Daily write-up - Nov 15th

As with yesterday, there are a couple of domestic NH fixtures today – this time at Ludlow and Taunton – plus a further meeting over the jumps at Clonmel in Ireland…

With the Cheltenham Open meeting on the horizon, I was hoping for a quiet day today – and that is fortunately how it has turned out…

The card at Taunton is seriously uninspiring – and whilst Ludlow isn’t a great deal better, there are at least a coupe of races suitable for tipping – and I have a tip from one of them.

Over in Tipperary, Clonmel hosts by far the best meeting of the day – with the appearance of Sizing Europe, the undoubted high-light.

I was initially optimistic that I might have a bet at he meeting, but on closer inspection, I went cold on it.

So, just the one tip, the rationale for which, is below…

Ludlow 2:30

I have absolutely no doubt, that Tarkari has the fundamental ability to win a race such as today’s off his current mark…

In fact, he won a race better than today’s, off a 7lb higher mark as recently as July.

However, that was over hurdles – and unfortunately Tarkari isn’t quite as good at negotiating the bigger obstacles.

Also, that was his only victory in his last 20 outings – so he is not exactly a prolific winner..!

Still, last time out he ran very well – over fences and in a better race than today’s. A repeat of that performance should be good enough to win today.

The quick track at Ludlow, and the good ground, will suit him admirably. Whilst the small field he will face today, is probably even more important to him…
I expect to see Paul Moloney hold him up out the back and just keep popping his fences.
Provided his jumping holds up, he will bring him to challenge between the final 2 obstacles – and then canter up the run in, to win hard held !

I’ve decided that picking the winners is becoming a bit too easy, so I’m also going to describe their victories to you in advance - just to make it a bit more of a challenge ;)

0.5pt win Tarkari 6/1

Elsewhere on the Ludlow card:

In the opener, I would not be at all surprised to see Vasco Dycy get the better of favourite Tidal Way.

Obviously it is complete guesswork on my behalf (or educated judgement as I prefer to think of it !) but his French bumper form looks reasonable – and Tidal Way has a  7lb penalty to carry for a victory in quite a soft race…

In the 1:30 race, my eye was taken by Illegal – and the early money for him is interesting. That said, he was never going to be a tip…

I would have hoped to have a tip in the 2:00 race – but it strikes me that he market is about right…

I would see Satou or Ballyoliver as the most likely winners – but odds of 9/4 and 7/2, offer no margin whatsoever…

Finally, in the 3:00 race, I will be keeping a close eye on Deceptive…

He was cantering last time out and then stopped as if shot. A sharp track like Ludlow and good ground, is clearly the right call for him - and whilst he may still struggle to get home, he is quite appealing as the type to back pre-race and lay in-running…

I saw very little of interest on the Taunton card…

If pushed for a mention, I would choose Romance Dance in the 1:40 race; and Notarfbad and First Morning in the 3:10.

All 3 have potentially interesting angles to them – but are just as likely to finish unsighted !

It was certainly easy enough to pass on them, from a tipping perspective…

Finally at Clonmel, it will be a pleasure to see Sizing Europe strutting his stuff in the Clonmel Oil chase.

There is little chance of Andy Lynch finding himself too far out of his ground today. A bigger danger is probably that he chases a suicidal pace (likely to be set by Let Yourself Go ) and pays the penalty at the end of the race.

Hopefully that won’t happen though – and Sizing will come through the test unscathed.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on Rathlin in the race. I can’t see him being good enough to bustle up the favourite – but today ought to give me a feel for how he is progressing this season…

Half an hour later, I could see Our Girl Sally giving the market leaders a bit to think about  in the mares chase. She looks reasonable value at 8/1. 

Finally, I did think there was a chance I would be tipping Rubert in the chase at 3:25…

He ran well enough on his seasonal debut at Punchestown – and has been dropped back a little in trip today.

However, looking at the make up of the race, it promises to be a total burn up !

There are 4 or 5 confirmed front runners in opposition so how things will pan out is anyone’s guess…

If , by some miracle, Rubert does get an uncontested lead, then I think he will be difficult to pass. More likely however, all the front runners will go off too fast and the race will fall apart – leaving something to come through from the back and pick up the pieces…

Finally, as I mentioned at the top, The Cheltenham Open meeting begins tomorrow.

To some (and I would include myself in that number) this is the second biggest NH meeting of the season.

There is a distinct possibility that I will be issuing main-line tips from 5:00 this evening (half an hour earlier than normal).

Any tips not issued this evening, will be issued first thing tomorrow morning.

This will be the case for all 3 days of the meeting.

Furthermore, whilst I don’t intend to tip in every race at the meeting, I will give my views on them all. This will enable any of you who are attending, to go along fully armed.

You can’t say that you don’t get value for money with TVB J

TVB.