the back of one poor run.

I would prefer to think that he simply didn’t run his race that day – whatever the reason – and I fully expect to see him bounce back to form and dominate today.

If he doesn’t bounce back, then I suspect that a fancied horse will still win the race –and that is the other reason why I don’t really see it as a betting medium.

Walkon, Hunt Ball and Al Ferof, could all be seriously good horses – and it takes some imagination to see all of them under-performing…

Of the others, then I could have been interested in Forpadydeplasterer – on decent ground (!); whilst I could also see Michael Flips running a big race – but I can’t honestly see him winning….

Very much a race to savour –and one to cheer home the favourite !!

3:05

This looks a very tricky race – but one where I was going to have a small play – until the rain intervened…

The horse I was going to side with, was Benbane Head, who did us a favour when wining at Towcester just over a week ago.

He won that day, despite finding the trip on the short side –and the hurdles a bit of an inconvenience ! He’ll still have the hurdles to deal with today (better than fences mind !) – but the extra 3 furlongs should help him enormously…

However, he is another horse who prefers quick ground and he won’t get it today…

In truth, he was a bit of a borderline call anyway (I just thought he was over-priced) so I have far less of an issue letting him go.

I now suspect that the race will be won by one of the market leaders though I don’t really know which one !

Lovcen is the class horse in the race and will strip fitter for his debut run - but he has a big weight to carry in what is likely to be testing conditions…

The 2 that really catch my eye are Goulanes and Abnaki – both of whom have very workable weights to carry…

I would slightly prefer the former – even though he has only had one outing over hurdles.
David Pipe clearly thinks a lot of him (he was due to make his hurdling debut at last seasons Cheltenham festival –which is very unusual). If the money comes for him, I think he will take the beating…

3:40

Another absolute minefield of a race – but one where I thought I had found a gem…

I’m getting tired of saying it (and I suspect you must be getting tired of reading  it) but Able Deputy would have been a really strong bet –on decent ground !

He was a massive eye-catcher last time he ran – over this very course and distance last January.

Despite being an 80/1 shot that day - and in a very hot handicap indeed, he looked likely to play a big part in the finish until tiring up the hill…

With another year on his back –and on his preferred quick surface I was of the opinion that he would be more likely to get up the hill today – particularly against today’s likely weaker opposition.

However, it is his seasonal debut and the rain will make it more of a test, so now I’m not as confident…

I’m still staking a point on him – because, as an unexposed horse, he is still a very big price. However, this just gives you an indication of my intended staking in the right conditions !!

It is easy to make a case for plenty of others in the race – but all of them look to be  priced according to their likely chances…

Let’s just hope that Able Deputy manages to cope with the rain soften ground and runs the race I expected him to, yesterday evening…

0.5pt EW Able Deputy 33/1

Here’s hoping for a great day (ideally accompanied by a warming breeze !)

TVB.