Daily write-up - Nov 8th

Domestic NH action today from Musselburgh and Towcester, with a meeting at Thurles in Southern Ireland…

Some days, I look at the overnight declarations, and potential bets just jump out at me…

Other days, I look at the overnight declaration and I see nothing !!

You may find this hard to believe, but yesterday lunchtime, when I started looking at the overnight declarations for today, I saw nothing. However, if I look hard enough, I can invariably find something !!

In the middle of yesterday evening, I was quite sure that today would be my first ‘no bet’ day. But then I found a few potentially interesting mentions – and a couple of those turned into borderline tips – and before I knew it, I’d got the busiest day of the service so far !

One point I should make is that non of today’s selections are rock solid. I think all 4 have a decent chance – and I will be a little disappointed if at least 1 of them doesn’t oblige – but there are no certainties in there.

However, that is why I have a staking system. 0.5pt win on all 4, means a total stake for the day of 2pts. That is the same amount as I had on Loch Ba – and that feels about right.

So, onto today’s tips, starting at Towcester…

Benbane Head is a very talented animal, who seems to have lost his way over fences…

Last time out, he unseated his rider and connections have clearly decided that it is time to restore his confidence, with a run over hurdles.

His current chase mark is 125 – but he ran creditably at the Cheltenham festival, just 6 months ago, off a mark of 136.

Today, he gets to run off a mark of 119 – which shows how potentially well handicapped he is.

This is backed-up by the fact that Benbane Head had plenty of fair form over hurdles, from marks in the 120s, a couple of season ago….

Decent ground is key to Benbane Head, but I think that today’s good to soft ground at Towcester should be fine for him.

I also think it quite noteworthy that Benbane Head is the only ride of the day for Robert Thornton. This suggests to me that connections aren’t just trying to restore the horses’ confidence –they are going to the win.

Of his opponents, Destroyer Deployed is potentially very interesting – even with top weight.

As a former runner up in the Cheltenham Bumper, a mark of 120 looks very lenient. This is because Destroyer Deployed under performed during his first season over obstacles.

He could well leave that mark behind this season as he gains experience. However, first time out and with top weight, I think he is more likely to perform with credit that he is to win.

0.5pt win Benbane Head 9/1

I’m taking a bit of a flyer on Middlebrook, as he is not the kind of horse I would normally tip (he has an official mark of just 82 !).

However, for those of you who like my theories (!) he is undoubtedly the most interesting selection of the day…

As a 16 race maiden, some of you might think I am losing the plot by tipping Middlebrook (and I guess, time might prove you right !) but I think there is a bit more to him than meets the eye…

He has actually got some decent form in the book – most notably perhaps, a second place behind Opera Og at Towcester on his chasing debut, last season…

Although beaten a fair way that day, Middlebrook was unlucky to bump into quite a decent performer in Opera Og and he gets to run off a pound lower mark today.

His 4 subsequent runs over fences have yielded 2 falls – and that has to be a concern today – but also a very fair third of 15 at Southwell..

Middlebrooks last 3 runs have been over hurdles, but he has hardly set the world alight over the smaller obstacles…

What interests me about Middlebrook though, is that his best performance last season was at Towcester, which really is a specialist course.

In his run behind Opera Og, he was staying on stoutly at the finish – and he steps up half a mile in trip for today’s contest.

There are also a few subtle signs that point to today being the day when connections are going for it with Middlebrook. Firstly, he is the only horse that Peter Niven sends on the 160+ mile trip from North Yorkshire; the only ride of the day for Andrew Thorton and today is the day that connections have choosen to deploy a hood for the first time.

Those subtle signs, coupled with decent course form and a return to chasing, make him look an interesting bet to me, at 8/1 in a 7 horse race…

0.5pt win Middlebrook 8/1 

Finally at Towcester, a quick mention for the novice chase that opens up the card…

For me, this is just about the race of the day (I do love my novice chases !) and whilst I think Highland Lodge should be good enough to win, he is facing some very strong rivals. Certainly a race to watch and savour…

Over to Musselburgh then…

If I’m honest, I missed a trick with The Big Freeze last night.

B365 opened up with him as an 8/1 shot – and he really should have been an early bird tip at that price.

However, there is no pointing dwelling on what I should have done – the question this morning was whether he represented any value at 5/1 – and I think the answer is just about ‘yes’…

To be honest, there is nothing particularly clever about selecting The Big Freeze in this race.

He is a progressive chaser, who is gradually getting his act together over fences. He ran quite well at Huntingdon last time out and yet has been dropped 2 lbs in the handicap following that run.

Richard Johnson and Tim Vaughan team up for 2 runners on the card. They will both have travelled almost 400 miles to get to the east coast of Scotland from their stables in South Wales.
I very much doubt they will be making that journey with the intention of going home empty handed (their other runner is Dovils Date in the juvenile hurdle).

There are dangers, particularly in the form of the potentially revitalised Or De Grugy.

However, if Richard Johnson can get The Big Freeze into a rhythm up front, jumping and travelling, I think he will take some catching round the sharp Musselburgh track…

0.5pt win The Big Freeze 5/1

Finally, over to Thurles…

I simply can’t resist a small play on Spring Heeled in the opening novice chase…

He was a horse I followed closely last season, from his very first outing, when he pulled off a surprise victory over the subsequently high class Jenari (who also looks like he could make a very decent novice chaser, this season).

Spring Heeled only managed to register one further victory last campaign, but 2 of his 4 subsequent races were at graded level and he probably wasn’t quite up to that at the time…

In truth though, he always looked the type to make a better chasers than he was hurdler. He is a bright chestnut, with plenty of scope and it will certainly be disappointing if he doesn’t take fairly high rank amongst the Irish novice chasers by the end of the campaign.

The main doubt in my mind is whether today’s 2 mile trip will provide him with sufficient test of stamina. However it was 2 miles that he beat Jenarai over first time up last season and he is a pretty keen going sort, so I don’t think he’ll want for pace.

There are obviously quite a few dangers – but most of them would also prefer a greater test of stamina – so provided his jumping cuts the mustard, I am hopeful of a very big show.

0.5pt win Spring Heeled 13/2

Here’s to an interesting – and profitable – day !!

TVB.