Daily write-up - Nov 30th

Day 2 of the Newbury winter festival, is the headline act today – supported domestically by meetings at Musselburgh and Doncaster  - with Thurles in Ireland, weighing in with an all hurdle card…

I was waxing lyrical about the Thurles card yesterday- but I’m afraid I don’t feel quite the same about their offering today…

I may be a NH man – but I think I’m really a steeplechase man ;)

And as if to support that theory, 3 of the 4  races that I’ve tipped in today are chases – one at each of the domestic meetings…

I’ll start the days preview at Newbury – as it is the most significant meeting of the day – and also responsible for 3 of today’s tips (across 2 races)…

2:40

This is the kind of race that could do some serious damage to your P&L !

It’s a race where everyone is likely to have an opinion – feel they’ve found an angle – and where in truth, at least one of a dozen horses could actually win…

That said, I think the most likely winner of the race is the favourite Ballybough Pat.

He has already shown form good enough to go very close today –and he is young enough to have plenty of scope for improvement.

I couldn’t tip him at 4/1 – but I’m very wary of opposing him…

That said, I think there is an EW angle in the race – and I have a sneaky suspicion about another, so I am playing in the race – just with small stakes though…

The first selection is Benbane Head.

I’m sure a lot of you will recall him doing us a big favour earlier in the month, when successful at Towcester.

He put up a tremendously gutsy effort that day, looking the winner of the race, nowhere apart form the line.

He was raised 5lb for that win and I was sure that the combination of that - and the soft ground – would find him out next time at Cheltenham – and it did, but only just…

IMO he ran a much better race in defeat that day than he had in victory at Towcester. It was a better class race and he travelled supremely well for most of it.

Ultimately, he was found out by the Cheltenham hill in the soft ground – but he lost very little in defeat.

He drops 2 furlongs in trip today – and the ground is unlikely to be quite so testing.
I also think that the long Newbury straight will very much play to his strengths.

Take the favourite out of the race, and he would have been a much stronger bet – but I’ll be a little surprised if he is quite good enough to win…

Counting House is altogether more speculative – but I just have a sneaky feeling about him today.

I admit that a lot of it is down to his stable. Jim Old is an amazing trainer  - with his strike rate, I’ve no idea how he has kept going as long as he has. However, when he hits a streak of form (about once a year !) – you need to sit up and take notice..

His last 4 runners have yielded 2 winners and a second – that is pretty hot form by anyone’s standards…

Last time out, Counting House ran a very good race against the well weighted Arkose

He has been raised a few pounds for that run but should still be competitive off his new mark today.

Simply, he was one that I just felt we had to have on side, because I think he has a squeak – and he is too big a price to ignore…

Of the others in the race, it would come as no surprise to see good runs from Bakbenscher, Stow and No Secrets – though as I said, Ballybough Pat is the one I really fear…

0.25pt EW Benbane Head 14/1

0.25pt win Counting House 18/1 

3:15

Pasco is another old favourite, as he was a successful selection for me in the TVB pre-season…

That was in a race at Aintree, where he ultimately won very easily.

In truth, I think that result flatters him a little: more unusually for a TVB selection, luck smiled on him, as one by one his opponents ruined their chances (by falling, making mistakes or getting hampered).

Pasco was raised 8lb for that effort – which could be considered a little harsh in the circumstances. However, it still leaves him 7lb below the mark from which he ran an absolute cracker at this meeting 2 years ago, when chasing up Mount Oscar.
Also, we now know that Pasco is back in serious form – so you can’t have everything…

Whether 7lb in hand of his current mark will be sufficient to win today’s contest, is debatable – but I hope it will…

There is nothing in the race that strikes me as being outstandingly well handicapped (apart from Prince of Pirates maybe – but he comes with risks) so I am prepared to take the risk.

At bigger prices, I am a little fearful of both Matuhi and Mahogany Blaze. I selected the latter last time out in the Rowan chase at Aintree and whilst he was a little disappointing that day, he did run into a very well handicapped horse in For Non Stop.

Mahogany Blaze has been dropped 4lb following that run and he will come back into form soon – but hopefully not today !!

0.5pt win Pasco 6/1

Elsewhere on the Newbury card. I would have been very tempted to tip Mallusk in the novice chase at 1:30, if the 25/1 from last night had still been available this morning…

You could argue that he still might be worth a small EW pay at his current price – but I think the margins are now small.

The particularly eye-catching part of his form is his last time out run over hurdles, in the same race that provided us with loose Chips earlier in the week.

However, Mallusk was quite well beaten that day – and has a higher mark over fences to contend with…

All in all, a borderline call – but one I decide to pass on…

In the Berkshire novice chase, Dynaste will obviously take all the beating – but I would be looking to taking him on…

If Tony Martin allows Benefficient to take his chance after yesterdays exertions, I would expect him to go very well over this slightly shorter trip.

Court in Motion will also be a serious challenger in receipt of weight – and he would probably be my choice in the race.

Theatre Guide is another whom I could see running very well…

In summary, this is not going to be easy for Dynaste – and he is no 1/2 shot in my book…

Over at Doncaster, there is just the one race where I have a strong view…

3:05

This looks a hugely trappy contest – but I think Knockando is worth a small play at big odds…

He managed to record a couple of victories as a novice hurdler last season, but has always looked more of a chaser.

First time out this season, he fell, when well behind at Wetherby. However, he didn’t jump badly up until that point – and I suspect the run was needed that day.

3 miles, soft ground and flat left handed track are his conditions – and he gets all of those today.

It seems highly significant that Lucinda Russell sends him on a near 500 mile round trip for today’s contest. I get the feeling he will be trying, if nothing else !

In truth, it is a race where victory for any of the runners would come as no big surprise.

If forced to nominate a main danger, then I would plump for Weston Lodge, as he looks a progressive sort.

However, at double his odds, I am happy to have a small play on Knockando and hope that he can replay some of the diesel money for Lucinda ;)

0.5pt win Knockando 10/1

Finally, at Musselburgh (assuming it is passed fit for racing)…

1:10

Just how confident is it reasonable to be over a horse that hasn’t won a race over fences in 11 tries..?

The thing is, I’m very confident about Ballymacduff – I should really have staked him at doublet he level I have – but I can’t help but feel a little nervous about him, based on his past performances…

Last time out, he was cruising alongside The Big Freeze (the day that I tipped that one) at Musselburgh, when he fell.

It was too far out to be adamant about the outcome, but he was going so well, it is difficult to think he wouldn’t have been involved in the finish, if he had stood up…

In truth, Ballymacduff has always been a horse with ability way above his lowly handicap mark – connections just haven’t been able to get him to demonstrate it…

Now I’m not one to have a go at jockeys – but I can’t help but wonder whether his old regular pilot, Jan Faltesjek, was part of the problem…

Ballymadcduff certainly wouldn’t be the first horse to benefit from a change of jockey.

Last time out, Ryan Mania seemed to be getting a tune out of him until the fall –and today, Lucy Alexander is entrusted with the reigns.

I really do hope – and think – that she will make the difference. She is a very talented rider – and her 3lb clam is a gift.

What makes the case so strong foe Ballymacduff today, is the paucity of credible opposition. I’m really struggling to see much in the race to worry about !

In summary, then, if Lucy can get him settled and jumping – and Ballymacduff runs the race I’m sure he is capable, I would expect to see him winning hard held (like the good old TVB tips used to ;)

1pt win Ballymacduff 5/1

Here’s hoping for a great day !

TVB