Daily write-up - Nov 7th

There are 2 domestic NH meetings today, at Chepstow and Warwick – with a further meeting over the jumps at Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Before I get onto previewing today’s racing, just a few more words on the ‘tweaks’ to the service, which I announced yesterday…

Obviously, it is still very early days for the service, so it is kind of inevitable that some minor changes will need to be made as it beds in.

My sole aim, is to provide you guys with quality information – and quality tips – which will make your betting experience more enjoyable and profitable.

If I come across something that is preventing me from doing that, I will act to remove it immediately – and that is basically what I did with yesterdays changes.

I’ve had some feedback to the changes – which is very much appreciated –and it has been very positive.

I think you can all see where I am coming from and the feeling seems to be that the changes will be for the better.

Just to recap then, TVB will effectively be a 3 faceted service consisting of:

- Early-bird tips

- Race previews

- Main-line tips

The ‘early bird’ tips will be opportunistic tips, released as soon as bookmakers price up races.

They will be focusing on weak, immature markets  - and will not be suitable for everyone (due to bookmaker restrictions).

I would expect the majority of these tips to be issued before 6:00 in the evening, Sunday through to Thursday.

The race previews, are the daily write-ups which cover in some detail, various races to be run that day. What I will try and do with these, is high-light over-priced horses and angles on races, that might have been generally missed.
I would see the main value of the write-ups (apart from general interest) to be for people who like to back and lay horses on Betfair (for example, Rubert yesterday could have been back at 30+ on BF – and touched 6 IR, before his stamina gave out)

The ‘main line’ tips, will be the core of the service. These will be conventional tips, in strong, mature markets, where everyone should be able to get the recommended price (or close to it).

The majority of main line tips (over 90%), will be in the better class races (class 3 and above). Some of these tips will be issued the night before: some in the morning (I will retain the evening and morning tipping ‘windows’ for these tips).

It is the ‘main line’ tips, that the service will be judged on (from the outside, at least).

So there you have, one week in and we already have a new improved TVB service !

TVB really is a service that no serious punter should operate without ;)     

So, onto today’s action, where there is both a mainline tip – and an early bird tip – and views on a few other races !!

Starting with the mainline tip:

Chepstow 2:00

Firstly apologies for leading you up the garden path last night by saying there would be no mainline tip today !

However, when I woke this morning and saw that Top Dancer had drifted from 8/1 last night, to 12/1 this morning (14/1 in a place) I figured he was worth a small play.

The case for Top Dancer today, is based solely around ‘value’…

He doesn’t have a particular edge that others might have missed – he just has a fair chance of winning an open looking race.

Pocket Too is definitely the stand out contender in the race – but at 2/1, he looks a little short to me.

It is also possible to make cases for the likes of Cresswell Crusader, Kellystown Lad and Old Way, based primarily on them showing improvement for various reasons.

However, Top Dancer looks a solid option. He has only run 5 times over hurdles in this country and seems to be a gradual improver.

His best run last season, was his final outing of the campaign, when he finished third in a competitive 17 runner handicap hurdle at Aintree.

He ran reasonably well on his seasonal debut – also at Aintree – 11 days ago – where he was still in contention entering the home straight, until lack of condition appeared to find him out.

I think it reasonable to assume he will come on for that run and be a much more potent force today.

My main concern with him, is the ground. He is unproven on heavy (never mind Chepstow heavy !), and as a consequence, I feel win only is the way to go (in case he bombs completely on the going).

In my tissue last night, I had him around a 7/1 shot – so at double that price this morning – even with potential improvers in the race – he warrants a small play.

Main Line - 0.5pt win Top Dancer 14/1

Chepstow 2:30

I’ve been waiting for Sophonie to run…!!

As followers from last year will know, I latched on to the mare early last season.

At the time, she was in the care of Ferdy Murphy and she ran well on a number of occasions – including when registering a victory at Uttoxeter.

The key to Sophonie, is 2 miles and heavy ground – which is precisely what she gets today.

Now with Tom George, she actually made her seasonal debut a fortnight ago. That was over 2m4f at Exeter on good to soft ground. Despite not facing ideal conditionss, Sophonie was still backed into 2/1 favourite in a quite a competitive 9 horse race – suggesting that connections felt that had a well handicapped horse (which I believe they do !).

She cantered into the lead round the home turn that day, looking sure to oblige (trading at 1.18 IR !) – but then emptied up the run in.

Assuming that run has brought her on (and not sent her back) and that her jumping holds up, then she really will take the world of beating today in a race that doesn’t look as strong at the Exeter one..

Early Bird – 3pt win Sophonie 2/1

In the 3:40 race, I think Royal Mile will take some beating – and his price of even money actually looks on the generous side to me !!

Over at Warwick, the clash between Cantlow and Hazy Tom in the novice chase, will very much be worth seeing.

Provided he is tuned up, Cantlow would make some appeal at a price of 5/2.

Finally, at Fairyhouse, Aladdins Cave looks interesting in the handicap hurdle at 1:40.

He has had a couple of recent runs on the flat, which should have blown away the cobwebs.

His price of 6/1 isn’t overly generous – but it does look quite fair…

Here’s hoping for a decent day !

TVB.