Daily write-up - Nov 14th

Just the 2 domestic NH cards today, at Exeter and Bangor – with a further NH fixture in the north of Ireland, at Downpatrick…

For a midweek, today’s racing isn’t too bad at all: there is a good quality handicap chase being run at Bangor – and a number of interesting horses on show at Exeter.

I’ve opted for a couple of bets today: 1 being a classic TVB type (and I don’t mean a Venetia Williams trained loser !) – and the other, slightly less so…!

I’ll cover that one first !!

Exeter 2:10

I dare say that one or two of you are a little confused as to how I can put up 7/4 shot this morning, when I turned down a 7/2 shot yesterday, because it’s price was too short…

In simple terms, it all comes down to ‘value’.

‘Value’ is an interesting concept – and one that not everyone fully understands…

I think, by now, most people have grasped the idea, that in order to make money backing horses, you need to back at ‘value’ prices – and that ‘value’ can be just as easily be found in an even money shot as it can a 20/1 shot…

However, the bit of ‘value’ that people don’t really get, is that it is completely under-pinned by judgement.

If your judgement of a race – and consequently the prices – is wrong, then you can claim ‘value’ as much as you like – but you’ll be wrong more often that you are right…

I think that at the moment (and yesterday is a good example of this), my judgement is pretty good (I would like to think that this was always the case – but then again…!!).

However, where I am being let down, is in my definition of ‘value’.

I’m looking for a 20-30% price margin on the horse I think most likely to win a race –and currently, it just isn’t there…

For example, yesterday I viewed Buck Mulligan as the most likely winner of the handicap chase at Sedgefield - but in my book, he was priced up about right at 7/2.

If there is no ‘value’ in a price, I can’t make it a bet (as in the long run, we would just break even).

Today, I view Captain Sunshine as the most likely winner of the handicap hurdle at Exeter – and I make him around a 5/4 shot.

Therefore, a quote of 7/4 gives the value margin that we need…

Hopefully this makes sense – and explains why I passed on a 7/2 shot yesterday and am tipping a 7/4 shot today.

Obviously, with benefit of hindsight, all this may look silly – but that is where the judgement part comes in.

Any fool can say something isn’t value after a race – but the talent is saying it before the race.

You won’t always get it right – but in the long run, if your judgement is sound, you will make a profit…

So why do I think Captain Sunshine is value at 7/4 today..?

Firstly, he is only facing 5 rivals –and there are serious question marks over 3 of them…

Lundy Sky and Moorland Sunset are both running from out of the handicap proper; whilst Alfie Sherrin is surely using this as a pipe opener before being sent chasing…

Of the 3 remaining ‘candidates’  I make Captain Sunshine by far the most likely winner…

Five Dream was beaten in this race last year off a 16lb lower mark and hasn’t won a race since that date ! (his rise in the weights is due to him running well in conditions races).

Whilst, Star Du Gratis was disappointing last time at Mussselburgh – but gets to run off a 5lb higher mark today…

Captain Sunshine on the other hand, was a very progressive novice last season  - and put in a most eye-catching run on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham.

His handicap mark remains unchanged after that effort; he’s had nearly a month to get over it; and he is Dominic Elsworth’s only ride of the day.

The only real question mark in my mind is the trip – which is a couple of furlongs further than he has gone before. However, he looks as if he should be well suited to the extra distance.

In short, he is very solid – and his rivals are not ! (and there is only 5 of them !).

In truth, he should have been staked greater than 1 point – but I want to ease myself in on these types – as I will be very disappointed if he should fail to win today (even though he is odds on to lose !)

1pt win Captain Sunshine 7/4

In the opener at Exeter, I’m staggered to see Provo put in as a 4/9 shot against unexposed representatives from most of the top yards.

OK he has hurdling experience – but he also has a 6lb penalty…

I guess non of his rivals may be tuned up sufficiently to beat him – but at that price, I would be a layer rather than a backer.

There is also a very decent novice chase at 2:40, where 4 or 5 of the field could be given a chance…

I don’t have a particularly strong view on the race – but if pushed, I would side with Talkonthestreet, who looks a bit of value  at 5/1…

Bangor 2:00

The Bangor card is dominated by the handicap chase at 2:00…

Our old friend Buffalo Bob is in the contest – and with his recent debut run under his belt, I could certainly see him giving a bold show…

In truth however, victory for any of the runners, with the possible exceptions of That’s the Deal and Cadoudalas, wouldn’t come as a major surprise – and in those situations, I invariable opt for an outsider…

Quartz De Thaix had a season to forget last campaign, with just 4 runs and barely a worthwhile showing amongst them.
We have to ignore that campaign and assume something wasn’t quite right.

However, if that was the case, then he looks very interesting indeed…

As a novice in his previous season, he took the scalp of Ace High, before running a highly respectable 7^th in the Byrne Group plate at the Cheltenham festival.

That placing was achieved off a mark of 137 – Quartz De Thaix goes into battle today on a mark of 130…

Last season aside, his form after a break has been very good – he gave weight and a beating over hurdles, to the smart Son of Flicka on his seasonal debut in the 2010-11 season.

He should also be well suited by today’s trip and ground…

As I said at the beginning, it is very open race. However, I do feel that, if back to his best, Quart De Thaix is capable of going very close.

The danger would be that either Monkerty Tunkerty or Cotsowld Charmer are much better than their current ratings – but they both have pretty big doubts over them – and are put in at pretty small prices.

On balance, I am happy enough with a small play on Quartz De Thaix…

0.5pt win Quartz De Thaix 14/1

Here’s hoping for a good day…

TVB.