Daily write-up - Nov 16th

The NH season has been simmering nicely for the past month or so – but over the next 3 days, it will really explode into life !

The Cheltenham Open meeting is upon us and we are currently sat on the verge of 3 of the best days racing of the entire season.

As promised, I will run through each of the 6 races on day 1, briefly giving my views and trying to high-light any angles that I may have noticed.

I should just mentioned that there is a second NH meeting taking place today – up at Newcastle – but I don’t intend to dwell on that for too long ;)

So, onto the days action – and what a race to start off proceedings…

1:15

The meeting begins with the novice chase that was won last year, by Grands Crus…

Even more impressive, if you go back a few years, both Denman and Imperial Commander were successful. The race certainly has tradition !

This years renewal looks right up to scratch – and it is likely to take a performance from the very top draw to win.

There is a field of just 5 runners – and whilst all have significant potential, I will be a little surprised if the winner isn’t one of the top 2 in the market…

Fingal Bay was one of the best novices hurdlers around last season. His only defeat came at the Aintree festival, when he was maybe slightly over the top.

He made a wining seasonal debut over fences at Chepstow last month –and whilst not wildly impressive, his style has always been more workman-like.
If he is to get beaten today, whatever takes his scalp is likely to know they have been in a race.
On official handicap ratings over hurdles, Dynaste is the best horse in the race – and he gets 5lb from Fingal Bay. However he will be making his seasonal debut and the 2m5f trip is likely to be the bare minimum for him over fences.

That said, if his jumping is up to scratch, he will take a bit of beating.

Of the other 3, Unioniste is probably the most interesting. He is only 4 – but is already dual winner over fences (including on his British debut at Aintree).

However, he will need to improve on what he has shown so far if he is to trouble the principals…

Carlito Brigante is a high class animal. He is the most experienced chaser in the field and the trip and course will be perfect for him.

However he has to give weight to the entire field – and was well beaten behind Unioniste last time.

I’m a little loathed to write him off, but I can’t help but feel that the novice handicap at the festival is his long term aim…

Thehillofuisneach could well develop into a decent chaser himself. However he has been disappointing on his last few outings and against such high class opposition, it takes a bit of imagination to see him figuring.

In short, a race to watch – and one where I expect the finish to be fought out by Fingal Bay and Dynaste. If Dynaste jumps with fluency, he will be hard to pass – but I expect to see Fingal Bay run him down, up the Cheltenham hill…

1:50

A really competitive 2 mile chase – and the first tip of the day…

I’m taking a bit of a chance with the French trained Wetak – but at the odds, I think he is worth a small play.

Obviously it is difficult to gauge precisely what he has achieved in his home country – but we did get to see him a couple of weeks ago, when he ran in a novice hurdle at Ascot.

He finished quite well beaten that day but he showed distinct promise in cutting out the running until the home turn - and the horses that filled the first 2 spots, look novices from the highest draw.

Wetak looked the third best horse in the race (despite ultimately only finishing fifth) and purely on that form, a mark of 126 looks quite workable.

Wetak also has the advantage of plenty of chasing experience, despite only being 5 years old – and will be cherry ripe, as he has run 3 times in the past couple of months.

Of the opposition, then it is easy to make half a case for a number of his rivals – but difficult to make a compelling case for any of them…

Kid Cassidy was certainly an eye-catcher last time out – but I’m far from convinced that Cheltenham is his course and at 4/1, he looks opposable; Astracad is also potentially interesting, though he will be doing well to win such a tough race with top weight on his seasonal debut.
In fact, of the fancied horses, I am most drawn to Silver Roque. He surprised me with the pace he showed to lay up last time out at Aintree. I would expect him to be better suited to the course at Cheltenham and would probably make him just about the most likely winner of the race.

Despite his form figure’s it is not difficult to see Free World running a big race; whilst  Salute Him catches the eye at the foot of the handicap, with Maurice Linehan taking off 7lb . On recent form he has no chance – but if significant money does come for him, be afraid – be very afraid !!

On balance though, I am happy to take a small risk on the French invader, Wetak.

0.5pt win Wetak 20/1

2:25

Dodging Bullets sets a very high standard in this novice hurdle – and in truth, it is difficult to see him getting beaten…

He was a high class juvenile last season, when he finished fourth in the Triumph hurdle. He actually looked just about the best horse in that race that day – cruising round the outside on the home turn, but ultimately not quite getting up the hill.

With a summer on his back, he is likely to have strengthened and I doubt he will be found wanting up the hill this time.

In theory, he faces quite stiff competition from Tominator, in particular.

He is a top class distance handicapper on the flat (he won the Northumberland Plate, last season) and was successful on his hurdling debut at Bangor, last month.

