Daliy write-up - Nov 3rd

An absolutely cracking days racing, with top class cards at Ascot, Wetherby and Down Royal (I dare say that the one at Ayr is OK aswell – I’ve just not had time to check it out !).

I’ve got so much to say, it’s difficult to know where to begin ! So what I’ll do, is work my way through the cards, race by race, offering advice on each race that I have a view on – and obviously, high-lighting the tips for the day…

Starting with Ascot:

When I first looked at his card, yesterday lunchtime, I was taken aback by the quality !

The wet summer has a lot to answer for – but getting all the decent jumpers back on the track by the beginning of  November, is a definite plus !

I don’t have a strong view on the novice handicap hurdle that opens the card.

There are 16 runners and victory for any of them would not come as a complete surprise.

It was easy enough to pass on the race…

The novice chase, due off at 1:25 looks an absolute cracker – and is close to the race of the day, in my book !

I did think I might have a tip in it, as I expected Ballypatrick to be put in much bigger than the best price of 12/1. If he had been double that price, I would have been tempted by a speculative wager – but at those odds, I’ll have to watch him.

Of the others, Act of Kalanisi, Hadrian’s Approach, Swincombe Flame, Rolling Aces and The Druids Nephew, could all turn out to be high class chasers – and I haven’t given up on Handy Andy, just yet.

All in all, a race to savour – but probably not to bet in…

The first tip of the day, comes in the 2:00 race, in the form of Petara Bay…

He is a very decent flat racer, who has reached a rating high of 108 on the level and is still rated 103 in that discipline (and ran to close to that mark as recently as August).

He made his hurdling debut earlier this week, jumping proficiently and even looking as if he might win, at one point.

With that run under his belt, he will be sharper today – and I really struggle to see why he has been put in at such a big price…

There is very little between him and Chiberta King, on the level – and yet that one has been priced up at 7/1, despite having no hurdling experience.

The 2 that head the market, My Tent or Yours and Taquin Du Soleil, are both totally unexposed and have the potential to be anything.

However, they have proved very little (just 1 hurdle victory between them) and have been put in very short.

There is little doubt in my mind, that Petara Bay is worth a small bet to cause an upset.

0.5pt win Petara Bay win 25/1

I could be very keen on Nampour in the handicap hurdle – if it weren’t such a strong race…

The top 2 in the handicap are virtual grade performers – and it is always risky to oppose those types in handicaps; whilst there are a handful of runners who have the potential to be much better than their current mark (It’s a Gimme, Ted Spread, Claret Cloak and Il De Re, to name but 4). Additionally, you have War Singer and Cape Express, who are currently at the top of their game.

One thing’s for sure, the race will take some wining –and there will be plenty of future winners come out of it.

Despite this, I am happy to tip Nampour, who was a massive eye-catcher last time out – and amazingly, has been dropped a pound for that run.

The race in question, was at Aintree, last weekend and Nampour tanked his way through that contest until seemingly blowing up in the final half mile.

He was ultimately comfortably beaten by Cape Express that day – but I suspect there might be a different outcome today.

Certainly, if Nampour has come on for the run, I think he has to go very close- though obviously, confidence is limited a little by the strength of today’s opposition.

0.5pt EW Nampour 20/1

I did expect to be tipping Ace High in the United House Gold cup. He ran really well last time out at Chepstow, looking as if he would take all the beating with that run under his belt.

However, a quote of 5/1 this morning is tight in such a competitive race.

It’s not difficult to make a case for at least half a dozen others in the race –the most interesting of whom might be Roberto Goldback. If he improves for the switch to Nicky Henderson, he could well be up to taking this prize.

Again. I expected to be tipping in the Byrne Group handicap chase today – but the prices on offer on the two I am interested in, just weren’t where I wanted them to be…

The first is Falcon Island, who was a pre-season selection, last weekend. He ran a cracker that day and if he has come on for that run, he will go close today.

The other is more speculative (and so I thought I might get a price – but no !).

