There are 3 reasonably interesting NH cards today, at Huntingdon, Lingfield and Sedgefield…
Last night I was pretty confident that I would have at least one tip, as I had a number of possibilities written down. However, one by one, the case for them either diminished – or the odds simply weren’t there…
Ultimately, I was left with 2 possibilities: Honest John in the 1:40 at Huntingdon and Buck Mulligan in the 3:20 at Sedgefield. However, I’ve got too many doubts about the former, whilst the price on the latter has been crushed to the point, where I can see no margin…
I’m not going to go chasing bets: it’s difficult enough to make a profit as it is. If I’m sufficiently unsure about a potential selection – or I don’t see any value in the price, then I’m going to pass on it. It’s as simple as that.
Anyway, I will offer a few words on each of the meetings –and hopefully mark your cards to some extent, starting with Sedgefield…
I’m generally not a huge fan of Sedgefield, but I have to acknowledge that they have put on a reasonable card today – both interesting and diverse…
In the opener, I think De Faiothesdream will take the beating – despite his double penalty.
He ran really well in a novice hurdle at the Cheltenham October meeting, over a trip that was probably too far for him.
He was still in contention rounding the home turn, but then his stamina gave out.
Back in trip today, he will take all the beating. However, his price of 7/4 is quite short – particularly with a number of unknown quantities opposition (most notably the Donald McCain trained Blackwater King).
Petara Bay runs in the second race on the card – and some of you may recall that I tried to tip him on the first Saturday of service, when he was withdrawn from an intended engagement at Ascot…
Clearly there is a world of difference between at Ascot novice and a Sedgefield novice – but Petara Bay was 25/1 that day and is 5/2 today…
As in the first race, he faces a number of unknown quantities –and whilst all things being equal, he should be able to fend them off, there is sufficient doubt to stop me getting involved financially…
Northern Acres looks very interesting in the handicap hurdle at 2:50, making it’s debut for an in form trainer – with his very much up-and-coming daughter on board.
However, he is facing rival at the very top of his game – and is a 7/1 shot. The appeal is therefore limited…
The race of the day, is probably the handicap chase at 3:20.
I get perilously close to issuing Buck Mulligan as an early bird tip at 6/1 last night.
However, those early evening market are ridiculously fragile and I did hope that if I said nothing, he might still be available at 5/1 this morning (at which price I would have tipped him).
However, it was no to be: I said nothing and he is still 7/2 this morning !
In truth, 7/2 is probably close to the right price. He ran very well last time out –and has been dropped 5lb as result (from a mark that was already looking workable).
That said, there are dangers – and horses with potential – so there is little margin in the price.
I may regret it, but I’m going to leave him alone today…
Over to Huntingdon next…
The other horse that I got close to tipping this morning, was Honest John…
The price is actually there for him – I just have a few too many nagging doubts about him…
In theory, he is handicapped to dot up today. He is running off a mark of 107, having started last season on a mark of 130.
I also think there is a chance that he will be best caught fresh – though this isn’t actually backed up by his form, as he has never won on his seasonal debut (though he has run OK).
However, I can see too many negatives and they ultimately have stopped me getting involved..
Firstly, he is a front runner – but he is likely to face competition for the lead from Total Rebellion. That scenario will suit neither horse.
Secondly, whilst the 3 mile trip should be fine – the soft ground won’t be so good (and will stretch his stamina even further).
Finally, he faces some potentially interesting opponents.
On balance therefore, he is a marginal ‘no bet’ !!
Later on the card, it strikes me as hugely significant that Ruby Walsh is over in the UK for just he one ride – Elenika, in the novice chase.
This suggests to me that the horse is held in high regard at home.
This suggests to me that the horse is held in high regard at home.
However, he takes on the very promising Rajdhani Experess from the Henderson yard and is a touch of odds on to beat him.
Another watching race, I feel…
Half an hour earlier, I think Soft Song should get the better of Valdez – but again, you won’t get rich backing it…
Finally to Lingfield…
Rigdeway Poppy caught my eye last time out.
She may have been a 25/1 shot that day –and ultimately finished a well beaten 4th of 6 – but until she crashed through the second last hurdle, she looked like she would go very close…
She may have been a 25/1 shot that day –and ultimately finished a well beaten 4th of 6 – but until she crashed through the second last hurdle, she looked like she would go very close…
If she had been around 8/1 this morning, I might have been prepared to take the risk – but at 4/1, I see little margin (again, with a number of unexposed rivals in opposition)…
I did spend a little time looking at the handicap chase at 3:00 – and came to the conclusion that Nozic might represent some value at 10/1…
However, he is hugely risky (to put it mildly !) having pulled up on 7 of his last 10 outings – and making his seasonal debut today !
On the other hand, he is a last time out winner – and gets to run off a mark nearly 3 stone below his peak rating !
Which slant you want to take on things, is completely down you – though I do think that he has a chance…..
Finally (and it is appropriate for him to be in such a position !), my most tipped horse from last season, Pocket Aces, runs in the handicap chase at 3:30..
He faces just 4 rivals - and runs off a mark just under 2st lower than he started last season from (and I thought he was well handicapped then !).
On the flip side, he has run disappointing race after disappointing race – and I honestly think that the horse has some kind of physical issue.
If he puts it all in today, he won’t win by a fence – he will win by 2 ! If he doesn’t though, he probably won’t win at all…
9/4 is the kind of price I can watch him run at – and just be happy if he does bounce back to form (in which case we will be on him next time, as he will still have 2 stone in hand ;) )
Until tomorrow…
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