It is not difficult to see him progressing though the season, but he has probably bitten off a bit more than he can chew at this stage of his career, by taking on Dodging Bullets..

Of the others, Court Minstrel and River Maigue are both potentially interesting – but again, they will have their work cut out to beat the favourite.

Of the Irish contingent, than I think that Magic Spear is by far the most interesting.
He got bogged down in the mud last time, but had previously looked decidedly decent.
He represents decent EW value in the race- and who knows, he might even be capable of giving the favourite a little bit to think about…!

3:00

Gone are the days when this was an uncompetitive novelty race, won with monotonous regularity by Spotthedifference.

Today’s race is a seriously competitive handicap – and one where at least half a dozen horses can be given a real chance…

Despite that, I honestly feel that there is only one horse in the race that I can tip !

The horse in question, is the Czech trained Orphee Des Blins. The reason for this, is that she won the definitive cross country chase – the Velda Pardubika – in her native Czech republic, just over a month ago. The thing is, she didn’t just win it – she absolutely dotted up – by 16 lengths hard held !

As she was an outsider that day, the tendency is to think it was a bit of a fluke – but it is often dangerous to make such an assumption.

Uncle Junior finished miles behind her that day – and gets to oppose on worse terms today (yet is a shorter price). She also had Maljimar well beaten – and he has plenty of decent cross country form in this country, which makes her performance look even more meritorious.

Simply, if she reproduces her running of last moth, I can’t see her getting beaten today !

Of course, if she doesn’t, then the race looks wide open…

Balthazar King is the obvious place to start – but he tends to be best when fresh and on a sound surface – he will get neither of those conditions today.

Sizing Australia should run a decent race again – as should Wedger Pardy. Whilst I could also see Midnight Haze putting in a big run.

However, the bet simply has to be Orphee Des Blins in the hope that she can repeat her famous big race victory.

0.75pt win Orphee Des Blins 7/1

3:35

Despite the number of runners in this race, I think it can be whittled down to about half a dozen likely winners.

However, the number of runners does mean that luck will play a bigger part than I would like – and that makes me cautious about giving an official tip.

That said, I am pretty keen on one horse in the race and on balance, I think he is worth a small play…

The horse in question is Buck Magic, who makes his debut for Neil Mulholland today

He is very lightly raced – but has shown glimpses of real talent and yet gets to run off a very attractive mark.
There is a slight concern over his fitness – as today is his seasonal debut. However he has run well fresh in the past, so I am hopeful this won’t be an issue…

On his seasonal debut last season, he finished third behind subsequent grade 1 winner Lovcen. He had a number of very useful animals behind that day and yet gets to run off a mark just 1lb higher today.

In terms of dangers – then apart for the sheer number of runners (and consequently the need for a fair bit of luck in running), I would pick out Top Wood, Saint Roque and Titan De Sarti – though in fairness, you don’t have to be a genius to do that, as they are the first 3 in the betting !

At longer prices, I thought that both High Storm and Coffee looked interesting.
However, I am really keen on Buck Magic as an animal – and am just hoping that he is sufficiently fit to do himself justice and that he gets the required bit of luck in–running to enable him to fully demonstrate his talent…

0.5pt win Buck Magic 11/1

3:35

The final event of the day – and I’ve gone for an outsider, in Battlecry…

When I first saw the runners for the race, he immediately caught my eye- and on closer examination, I felt I simply had to tip him – even if only EW !

As an animal once rated 146, Battlecry is clearly thrown in today off a mark of 112. However, I am under no illusions that he has regressed significantly since he was achieving ratings in the 140s.

That said, it was only last spring, when he ran absolute cracker over this course, when caught close home by Ballyfoy.

That run was off a mark of 116 – and it does suggest he is reasonably treated today off 112.

Clearly there are risks with him – but I suspect that Nigel Twiston Davies will long have had this race in mind for him as he has run many of his best races at Cheltenham.

I would hope to see his young jockey making plenty of use of him – ideally getting him to the front and jumping in a rhythm.

If he can achieve this, I am sure that Battlecry will take a bit of passing.

Of his rivals, I am not at all surprised to see that Alderluck has been very well backed. Not only is he extremely well handicapped, he also goes well fresh and represents the David Pipe stable which has had success in this race in recent seasons.

If I’d been on the ball, he would have been an early bird tip at 12/1 – but at 4/1, tipping him is a different matter.

I might have a small saver on him if he drifts but otherwise I will content myself with 33/1 about Battlecry – with 8/1 a place

0.5pt EW Battlecry 33/1

Here’s hoping for a great day’s racing !

TVB.