Doctor David is a horse I love – and I know he runs well fresh. However, 12/1 almost assumes he will be in top condition today – which is not guaranteed.

Both horses were close to being small bets last night – but at the odds on offer, I couldn’t quite justify either.

I’ve also got a concern over how the race will be run. There is an abundance of pace – and jockeyship/luck is bound to play a part in the outcome.

If either horse drifts significantly before the off, I might have a small interest-  but otherwise, it will be a watching brief.

Over at Wetherby:

It is a shame to see that Overturn will be missing his intended chasing debut in the opening contest. I guess there will be other days for him.

In the second, Lordofthehouse could be an interesting debutant over hurdles – assuming he consents to jump off !
The listed mares hurdle looks a 3 cornered affair. You pays your money, you makes your choice (mine would be Baby Shine).

And then we come on to the main events…

The John Smiths hurdle looks to me, to rest between Smad Place and Cape Tribulation.

There is nothing between the pair on official ratings and whilst, as the younger horse it is reasonable to think that Smad Place might have the greater scope for improvement, Cape Tribulation has improved significantly over the past year –and there is no reason to think that has stopped yet.

The other thing that swings me in favour of Cape Tribulation (apart from the price ! ) is that he is guaranteed to be race fit, having run well in a decent flat handicap at York, just last month.

Of the others, Tidal Bay looks to have a theoretical chance, but I’m happy enough to take him on; whilst Fair Along, game though he is, is unlikely to repeat his victory of 2010 in this race. He finished runner up last year – beaten out of sight by Restless Harry and if there is to be an upset today, I think restless Harry is most likely to cause it. However, he faces much stronger opposition this year – and also has a penalty to carry for last year’s victory.

1pt win Cape Tribulation 7/2

Whatever way you look at it, Silviano Conti simply has to be taken on in the Charlie Hall chase, at a best price of 6/4.

He has been priced up so short, primarily on hype – with some potential thrown in. With Kauto Star now retired, there is almost a desperation to find a new flag barer for Paul Nicholls – and Silviano Conti is the current number 1 contender for that roll.

However, he just doesn’t have the form to suggest he will reach those kind of heights and whilst he does still have a fair bit of potential, I’m more than happy to take him on at the current prices.

That said, the options for taking him on this particular race, are quite limited and Planet of Sound stands head and shoulders above the rest of his opposition.

He is a horse who runs his best races fresh and first time out last season, he ran a screamer to be touched off in the Hennessey Gold cup. He then ran third in the Racing Post chase before running unplaced in the Grand National.

On paper, that was his poorest run of the season  - but those who saw it are unlikely to forget the way he took on the National fences, reminiscent of the mighty Crisp, until just running out of stamina over the final few obstacles.

The trip will hold no fears today – and the fact he receives weight from most of the field is a bonus.

If the ground was just a bit quicker, he would be a 2 point bet – but with concern over how it will be riding (Overturn has been taken out of the first because it is too soft) I have reluctantly settled on just 1 point win

1pt win Planet of Sound 11/2

Just a quick mention for the Down Royal card – or more specifically the big race on that card, the JN wine Champion chase.

The outcome of this race is going to depend, to a large extent, on the state of the ground.

On decent ground, Sizing Europe will take the beating – though I could also see First Lieutenant and Follow the Plan running big races.

However, if the ground is on the soft side, then Quito De La Roque should be the one to beat – with Joncol possibly outrunning his odds.

However, with a lot of uncertainty – and a competitive field, it is another race where I would recommend viewing rather than betting…

Finally, I am thinking of restarting activity on Twitter…

As many of you will know, I’m not a huge fan of the medium (I don’t like the anonymity) – but I acknowledge that it does serve a purpose.

My plan is to go on there at lunchtimes and offer some views on any value avaialble at that point in the day. I would use the name TheValueBettor, rather than TVB.earlybird, which I was using previously…

Anyway, it is just an idea I have had – I’ll keep you posted on developments…!

Here’s hoping for a great day !

TVB.