Daily write-up - Nov 19th

Just a couple of NH meetings today, at Leicester and Plumpton respectively…

After the intensity of the weekend, I was kind of hoping for an easy day today – and expecting Plumpton and Leicester to provide it – but I knew as soon as I looked at the cards, that I was going to be disappointed !!

For a Monday afternoon, at a couple of relatively low-key courses, they are surprisingly good cards.

Plumpton, in particular, has put on a meeting that looks both interesting and varied…

I’ve found a couple of tips – and I did consider a couple more… Let’s hope I’ve made the right calls…!!

Starting at Plumpton…

1:50

Those of you with particularly good memories, might recall that I was considering tipping Ballypatrick when he made his seasonal debut in a hot novice chase at Ascot, on the first Saturday of the month.

I didn’t, because he was put in too short that day – although he subsequently drifted in the betting. In truth, we got a lucky break, as he unseated his jockey at the third fence – but I still managed to see enough for me to want to be with him next time he ran…

In a way, it’s a shame that he has chosen this particular race to reappear in. It looks a very hot contest – and the favourite, Broadbackbob will clearly take the world of beating.

However, it is a novice chase – and Broadbackbob has never jumped a fence before in public. Stranger things have certainly happened…

Not that it is even a 2 horse race, to be fair !

Temp De Cotte is an interesting looking French import, trained by Paul Nicholls; whilst Aikideau had some very decent hurdles form last season – and Sweet Irony also showed some hurdling promise before disappointing on his chasing debut…

All in all, a pretty hot novice chase for a Monday afternoon !

However, I do have a feeling that Ballypatrick could make up into a good class novice chaser and – assuming he gets round without mishap – I will be a little surprised if there are more than 2 in the field with more ability than he has…

A risky selection for sure- but, at 20/1 or greater, a value one…

0.5pt EW Ballypatrick 25/1

Half an hour later, Ballypatrick’s stable companion, Ballylifen looks just about the most likely winner of a very competitive novice hurdle.

He gets 7lb from the 2 previous hurdling winners in the field – and will have the benefit of jumping experience over the other main protagonist in the contest.

However, his price of 7/2 doesn’t have a great deal of juice in it…

I dare say that one or two of you (Dan ?) thought/hoped that I might put up Nozic in the handicap chase that will be run at 2:40 – and it certainly crossed my mind…

He ran a fair race at Lingfield, just last Tuesday, when staying on into fourth place, behind, amongst others, Lord Singer…

He is certainly handicapped to run well today – and his price is just about acceptable. However I have a few too many doubts to make him a bet…

Firstly, I have concerns about him – and Lord Singer – making such a quick reappearance after relatively a gruelling race, less than a week ago. Secondly, and even more importantly, I don’t think he is going to be quite good enough to withstand the challenge of the top 2 in the market…

Quobilia ran a really good race on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago at Taunton. He cut out the pace for most of that race, until tiring in the final half mile.

The 2 horses who finished first and second that day, looked useful animals – with the runner up, Shooters Wood, really franking the form by taking the big handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday.

Quobilai has actually been dropped 2lb for that run – and if he stays the trip, he will take the world of beating today…

However, there might just be one in the race capable of beating him !

Camden was a decent novice hurdler the season before last, but did absolutely nothing like season (like many of his stablemates). However he made his debut in a hot novice chase at the beginning of this month and showed a deal of promise to finish fifth.
If he can build on that then he could look very well handicapped indeed off a mark of just 115.

I don’t even find it possible to rule out the other 3 runners today, so as you can see, making Nozic a bet was never really an option…

Over at Leicester…

1:10

2 horses caught my eye in this particular race: Nom De Guerre and Red Rouble…

Of the 2, I have a slight preference for Nom De Guerre – and as he was also the bigger price, it seemed sensible to make him the tip ;)

Red Rouble has frequently promised to be a decent horse – but keeps on disappointing. There is a chance he will be better after a recent break – but I do have some reservations about him on the quick ground that he will encounter at Leicester…

Nom De Guerre is a horse that demonstrated a fair amount of ability as a novice chaser – running creditably against the likes of French Opera and West End Rocker…

Clearly he has had some problems however, as he was off the course for 2 years from the spring of 2010 until spring this year when he reappeared over hurdles at Aintree -  though showed very little that day.

His next outing was the last time he ran –and he showed a lot more then !

Funnily enough, he was backed to do so – into an SP of 15/2 in a competitive handicap chase at Kempton.

He ran very well that day until tiring in the home straight.

He has been dropped 3lb for that run - which is kind of the handicapper – because I’m not sure it is really needed.

However, what is needed, is for an evidently fragile horse to remain sound – if he does, I think Nom De Guerre will go very close today…

0.5pt win Nom De Guerre 11/2

Finally a quick mentioned for the handicap hurdle at 2:40, where I was half tempted by the top weight, Shadows lengthen…

He was a fair hurdler last season and actually won of this mark at Doncaster in December. He ran a couple of fair races after that, but has disappointed on his last 2 outings (at the back end of last season and beginning of this).

If Mick Easterby has him back to his best – and the stable want him to win today – he is handicapped to go very close.

He is 15/2 at the moment – if he gets backed further, you should take the hint…!

Here’s hoping for a great day !

TVB.