Review of the day

In a parallel universe, many light years away, TVB had a really good day…

TheValueBettor operating in that particular galaxy, had 2 tough judgement calls to make this morning – but he got them spot on and his P&L continued to march relentlessly upwards…

Back in our own galaxy – and on our own planet – our version of TheValueBettor didn’t do quite so well…

It is a little bit irritating when you spend hours studying the form and hours writing up your thoughts and findings, only to get the crucial judgement calls wrong.

But that is what happened last night and this morning – and if I’m honest, I’ve no doubt it will happen many more time between now and the end of March...

So, with the benefit of hindsight, is there anything I should have done differently ?

I honestly think I was right to leave Buck Mulligan alone at the price this morning...

OK, he won – but he only just won and I wouldn’t even feel totally confident he would uphold the form if the race was re-run tomorrow (I’m not saying he wouldn’t just that he would still be no certainty !).

More and more nowadays, fancied horses seem to get backed into what I would consider silly prices.

Obviously it doesn’t stop them from wining – but when you are looking for ‘value’ they become very difficult to back/tip.

I can think of numerous examples, since the start of the month, of horses that I expected to be significantly longer odds than they were returned. The trouble is, a fair percentage of them won !
Clearly the market is a lot smarter than it used to be – so I guess I need to accept that fact sooner rather than later…

The situation with Honest John was slightly different…

He was a risky selection – and I simply didn’t feel that 7/1 was sufficient recompense for the risk involved.

If I had known that he was going to go off at 5/2 joint favourite, then I would have been all over him this morning – but, in truth, he was just as likely to go off at 16/1 and be pulled up at half way.

The trouble with tipping first thing in the morning, is that you have no idea of what the market is going to do – and in certain types of races, with certain types of horses, the market information is absolutely crucial….

Honest John being backed into favouritism, suggested that connections knew he was right today – and if that was the case he was always going to be difficult to beat.

At the end of the day, I got 2 calls wrong and cost us a few points (both horses would only have been 0.5pt win bets).

That said, there were valid reason for me taking the decision I did –and it is always a lot easier to judge these things with the benefit of hindsight…

Hopefully one or two of you were smart enough to get on the 2 animals concerned (I know at least one of you was  - and even smart enough to combine them in a double ! – well done Ciaran !).

I’m irritated by the results – and I maybe need to adjust my thinking slightly – but at the end of the day, these things happen…

Elsewhere on the day: the 3 mentions at Sedgefield all ran disappointing races, with non of them even managing to place.

Over at Huntington, Soft Song couldn’t get the better of favourite, Valdez – but Elenika, under a powerful Ruby ride, managed to just about see off the persistent challenge of Rajdhani Express.

At Lingfield, Ridgeway Poppy drifted like the proverbial barge in the first – and was pulled up before half way…

I’m not normally one to comment on these kind of things – but this particular one, did look mighty suspicious.

The horse was 4/1 in the morning (and backed) – and yet was 20+ on Betfair at the off, with someone literally trying to give it away.

The way it subsequently ran did leave a bit of a sour taste…

Nozic was equally weak in the handicap chase (out to 50 on Betfair) but he ran a really good race to take fourth. If he can build on this, then he looks a horse to follow in the forthcoming weeks.
Finally, despite only having 3 rivals to beat, Pocket Aces still couldn’t manage to get his head in front.

He seemed to run OK – but I would need to see further evidence in a bigger field before I was prepared to support him again…

TVB.