Daily write-up - Nov 24th

Only two domestic NH meetings survived the weather today – but both Ascot and Haydock are cracking cards, with a little bit of something for everyone…

There is also a meeting at Gowran Park in Ireland – but aside from the feature race, there is not a lot to get excited about there…

I’ve ended up tipping in 5 races today, which is quite a lot (certainly by this weeks standards !). However, I felt the races were there to be tipped in – and I could quite easily have tipped twice as many horse !

Let’s hope I got those judgement calls right – starting with the big bet of the day at Ascot…

1:40

My dilemma with Lady Kathleen, was not whether or not to tip – just how many points to have on her!

She was always going to be a tip – and quite a strong one at that. However I had to balance my strength of feeling for her against the fact that she takes on 15 opponents today – many of them unexposed.

I’ve decided on the hedge bet route, that I’ve taken a few times already: the majority of the bet to win – with a place saver in case things don’t go quite to plan…

Lady Kathleen is a mare whom I’ve been watching closely since her victory at Ludlow last December.

She was very impressive in victory that day (on which form she comfortable holds today’s top weight Florafern) and looked likely to go on from that win.
However, things haven’t gone right for her since that day…

Next time out, she fell when looking likely to win a poor contest at Plumpton; and then on her final outing of the campaign at Newbury, she probably found the quick ground against her.

She reappeared at Wetherby 3 weeks ago and was a massive eye-catcher that day. Held up at the back of the field, she made ground very easily into the home straight, before lack of fitness put pay to her challenge.

She was allowed to come home in her own time that day – and eventually finished well beaten. However, that run demonstrated to me that she retains all of her ability – and is on a handicap mark which she can win off.

The trip and ground should be perfect for her today – and I fully expect her to run a massive race.

The only really doubt, is her 15 opponents ! One or two of them are sufficiently unexposed, that they may have plenty in hand of the handicapper. However, I think they will need to is if they are going to fend off Lady Kathleen today ;)

1pt win 0.5pt place Lady Kathleen 12/1

2:10

The size of the field for the Amlin chase may be disappointing – but the quality of the field certainly isn’t…

Victory for any of the 4 runners would come as no surprise and therefore I feel the prudent option is a small play on the outsider of the quartet…

That horse is the Paul Nichols trained Ghizao, who made a wining seasonal reappearance at Kempton, just under 3 weeks ago.

His victory that day was very much expected – and he ultimately only beat 1 rival. However he jumped round very nicely and won precisely as he ought to have done – so there were only positives to take out of the race…

A couple of seasons ago, Ghizao and Finians Rainbow were very closely matched as novice chasers.

Finians was provably the slightly better of the 2 – but there was never that much in it.

Today he has to give 4lb and race fitness to his slightly younger rival. If this race had taken place during their novice campaign, there certainly wouldn’t have been the disparity in odds that there is today.

Ofcourse, the reason for that is last season: when Finians Rainbow build on his novice promise and ultimately became champion 2 mile chaser; whilst Ghizao went backwards…

However if we assume that all was not right with Ghizao last year – then things get to look a little more interesting…

Ofcourse this isn’t just a 2 horse race and victory for either Captain Chris or For Non Stop, would not come as a surprise.

However the jumping of the former went completely last season and I would like to see him jump a fence in public before supporting him this season; whilst For No Stop still has a lot to prove at the highest level – despite his breathtaking comeback win…

On balance then, Ghizao is the ‘value’ call at 10/1 – though I won’t be too surprised whatever the outcome…

Very much a race to savour….

0.5pt win Ghizao 10/1

In the Coral hurdle, Oscar Whisky is a shade of odds on – but I think that is about right…

He is a class hurdler and 2m4f is his trip. He has tactical speed and runs well enough when fresh – in short, I think he will take some beating however the race unfolds…

There is a very interesting 2 mile chase at 3:20…

There is likely to be a lot of pace in the race and, to an extent, the result will very much depend on how things pan out in-running.

That said, I think Petite Rose should take the beating – though I will be very interested to watch the performances of Champion Court and Toubab, to name but two…

Finally at Ascot, I think Balbriggen will take some beating in the novice handicap chase at 1:10.
He may not have beaten much on his chasing debut at Bangor, but I was impressed by his style. A mark of 115 for his handicap debut looks very fair to me – but I guess time will tell…

Over at Haydock, there are a number of very competitive handicaps – plus the grade 1 Betfair chase.

The ground is likely to be extremely testing and whatever wins will certainly know it has had a race…

2:00

Despite the 11 runners, I will be a little surprised if the winner of this race doesn’t come from the first 4 in the betting…

Despite winning for us last time out, Quartz de Thaix would be the first one of those 4 that I would eliminate. A 9lb rise for his Bangor victory was fair enough but it means that he gets to carry 11st12lb on heavy ground today – which is a big ask..

