Friday 16 November 2012

Review of the day

If I had been offered a single winner today, from the 4 tips issued, I would happily have taken it…

Winner finding at Cheltenham is never easy – and I was under no illusion about how difficult is was going to be today (and will be again, tomorrow - and on Sunday) 
The races tend to be ferociously competitive. Half of the battle when you are trying to solve races, is to be able to eliminate some of the runners and therefore move the odds in your favour.
However that is rarely an easy thing to do in races at Cheltenham as invariably the majority of the runners have a chance and will be trying as hard as they can.

There can be little doubt that Buck Magic was trying this afternoon !
The only time he looked likely to actually win the race, was about 5 yards from the line – but he had been trying all the way round.
It says much for his courage –and the tenacity of his talented amateur pilot – that he got there eventually.
He will be better for the run; he will be better over further –and he will probably be better over fences.
His future should be bright…
He also got that little bit of luck that so often seems to elude TVB tips. Saint Roque was brought down at the second last, when moving ominously well.
Obviously we will never know for sure whether Buck Magic could have repelled his challenge, but I think it might have been close…

Earlier in the afternoon, Wetak got the luck more commonly associated with TVB tips, when stumbling on landing after the second last fence.
Whether it ultimately affected the result is a debatable point – though it certainly didn’t help his cause…
He was also unlucky to come up against a rival who didn’t put a foot wrong throughout the race.
I was right to think that Wetak was handicapped to go close today – and I’m sure the handicapper will look now to rectify that situation.

Just a quick mentioned for bookmakers Paddy Power here…
I know they are considered the ‘enemy’ but I think it is only fair to point out when they do something which works in our favour.

On Wednesday, they were the only bookmakers who refunded stakes when Captain Sunshine refused to race: and today they refunded stakes on Wetak, as Ruby Walsh rode the winner of the race.
I know of at least one TVB subscriber (well done Michael), who benefited from their generosity…

Things weren’t quite so bright for the other 2 TVB tips running today…
In the cross country chase, Uncle Junior turned round the Pardubicka form with Orphee Des Blins in no uncertain manner !
Credit must go to jockey Patrick Mullins who managed to stay onboard the horse despite a horrendous blunder about 10 fences from home.
The one to take out of the race however, was Balthazaar King. He jumped and travelled incredibly well – and I suspect it was just the ground on the day, that did for him.
Provided he arrives fresh - and the ground is on the quick side, then he will take some beating come March.

Battlecry ran OK to a point in the finale - but was probably already beaten when blundering badly at the 12th fence.
His best days are clearly behind him and it is always difficult to gauge how fast these old horses are deteriorating…
Swing Bill clearly isn’t deteriorating quite as quickly. Despite being the same age as Battlecry, he managed to put in a fine round of jumping to record back to back victories in the race…

In the opener, Fingal Bay and Dynaste did indeed fight out the finish – but it was the latter who came out on top.
Both horses jumped really well – and the 7lb Fingal Bay had to concede ultimately proved the difference.
Doubtless common consensus will be that Dynaste is the better horse – but I’m not so sure about that.
Fingals Bay looks like a real street fighter to me and when the going gets tough, I suspect we will see him raise his game…

Finally Dodging Bullets justified favouritism in the novice hurdle, thanks mainly to a brilliant ride from Ruby Walsh.
That might sound an odd thing to say, when a short priced favourite wins a race from the front. However there was no pace on early and Ruby had to be decisive and grasp the nettle to ensure the race didn’t turn into a lottery.
He did that and then judged the pace to perfection on a horse that would clearly rather not have been in front.
It’s always good to watch a great jockey riding a great race –and that is precisely what we saw today…

Cheltenham is brilliant, isn’t it !!!

TVB.

2 comments:

  1. like you say never easy at chelt , just my opinion but i felt shooters wood benefitted from going left.i too was on wetak :(

    steveb

    ps going with a couple of big priced ones tomorrow , good luck whatever you back

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  2. I don't know whether Shooters Wood benefitted from going L/H or not - but he certinly put in an almost flawless round of jumping - more's the pity !!
    I too have a couple of big priced selections lined up for tomorrow - I wonder if they are the same ones ?!?!
    TVB

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