It’s back to the mundane today, after the quality fayre of yesterday…
2 domestic meetings at Carlisle and Huntingdon – plus it’s Cork National day, over in Ireland…
I was half tempted by a couple at Carlisle:
In the conditional chase at 2:40, I reckon that last years winner, Mr Moonshine, could take some pegging back.
He won the race without a penalty, last year – but that victory sees him penalised for this years contest ! However, even with that riposte – which means that he is the joint worse in on official handicap ratings - I think he is the one to beat.
He had a very nice pipe opener over hurdles at Wetherby recently and if he gets an uncontested lead today (which is highly likely), he will not be easy to pass.
The biggest danger by far, is Rival D’Estruval, who is best in at the weights and was an impressive winner last time out. However, he has been priced up at 11/8; whereas Mr Moonshine was a 9/2 shot last night (4/1 this morning).
Like I say, I was tempted – but I decided against. Let’s hope I don’t rue that decision !!
Half an hour later, Valley View looks quite interesting in the long distance chase. He was very progressive last season and it strikes me as significant that AP McCoy – complete with nasty facial injury – travels all the way up to Carlisle, for just one ride.
On the flip side however, Valley View is not guaranteed to get the trip; is making his seasonal debut; has a number of potentially progressive rivals to overcome – and has been put in at 4/1.
He was easier to pass on, than Mr Moonshine !!
There are also a couple of interesting races - or at least interesting horses – at Huntingdon…
In the novice chase at 1:15, Attaglance should really take all the beating – provided he can show that his debut outing over fences – where he showed little and was eventually pulled up – was just a blip.
Last season, he was a winner over hurdles at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, ending the campaign with a mark of 155. That is nearly 20lb above the mark Hildisvini has over hurdles - and yet that one has to give him 7lb today.
Clearly there is big difference between jumping hurdles and jumping fences – but all the same.
A best price of 5/1 would be an absolute steal, if you knew he was going to jump round and show his hurdles form. He is still quite tempting, even with that risk…
In the handicap chase at 2:20, Benny the Swinger has some appeal off bottom weight.
He showed very little for Henrietta Knight last season, but if the switch to the stable of Chris Gordon has worked the oracle, he will take the world of beating off a mark of 68.
However, I would be a little happier if he was running over further (particularly at a quick track like Huntingdon) and there is little margin in a quote of 5/1.
All in all, I will be disappointed if at least 1 of the above 4 doesn’t oblige today - and backing them all at best prices would see you make a slight profit… Obviously, if more than 1 of them wins…!!
On balance though, I’ve decided to let them all go and focus instead on the Cork National.
Clearly this is a much trickier race to fathom (!) – but I’m hoping that I’ve picked up on a couple of form lines that will prove key to the race.
The first is last seasons contest. That was ultimately won quite comfortably by the Bishop Looney. He had been carefully prepared for the race last season – and it looks to me as if connections have done the same this season. My 2 concerns with him are that he is 6lb higher in the handicap today (that won’t make things impossible for him – but it won’t help either); and his regular partner, Tom Doyle is not on board (he may well have contractual commitments to the stable of Jim Culloty). For those reasons, I am making him a saver, rather than the main bet…
That honour goes to For a Finish. He finished 17 lengths behind The Bishop Looney in last years race, but gets an 11lb pull in the weight s today.
For a Finish has only run twice since that race, but the second of those outings, looks to be the other key race, when assessing this years contest.
That was this years Munster National, which was won by Raz De Maree. Raz De Maree won that race well, but gets a 9lb hike in the ratings as a result, which will make like much tougher for him today.
For a Finish was fifth in that race, but turning for home, he looked the most likely winner. Bearing in mind it was only his second run after a long layoff, I think he can come on again for that run and reverse the form with Raz De Maree today.
The Bishop Looney finished a fair way back in that race as well, but I’m sure that was a prep for him for today, so I would certainly expect him to leave that running behind.
The nature of the race means that there are plenty of other dangers. However, at the prices available, I think For a Finish and The Bishop Looney give us a very strong hand in the race, with preference for the former.
For a Finish 0.75pt win 18/1
The Bishop Looney 0.25pt win 14/1
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