With the abandonment of both Towcester and Exeter, we are only left with racing at Navan, in southern Ireland, today…
The track hosts its feature race of the season, the Troytown chase, which has, as always, attracted a fiercely competitive field.
The going at the County Meath track, is likely to ride somewhere between heavy and untraceable – so an ability to handle bottomless conditions will be an absolute must.
I also think that lighter weights will be favoured in the big race (but then again, I thought that yesterday at Haydock !), so I have focused my attention on the bottom half of the handicap.
Working through the race, I came up with a short list of 4: Jadanli, Romanesco, The Hard Hat and Zardsky.
Cleary, 4 is a bit too many to tip in one race, so I had to trim it down. Unlike yesterday, I hope I’ve made the right calls today…
2:25
The first horse to catch my eye, was Jadanli – and If I’m honest, my original intention was to make him my sole selection in the race – EW.
However, whilst I’m not prepared to drop him completely, I have to acknowledge that he is getting on a bit in years and might not now be the horse he once was. Consequently it seemed prudent to have a second bite of the cherry…
Anyway, on to the case for Jadanli.
I still vividly recall him wining the Grade 1 Power Gold cup at the Fairyhouse Easter festival, back in 2010. The thing about that race, was that it was run is desperate conditions – and whilst Jadanli clearly wasn’t the best horse in the race, he relished the conditions and won by a country mile.
In truth, he has never hit those heights since, however, he did run a most encouraging race in the Thystes chase at Gowran last January. That race was also run on very heavy ground – and seemed to re-enforce the belief that Jadalnli is a much better horse in very deep conditions.
Jadanli has only run once since that race, when making his seasonal debut at Limerick earlier this month. With that run under his belt, and with conditions he will relish more than almost every runner in the field, I feel he had to be worth a play.
The second horse I’ve chosen to get onside is Zardsky,
Despite only being 6, he already had a fair amount of experience in the pointing field, prior to making the switch to racing under rules, earlier this year…
I think it is fair to assume that he is still progressive - there has certainly been improvement in each of his recent runs.
Last time out, he finished a creditable fourth in the Cork Grand National, leading until the home turn and then weakening up the stright.
Today’s contest is over half a mile further, which should suit Zardsky much better.
As with Jadanli, I see him as a horse with a chance that is a fair bit better than the betting suggests.
A quick mention for the 2 that I let through the net:
Romanesco has been a revelation this season: he should really be coming here on the back of a 3 timer – but he took an unlucky fall at the last, at Cheltenham, on his penultimate outing.
He made up for that by taking a competitive race at Fakenham and is only 6lb higher today. He should handle the ground – and has Ruby on top – he looks a worthy favourite to me…
The other one I was interested in was The Hard Hat.
He was a progressive stayer last season and I think he will be well suited to toady’s test. However, he was a fair way behind Zardsky on his seasonal debut at Galway – and there is no obvious reason why he should turn the tables today…
0.5pt win Jadanli 25/1
0.5pt win Zardsky 16/1
In the opener on the card, I can’t believe that Kashline can be backed at 20/1…
Clearly, I could never tip a horse like him as there is too much guesswork involved – but if I could, I would be very tempted (though maybe EW !).
The race doesn’t look overly strong and he has very decent PTP form. I also think it very significant that he made his debut under rules in a hot bumper at the Punchestown festival.
He finished well beaten that day, but was sent of 5/1 third favourite - suggesting that connections thought him capable of going close…
Just short of 3 miles, in heavy ground today, looks a far mote suitable test – and I really think he is a very good bet at the price (but not a tip !).
In the following novice hurdle, I think Wingtips will go very close – but there isn’t a great deal of margin in a price of 4/1.
One with more margin in the price, is Thynetocatcher. She will be suited by the trip; should handle the ground – and gets a very useful mares allowance. 25/1 about her chances, is too big…
It will be interesting to see whether Don Cossack can justify his sky-high reputation in the maiden hurdle at 1:25.
I would expect his to do so but he is not a betting proposition at 1/3 – particularly with a few interesting sorts in against him…
Finally, I expected to see Alderwood priced up as favourite for the novice chase at 2:55…
He progressed into a top class novice hurdler last season and – provided he is ready to do himself justice first time out – I would expect him to be a bit too quick for his rivals, over today’s trip…
Here’s hoping for a good day !
TVB.
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