Daily write-up - Nov 11th

A brace of domestic NH meetings at Ffos Las and Market Rasen; matched by a brace in Ireland at Navan and Limerick…

I say ‘matched’ but the meeting of the day – by some margin – takes place at the County Meath track of Navan.

Some of the real NH heavy-weights make their seasonal debuts there today – but I’m far from convinced that the big guns will have everything their way…

First up is the brilliant mare, Voler La Vadette, who tries to repeat her victory of 12 months ago, in the Lismullen hurdle.

She faces stiff competition in the shape of the Willie Mullins trained So Young, but I think (and hope !) that she will have his measure…

Just over the an hour later, is the race of the day (and the first tip of the day !).

2:50

The Fortria chase may only have attracted a field of 5 – but it is a very select field.

The most exciting runner is undoubtedly Flemenstar. He looked a horse of immeasurable potential last season, when he won on his final 5 outings of the campaign – including 2 at grade 1 level.

The expectation is that he will scale even greater heights this season – but today’s race is very much a pipe opener and I think he is beatable, by the right horse…

The question is whether the right horse is running in the race today !!

Initially I was very interested in Big Zeb. He has won this race in the past 3 seasons, however there were definite signs of deterioration last year and with him rising 12, his best days are almost certainly behind him.

Fioldubh will be fit; has perfect conditions and receives weight from all his rivals. However, with the best will in the world it difficult to make a case for him being a grade 2 horse.

The same is true of Mr Cracker, who will doubtless try to take the field along – but really needs a greater test than today’s 2 miles –and probably isn’t up to this class anyway…

That just leaves Realt Dubh.

He is a grade 1 winner over fences and also ran probably his best race over the bigger obstacles last spring, when chasing him a bang in form Sizing Europe at the Punchestown festival.

On that form he will take all the beating today – and he also has the benefit of an outing this season.

That was in the JN Wine chase last Saturday, when he cruised through the race but didn’t quite get home.

Provided that race hadn’t left its mark, I think Realt Dubh will take the world of beating today.

1pt win Realt Dubh 11/4

 

Now onto Ffos Las – and the early bird tip issued yesterday evening…

3:05    

I would have loved to have been able to put up Stow as a mainline tip, at 14/1 this morning (I would have been more than happy to put him up as a mainline tip at 10/1) – but I know there was absolutely no chance of that being able to happen…

I can’t imagine what the odds compilers were doing, opening up with him as a 14/1 shot.

The Rebecca Curtis/ Patrick Corbett combination – particularly at Ffos Las – should have set alarm bells ringing – but it clearly didn’t…

More than that, the horse has got very decent form from last season, which suggests it has a live chance, regardless on any improvement that might have been brought about by a stable move…

As followers of TVB early bird from last season, will doubtless recall, Stow is a horse I tipped on his final 3 runs.

On the first of those, he was hammered down to 3/1 (from an opening 10/1) at Chepstow over the Christmas period. He ran a very odd race that day  - but bounced back to form on this following run, when he ran the very well handicapped Reindeer Dippin close ay Haydock.

On his final run of the campaign, he finished a very creditable fifth, behind some progressive rivals at Newbury.

Stow faces no such progressive rival today and gets to run off the same mark that he ran off at Haydock. In short, he is well handicapped.

He will be very well suited by the soft ground and 3 miles trip – whilst the 10lb claim of apprentice Patrick Corbett, is a gift !

The only real concern, is whether Rebecca Curtis had him fully wound up for the first run of the campaign.

His not a horse that has run particularly well fresh in the past  - so we are taking a risk on that score.

However, if she has got him close to 100%, then he has a great chance of getting the early-bird service off to a flying start!

If possible, I would like to know roughly how many of you managed to secure a double-digit price on Stow yesterday evening.

If you did manage to get 10/1+ on him, can you please email me sometime over the next couple for days, and let me know.
This will help give me some idea of how successful the early bird service is likely to be…

1pt win Stow 14/1 B365

3:40

I was originally attracted to this race by the presence of Fishoutofwater.

As I’m sure a few of you will recall, he ran as recently as Monday, in Loch Bas race at Kempton.

Fishoutofwater was pulled up that day – but ran a strange race, having been heavily backed beforehand.

I thought it particularly interesting that connections had opted to run him again inside a week – but he has now been withdrawn from the contest.

In truth, even before his withdrawal, I had decided that he wasn’t going to be my main bet in the race (though I was going to have a saver on him).

Instead, that honour was going to fall to the Michael Scudamore trained Bounds and Leaps.

She was successful on her seasonal debut last year, when dotting up in a chase at Chepstow.

Nothing went right for her from that point onwards – though she ran a couple of fair races, which suggested that she can be competitive off today’s mark.

As a bold front runner, I suspect she is the sort who goes best fresh anyway – and the fact she should have an uncontested lead today, is a big bonus.

There is a slight question mark over the ground - her best runs last season were on quick ground.

However she ran well over hurdles on soft ground, so hopefully that won’t prove an issue.

Assuming Tom Scudamore does get her to the front and into a nice rhythm, I think she will take lot of passing today…

0.75pt win Bounds and Leaps 5/1

Finally, to Market Rasen and the novice handicap chase…

2:15

I have to admit that there is a danger of Vino Griego becoming my ‘cliff’ horse (as in I will follow him over a cliff trying to get him to win !).

He is 13 run maiden over fences – and I must have backed him in at least half of those races !

The thing is, he travels like a class horse – in fact, I think he is a class horse ! – it’s just that he has a reticence to win !

However, I think he has such a lot of things in his favour today, I simply have to have him onside.

Firstly, he has been dropped 4lb in the handicap for an irrelevant seasonal debut at Huntingdon. He’s never been a horse to back first time out –and so it was no surprise that he was well beaten at Huntingdon.

That takes his handicap mark to 126 – and for a horse with his ability, a mark well into the 140s should be achievable.

However, the most important thing for VinoGriego, is the way a race is run. All of his best runs have been in big fields handicaps. However, I think it is the pace of the race – rather than the number of runners – that sees him performing well in this kind of contest.

He only races 6 rivals today – but 2 of them are confirmed front runners and two more like to race prominently. In short, it should be a burn up over the sharp Lincolnshire track.
If that is the case, Jamie Moore should be able to ride a waiting race on Vino Griego and bring him to challenge u p the home straight, as the others are tiring.
If it all goes to plan, I could see Vino Griego crossing the line as his nearest rival jumps the last – if it doesn’t, there will always be another day ;)

0.5pt win Vino Griego 8/1

Just one other quick mention at Market Rasen where in the novice hurdle at 1:40, I will not be surprised if Barrakilla under Paul Maloney, gets the better of favourite Mr Watson (the horse that tried to re-arrange APs face at Wetherby). You are not going to get too rich backing him to do so, though !!

Here’s to a good day ahead…

TVB.