For similar reasons, the next to go would be Universal Soldier. He adores the mud – and will always be dangerous when the going gets heavy. But he has a very big weight today, on his seasonal debut…

That just leaves Dashing George and Lie Forrit – and it basically comes down to a choice between current form and proven class.

Rightly or wrongly, I’ve gone for the latter…

Lie Forrit is a 148 rated hurdler (has been as high at 155) who loves soft ground. So with underfoot conditions ideal for him today – he is going to take some stopping off a mark of 130, provided he jumps OK.

In fairness, his jumping has never been too bad – he just hasn’t yet had opportunity to reach the same heights over fences as he has done over hurdles.

He was also a little disappointing on his seasonal debut –and his stable is currently in the best of form – so he does come with risks, but pretty big positives as well…

Dashing George is a decent and honest horse – but he doesn’t possess the class of Lie Forrit. He ran well on his seasonal debut - but in receipt of just 11lbs, I have to make Lie Forrit the call…

0.5pt win Lie Forrit 5/1

2:30

I would have been very keen indeed on American Spin today – if connections had opted to put a conditional jockey on board…

Their loyalty to Jamie Moore is commendable  - and I hope they get rewarded for it – but in today’s ground a few pounds off his back might have made all of the difference…

Despite being 8 years old, American Spin strikes me as a horse still very much on the up…

He was an excellent second to Cape Tribulation at last season’s Grand National meeting and then followed that up with a tremendously gutsy win over today’s course and distance, in May.

He made a very promising seasonal debut at the Cheltenham October meeting, that suggested the progression from last season was going to continue into this one…

The key to American Spin is soft ground – and he will certainly get that today.

Furthermore, he has already shown himself over both today’s course and distance.

As I said, my only really concern with him is the burden of 11st11lb that he will have to lug round today…

If he is to be beaten, then I think Sivola De Sivola is most likely to take advantage…

He carries 8lb less than American Spin today – and has similar form and a progressive profile.

Unfortunately, he is a third of the price and so can only be put up as a saver…

There are some seriously unknown quantities in the race: the likes of Barafundle; Kinghts Pass – and the 2 French imports, Katenko and Katkeau. All 4 of these are possible winners…

However, based on what we know for certain, American Spin and Sivola De Sivola should both go very close today…

0.75pt win American Spin 14/1

0.25pt win Sivola De Sivola 6/1

3:40

This is a hell of a race to try and unravel !!

Last night, I was planning a ‘proper’ tip on Monsieur Cadou – but I was worried about Bellflower Boy as a danger…

However, the more I looked at the race, the more potential winners I could see…

It is going to be an extreme test and I’m sure there won’t be many finishers – but trying to predict which they will be is a very tricky matter.

Outside the 2 already mentioned, I could honestly see another half dozen, for whom victory wouldn’t be a major surprise…

Consequently, at the odds on offer (8/1 and 10/1) I had to leave those 2 alone…

One I simply couldn’t leave alone, however was Nenuphar Collonges…

Now I must say at this point, he is far more likely to tail off and pull up than he is to win, but…

If he did come back to form today, he would be absolutely thrown in…

He is running off a mark over 20lb below his peak - and will have perfect conditions.

He has also regularly shown himself capable of running very well when fresh.

The icing on the cake for me however, was the fact that Sam Thomas gone to Haydock for just the one ride – over 3m4f  in the gathering gloom…

At 33/1 I simply had to have a small wager on the fact that Sam hasn’t completely lost him marbles !!

0.25pt win Nenuphar Collognes 33/1

Earlier on the card, there is a very interesting handicap hurdle being run at 12:55…

There are at least 5 potentially very well handicapped horses running in it – and I’ll be surprised if the form doesn’t stand up throughout the season…

The one I was most interested in, was Il De Roi. If he can translate his flat form back over the jumps, he could well hack up (despite the competitive nature of the race) – but I also have a few nagging doubts about him.

On balance then, he was easy enough to pass on a t 3/1 – but I’m not prepared to find something to beat him.

Finally, Long Run looks a massive price at 7/4 based on his victory in the 2011 Gold Cup – but I won’t be backing him…

In fact, I won’t be backing anything in the field as I simply can’t find a satisfactory angle into the race.

The problem is the going. With it likely to be riding bottomless, whatever wins today is likely to know it has been in a battle – and may well leave the rest of it’s season behind.
For that reason, it is difficult to support Long Run, Silviano Conti and The Giant Bolster – all of whom are likely to have bigger targets in the rest of the season, which  leaves Weird Al and Cannington Brook. However, neither of those two should really be able to beat the other 3…

On balance then, another race where it makes more sense to be a viewer than a bettor…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.