Daily write-up - Nov 6th

The Haldon Gold cup meeting at Exeter provides the only domestic NH racing of the day - though there is also a fair NH meeting at Punchestown, over in Ireland…

I have to admit to being a little frustrated yesterday evening…

As is my want, I started studying today’s Exeter card, not long after the overnight declarations were released, late yesterday morning.

I wasn’t overly taken by the card (it can sometimes be a real cracker) but there was a race that grabbed me, and that was the handicap chase, at 3:50.

Looking through the runners, it was pretty obvious that That‘lldoboy would be put in a short priced favourite – and one that I would be keen to oppose.

However, the one that most interested me, was Richard’s Sundance.

He has run well on seasonal debut in the past, should be suited by trip and ground – and is getting to be very well handicapped.

I didn’t see him as a certainty by any means – but I thought he could be potentially interesting…

Roll on 6 hours and the first of the bookmakers price up the race.

Ladbrokes were one of the first up – and they priced up Richards Sundance at 10/1. Now that was interesting ! Unfortunately, the price didn’t last long; neither did the 8/1 initial 8/1 quote from B365. And by the time the race had been priced up by 5 bookmakers, 6/1 was the best price available.

In truth, even that looks good now, as you’ll struggle to beat 4/1…!

4/1 represents no value in my book – 6/1 didn’t represent much either, so it was easy enough to pass on him at those prices.

However, 10/1 was good value – and he would have been a bet at that price.

So, how should I handle these situations ?

Sunday aside (which was exceptional circumstances), I’m tending to leave such horses alone – as that is what I effectively said I would do.

However, watching horses you fancy just shorten in front of your eyes, is very frustrating,

It’s not even as of the bookmakers act in a balanced way, be lengthening other horses in the same race. On Sunday evening, VC bet shortened 7 runners in a 10 horse race- without lengthening a single one !

I guess I’ll have to think through my options – but it does appear very difficult to get on a horse you fancy at a reasonable price – certainly the night before.

Anyway, on to today’s tip !

As I suggested above, I was initially a little disappointed by the field assembled for today’s Haldon Gold cup.

It’s not that it’s a particularly poor field in terms of quality – but 5 runners – and only 4 with realistic chances, is hardly going to set the pulse racing.

That said, the top 3 in the race are all potentially top class horses – but it is the other horse in the race with a chance, whom I’ve made the tip.

Renard was hugely progressive last season, starting the campaign with a rating of 109 and finishing it on a mark of 143 (and that despite a coupe of poor performances in his final 2 runs of the season).

He made his seasonal debut at Chepstow 10 days ago, and travelled through the race like the best horse in it. He looked set to win, taking up the running entering the home straight, but he then tried to take the third last fence with him – and was a spent force from that point.

If that outing has brought him on, I can see him running a very big race today.

Of his opponents, Cue Card and Menorah, in particular both have the potential to go to the top. However, neither has the benefit of an outing this season – and both are likely to be better over slightly longer trips.

It also easy enough to have reservations about the jumping of the pair – in short, they don’t look rock solid.

That is also the case for the other horse in the handicap proper, Edgardo Sol.

He looked brilliant at times last season (Aintree in particular) – but quite average on other occasions.

I would expect his to be close to peak fitness today – but his weakness in the market is concerning.

The final runner in the race, Webberys Dream, is 11lb wrong in the weights and whilst he is a useful sort, he shouldn’t be up to wining (or placing) today.

On balance therefore, I think it is worth a small play on Renard. With only 4 realistic contenders for 2 places – and with doubts about the other 3, he is worth chancing at the available odds.

He might not currently be viewed in the same class as the ‘big 3’, but they all have to give him over a stone in weight – plus race fitness. Furthermore, Renard is still only 7 years old himself and if he can maintain the progression he should last season a – and his debut run suggested that might well be the case – I can see him going close today.

0.5pt EW Renard 10/1

In the final race on the card, I was quite interested in Pyleigh Lass. However a best price of 5/1 in a competitive looking 11 runner race, makes limited appeal…

Over at Punchestown, Chasing Shadows and Leblon are of some interest against the market leaders in the mares beginners chase at 1:25.

They both have doubts against them – but they also both have a fair amount of ability.

Half an hour later, I did toy with another Irish tip, in Rubert…

He would have been a risky one mind, as he is far from guaranteed to stay the 2m4f trip.

However, I think that first time up is the time to catch him – and the application of blinkers is an interesting move.
If he doesn’t get home, then Heavenly Brook could be the one to take advantage…

Finally, I must tell you a tale from last night…

Just before I went to bed, I spent 5 minutes looking at the field for the Melbourne Cup.

I picked out a couple of runners at huge odds (almost 3 figures) and backed them win only on Betfair.

I was woken by the radio 4 sports report this morning – and the result of the Melbourne cup.

I could barely believe my ears – the horses I’d backed were Fiorente and Jakkalberry !!
You couldn’t make it up, could you ?!?!?!

TVB.