Daily write-up - Nov 23rd

Knowing when to hold fire, is as important in this game, as knowing when to press on…

Until Tuesday, we had been pressing on to great effect – but when the opportunities dry up, the answer is to sit back and accept the situation – not to try and force it…

I only intended to take a single day off on Tuesday (and I probably wouldn’t have taken that, if the days racing had offered any opportunities) but a single day ended up as 3 - due mainly to the wet weather and the relatively poor fixtures that remained.

Still, a few days off, gave me chance to have a bit of a break and recharge my batteries a little.

I’ve go to be honest, it was only when I stood back on Tuesday that I actually realised how intense I had got.

I don’t know how much it shows, but I really have put my heart and sole into the racing – and consequently the tipping - and although I feel fine when I’m doing it, once I leave my ‘bubble’ I start to feel the effect of the intensity.

I felt drained on Tuesday – and not a lot better on Wednesday.

So much so, that I promised myself I would make taking the odd day off, a regular thing.

5 months is a long time to try and maintain such a high level of focus and I will clearly need to back off from time to time. I’ve got a few days away planned early in the new year – and a few more towards the end of March.
I will also look to take the odd midweek day, when the racing isn’t up to scratch…

At the end of the day, it is in all of our interests that I’m at the top of my game when I’m trying to find the bets…

Anyway, enough of the pre-amble !!

Only 2 domestic NH fixtures remain today, at Ascot and Haydock.

Both are good qualities cards for a Friday  - though Haydock is more a card for watching, rather than for betting. Consequently, I focused my attention on the Ascot card but I was only able to find the one small bet…

Starting at Ascot then…

As is the case with the majority of the Haydock card, the first 3 races on the Ascot card are very interesting – but not really betting mediums…

In the opener, Many Clouds looks the most likely winner to me…

He finished ninth in the Cheltenham champion bumper last season and then finished second to Grands Crus full brother, Gevrey Chambertin, at Aintree.

If he can build on that run, he will take the beating…

At a much bigger price, The Potting Shed, also looks of some interest, though he will need to step up significantly on his debut run at Exeter…

Arthurian Legend is likely to represent a bit of value in the novice chase at 1:30.

He is up against a couple of higher rated animals in Restless Harry and Minella Class – but Arthurian Legend has less question marks against him that either of his main rivals…

If Lordofthehouse consents to jump off at the same time as the rest of the field, he will take the beating in the 2:05 race.

However, if he doesn’t get off on terms, he is likely to find Close Touch, at least, too good for him…

The percentage call would probably be to oppose him…

And so onto the 3 possible betting races of the day…

2:40

I was pretty keen on tipping Kapga De Cerisy in this – but 7/2 is just too short…

I think he’s got a very good chance – close to a favourite’s chance – but it is quite a tricky contest…

Royales Charter is a chasing a hat trick and the form of his latest victory was boosted significantly when Shooters Wood won at Cheltenham, a week ago. He has gone up the handicap as a result of that success, but I think today’s longer trip could see him improve further.

Marshal Zhukov was a ready winner last time out at Chepstow – though I’ll be a little surprised if he can follow up in this tougher contest.

Pantxoa, Ackertaca and Webberys Dream are all potentially interesting.

Pantxoa is probably the most interesting of the trio –and is fairly priced too. However, he will need to improve to beat the 2 markets leaders…

And then there is Vino Grigio…

12/1 is a big price for a horse of his ability – and if connections ever find the key to him, I’ll happily back him off a stone higher mark. However, it has already proved expensive supporting his ability – when attitude is just as important in the winning of races…

On balance then, a no bet race – with Kapga De Cerisy the most likely winner – and Pantxoa an interesting EW option…

3:15

I’m sure that non of you will be too surprised to read that Loch Ba was the horse that caught my eye when I first saw the declarations for this particular race…

He was massively impressive when wining last time out at Kempton – and whilst he has been raised a stone for that victory, there can be little doubt that he would have won that particular race off his new mark…

However, the race did fall apart a bit and it is debatable what he actually ended up achieving.

Today’s opponents are tougher than the ones he faces at Kempton and whilst he could be up to the task, my minimum price to consider him at, was 5/2…

The most interesting of his rivals, is probably Carrickboy…

He was progressive for Venetia William last season, until the wheels came off somewhat, in the spring.

As result of that, he gets to run off a reduced mark today – and will also get the soft ground he prefers.

My biggest concern with him, is that he has never shown his best form fresh. However, Venetia Williams has tended not to be in such good form at this time of the year in previous campaigns, so perhaps the two go hand in hand.
Certainly if he is back to his best, Loch Ba is going to have to go some to beat him –and at the available prices, he looks worth a small wager.

0.5pt win Carrickboy 8/1

3:50

Once again, it looks to me as if the prices are about right in this race, with the most interesting runners sitting near the top of the market…

The most interesting of all is probably Petite Robin. He has been a top class 2 mile chaser and shaped last spring, as if he retained enough ability to win a hurdle race such as this, off today’s mark.

His lack of a recent run is a slight concern. But I’m sure that if the Henderson camp want him to perform at his peak today, he will do !

Ifyouletmefinish was behind Petit Robin in the Swinton hurdle last spring and opposes on the same terms today. In theory, that means that he shouldn’t be able to beat the Henderson runner – but as the younger horse, he probably has greater scope for improvement.

The other one that catches the eye, is Bourne. He ran really well on his seasonal debut, threatening to be involved in the finish until making a serious blunder at the third last. He also won a valuable handicap at this course, last February.

He looked a horse destined to go on to better things that day, but has been a little disappointing since then.

The biggest issue with him today however, is the trip. All his best form has been over 2m4f, so it seems a little odd that connections are choosing to run him over the minimum trip.

There are a few others who could be very dangerous if bouncing back to form, most notably Starluck, Dan Breen and Pascha Bere.

On balance then, a race which it was relatively easy to pass on…

Just a few words about a couple of the Haydock races:

The novice chase at 1:55 is arguably the race of the day…

Potential top-notcher, Poungach, is taken on by the very promising Gullinbursti, Super Duty and Knock a Hand. Victory for any of the 4, wouldn’t come as a big surprise.

However, if the Haydock going gets desperate, then write off Saffron De Cotte at your peril…

He may have to give his rivals 5lb but he has a heart as big as himself. If it becomes a slog in the mud, then the others will know they have been in a race..!

In the previous race, I will be interested to see how much ability Doctor David retains…

He would have been a match for all of his rivals at his peak – but whether he can still hit those heights is open to question.

There is a fascinating novice hurdle at 2:30.
The betting suggests it will be a 3 cornered affair and I wouldn’t disagree with that too, much.

Clondaw Kaempfer was very impressive last time at Aintree, but Lienosus showed tremendous promise on his debut under rules at Chepstow and if he can build on that, he may be able to surprise the market leader.

Gevrey Chambertin tries to build on his last time out success at Aintree in the novice hurdle at 3:05.

He may be able to do it – but with a field of unexposed rivals in opposition, I will be watching, rather than betting on the outcome…

Finally, It was nice to see that the ante-post bet issued earlier in the week, didn’t cause so much as a ripple in the market…

It’s easy to get paranoid when horses you tip are slashed in price – but that certainly wasn’t the case on Tuesday.

It re-assures me that it is only the weak markets which I need to be sensitive about tipping in.

In the more mature markets, there is evidently still room for a few more of my followers ;)

Here’s to a good day ahead !

TVB.