Daily write-up - Nov 29th

It’s good to be back in action today – particularly with such interesting and varied racing on offer…

Domestically there are meetings at Newbury, Taunton and Uttoxeter – whilst over in Ireland, there is an all chase card at Thurles..

I fully expected my main tipping action to be at Newbury, where there is a tremendous days sport in prospect. However, good as the races are, they are more for the viewer then the bettor.

I’ve found one small tip  - but the main betting action today, is across the Irish see at Thurles…

Thurles is one of my favourite Irish courses – and they have put on a brilliant card this afternoon.

I love chases – and I particularly love novice chases – so any card containing 3 such events is always likely to go down well with me !

Additionally, there is a very nice conditions chase (where I was also half tempted to tip) – and a couple of handicap chases.

All in all, heaven !!

I’ll start the preview with Thurles – simply because it has the main bets – and it would be no exaggeration to say they are two bets that I am particularly excited about…!!

12:30

I am very keen on Carriggen Kariega in this – I just wish today’s opposition wasn’t quite so strong…

She is a mare that I’ve been following since she retuned to racing under rules, last spring.

That return followed a successful spell in the pointing fields – which is part of the reason I fancy her today…

Her form in bumpers and over hurdles since May has been quite reasonable.
She ran very well in her first bumper back – and probably bettered that in her subsequent hurdle run at Clonmel.

Following that run, she contested a Grade 2 mares hurdle at Fairyhouse and although she finished well beaten that day, she was bang in there with a shout until the final couple of hurdles.

On that run, she is held by Carrig Millie – but I honestly don’t think there will be much between the 2 of them today…

Carrigeen Kariega has experience over fences  -and wining form in heavy ground –and I think those 2 factors could prove significant today.

I certainly expect to see her improve markedly on her already decent hurdle form – and if she able to do that, I am optimistic that she will be able to run into a place, at very least…

0.5pt EW Carrigeen Kariega 33/1

3:20

If I’m sweet on Carrigeen Kariega today - then I’m positively smitten with Another Fluttter !

Once again, he is a horse that I’ve been following for a long time.

He was impressive when making a wining chasing debut at Thurles 18 months ago.

I was sure that he would go on from that victory – however he disappointed the next twice and then was off the course for over a year…

He reappeared at the Listowel festival this September – and although he was pulled up that day, he showed some promise.

It was the same next time at Limerick – this time over hurdles – he again showed promise but was ultimately pulled up.

Last time out at Punchestown however, it was a very different story.

In the van throughout, he only weakened on the run to the last and whilst he was  a shade lucky to secure fourth place – there was immeasurable promise in the run…

Today, Another Flutter is running off a mark of 95 – a full 12lb below the mark he was given flowing his novice chase victory. That makes him look well handicapped to me…

He has also run himself back into form, in a very subtle manner…

Finally, the icing on the cake (and you should know by now that I like a bit of icing ;)  ), is the booking of John Cullen…

He is a jockey I really like. He does nothing flash – but always gives his horses a good ride. I particularly like him on front runners –and Another Flutter is a front runner.

Expect to see John have Another Flutter there or thereabouts throughout  - and hopefully he will prove good enough to see off all of his rivals in the home straight.

0.75pt EW Another Flutter 16/1

Last night, I did think there was a chance that I would be tipping in the Glen chase, at 1:35…

The main reason for me thinking that way was because Forpadytheplaster had been installed quite a short priced favourite.

Now Fordpady is a horse I like – but he is not a 3 mile chaser- and he does not want heavy ground. Therefore with that combination today, I felt he had to be opposed…

With Oscar Time returning from a long break and Berties Dream generally under-performing, I felt the 2 to concentrate on were Allee Guard and Snooze.

However, the early markets have now been corrected and those 2 are at prices where there is very little margin…

Consequently it has become a watching race – but a very interesting one none the less…

There is a fascinating card at Newbury – but most of the races are nearly impossible to call and it has only yielded the one tip…

1:30

My eye was initially drawn to Tycoons Reflection in this race…

He is making his debut for Mick Channon and I suspect we are yet to see the best of him.

