First of all, apologies for the late delivery of today’s write up…
The area of the country in which I live is currently being subjected to significant local flooding. I‘ve been living here for over 25 years and it’s the worst I’ve ever seen.
As a result, many of the small local roads are currently closed and it is virtually impossible to travel anywhere.
I’ve spent a couple of hours stuck in traffic this morning, trying to execute the school run !
I fear that there could be a long week ahead…!
Anyway, enough of my domestic woes !
Two NH cards today at Kempton and Ludlow – and I suspect the going at both will be pretty testing…
I spent a long time trawling though both cards last night and whilst I couldn’t come up with anything spectacular, I do believe I’ve found a couple of solid bets at Kempton.
Lets hope they both perform as I believe them capable…
12:30
This is one of those complicated races, to which I was referring yesterday…
If you turn it around enough, you can find a case (or at least half a case) for almost every runner.
However, if you look at it squarely, and try to find the best handicapped horse in the race, then one of them just jumps out…!!
The horse in question is Loose Chips – and the piece of form which makes him look very well handicapped is his last time out run at Haydock.
He ran an absolute cracker that day, racing from the front and only giving way at the second last hurdle.
What is particularly significant about the run, is the two horses that beat him: San Telm and Yesyoucan. Both have gone on to frank the form in no uncertain terms: San Telm with an excellent run at Cheltenham off a higher mark and Yesyoucan with a thrilling victory in a really strong race at Haydock this weekend.
Loose Chips was the only member of the field to give those 2 a race that day – and he gets to run off the same mark today.
I have some concerns about upping him in trip and the application of blinkers for the first time; I also have some concerns about the weight he has to carry today in the soft ground. I even have some concerns about the opposition he will face today.
However, put simply, if Loose Chips repeats the form of his Haydock run today, he will take the world of beating.
The fact that he likes to front run, is a bonus as it reduces the chances of things going wrong during the race.
The fact that he likes to front run, is a bonus as it reduces the chances of things going wrong during the race.
One thing for sure, if Fehily gets his fractions right, Loose Chips should take a lot of passing…
0.75pt win Loose Chips 11/2
2:35
Joker Choker was the horse I expected to be tipping in this particular race.
He really caught my eye last time at Aintree and back over fences today off a 3lb lower mark I expected him to take all the beating – but then the rain came…
Try as I might, I can’t find anything in Joker Choker’s form that suggests he is going to be able to cope with today’s conditions – and so I have had to reluctantly pass him over…
That said, with him out the way, the race is a little easier to solve ;)
I would expect Niceonefrankie to run a decent race (assuming his last time out fall is not repeated), but he may have to give best to a potentiality well handicapped rival in Bally Legend.
Today will only be Bally Legend’s second run over fences. His first was at Taunton at the end of October. He ran a perfectly satisfactory race that day, finishing third behind two very decent rivals. His jumping was sound, if a little careful land, and he finished well over a trip that was always likely to be on the short side for him.
Today will only be Bally Legend’s second run over fences. His first was at Taunton at the end of October. He ran a perfectly satisfactory race that day, finishing third behind two very decent rivals. His jumping was sound, if a little careful land, and he finished well over a trip that was always likely to be on the short side for him.
Based on hurdle form, his rating of 129 over fences is very workable. He should be better suited by today’s trip and will have no issues with the ground.
In summary, provided his jumping holds up in this more competitive race, I think he will have a very good chance of victory.
0.5pt win Bally Legend 9/2
In the previous race on the card, I think Knockfierna will take all the beating.
Kaffie could be a danger if fully tuned for her seasonal debut – but I suspect connections will have left something to work on with her.
That being the case, I would expect Knockfierna to prove the best in the field and justify the day out, for Davy Russsel and Charles Byrnes !
That being the case, I would expect Knockfierna to prove the best in the field and justify the day out, for Davy Russsel and Charles Byrnes !
Finally at Kempton, I can see Firm Order running better than his odds imply.
I doubt he will be good enough to actually win the race – but I can see him forcing it from the off and if his rivals have any jumping issues, then who knows what might happen.
He’s not really a bet – but a pre-race back to lay IR, might reap some rewards…
Over at Ludlow,
I’ll be astonished if the novice chase at 1:10 doesn’t fall to either Carrigmorna King or Dare Me.
On decent ground I would have strongly favoured the former – but if the going is very soft, I wouldn’t be quite do sure.
In the handicap chase at 2:50, I would expect Inamalabusaloon to follow up his Cartmel victory of the summer – provided he handles the soft going.
He was very impressive that day and I’m sure he will be able to shrug off a 9lb rise in the handicap.
He was very impressive that day and I’m sure he will be able to shrug off a 9lb rise in the handicap.
Finally, you should be learning by now that I like to try and unlock bumpers by interpreting the subtle signs…
Well, the subtle signs say to me that Devils Dykes could be the one in this particular contest …
A beaten favourite first time out I have a sneaking suspicion that he might be able to make amends for that reversal today ;)
Here’s to a great day !
TVB.
No comments:
Post a Comment