Whether today will be the day that he reveals his true talents however, remains to be seen.
I suspect he will ultimately end up a better chaser than he is a hurdler- so maybe one to watch with a view to the future…

Another one who is likely to make a better chaser than he is hurdler, is Bathwick Brave – but I’m not sure that will stop him winning today !!
He was mightily impressive last time when winning a hurdle race at Uttoxeter and I think there is every chance that he will be able to follow up today off a 7lb higher mark.

Certainly the impost of 11st7lb, even in soft ground, is not going to bother him – he is a giant of a horse.

He will also have the assistance of AP in the saddle, if he is ever in 2 minds about putting it all in !

Not that I have any questions marks over his attitude. He looks a thoroughly straight forward horse and one that has been steadily improving since his summer transfer form the stable of David Pipe.

Clearly the favourite, Ivors King, will take a bit of beating in his chase for a 4 timer. However he is running off a mark almost 30lb higher today that when he started his successful spree and I wonder if that will just prove a bit too much…

Otto the Great has form linked in to Ivors King but I would be a little concerned about him over today’s trip.

In short, I think Bathwick Brave will take the beating today – and 6/1 was a fair enough price to get involved…

0.5pt win Bathwick Brave 6/1

Elsewhere on the Newbury card..

I was half expecting to tip Rigadin De Beauchene in the handicap chase at 2:40…

I’m quite a fan of the horse and he made a very nice seasonal debut at Uttoxeter at the back end of last month.

He has been raised 3lb for that run – but I suspect he can still be competitive off his new mark.
However, I think today’s race will take some winning !

The top two in the weights are also the top 2 in the betting and victory for either would come as no surprise…

Alvorado was impressive last time out; whilst Cedre Bleu has always looked a decent horse and first time out is likely to be the time to catch him..

Additionally, strong cases can be made for Tour Des Champs and Sizing Santiago.

In short, Rigadin is fifth best in the betting – and that is probably about right !

In the opener on the card, it will be fascinating to see if Aaim to Prosper can translate his high class flat form to hurdles…

If he can, then even over what is likely to be an inadequate stamina test, he will take all the beating.

2/1 is probably not a bad price (even though I won’t be playing !)

There is a really interesting handicap chase at 12:55 where a case can be made for most of the runners…

If backed into a corner, I would go with Elenika, who beat a decent sort of his British debut at Huntingdon and who may be able to improve for that initial experience.

The race of the day, is probably the Worcester Novice chase at 2:05.
It’s not often that you see a contest where every runner won last time out -  but they did in this !

Houblon Des Obeaux is officially the best horse in the race and was very impressive last time out,. He is a worthy favourite.

However, it will be no surprise if one of his opponents today improved enough to given him a stern challenge.

Of the others, then Benefficient may prove to be a bit of value at 9/1 – but really this is another watching race…

Finally, the bumper – and those subtle signs…

Today they say to me Westaway could be the one –and that 11/2 is not too bad a price…

I’ve nothing much to say about the days 2 others meetings at Taunton and Uttoxeter…

At Taunton, I thought Paintball could be interesting on the 2:15 off a mark only 2lb higher than when he won the Imperial Cup (if you ignore the fact that Keilan Woods claims).

However, I don’t like the fact he has top weight; or that he is not running over the minimum trip – and I suspect that if he was expected to run a big race, he would be much stronger in the market.

In the finale, I could have been very interested in Queens Grove – over half a mile further.

I know she is half sister to Ashley Brook –and he wasn’t devoid of pace – but she struggled to get there over half a mile further last time out, so I just can’t see her having sufficient toe to win today…

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong – but I won’t be betting on her…

As for Uttoxeter – keep an eye on My Flora, making her debut for Donald McCain in the opener.

2 miles over hurdles is not exactly what she wants – but she may well be too good for her rivals regardless.

Next time out, back over fences at a more suitable trip, she will be of more interest…

Here’s to a great day ahead.

TVB.