Daily write-up - Nov 5th

There are 2 NH meetings today, at Kempton and Plumpton, with the former having a definite edge in terms of the class of horses running.

As a consequence, it is Kempton where I focused my attention and whilst the entire card is of interest, the handicap chase at 3:40 was the race that really caught my attention.

The race has the make and shape of the kind of contest that I like to play in – but it was the presence of one horse, that really caught my eye…

Loch Ba was a decent enough performer last season. He won on his first outing of the campaign (admittedly, a little luckily) and then than really well in defeat behind Lexicon Lad, at Warwick. He also ran well on his next 2 outings – including in finishing fourth behind Our Mick, in a really hot novice handicap chase at the Kempton Christmas meeting.

His final 2 starts of the season were disappointing – but as a result his handicap mark has dropped back to 108 (from a high of 113).

Over the summer, he transferred into the care of Mick Channon (having previously been with Henrietta Knight) and as has been shown a few times recently, horses taking that path are liable to show improved form first time out this campaign…

In truth, aside from his last 2 starts, Loch Ba had looked progressive anyway. Furthermore, he is only 6 years old, so it is reasonable to think his best days are still ahead of him.

He will be going into unknown territory, tackling 3 miles for the first time today – but his breeding and style of running, suggest this shouldn’t pose a problem.

Normally when I advise a strong bet, I like to have significant reservations about the rest of the field – but unfortunately, today, that isn’t really the case !

This is a very hot field for a class 4 chase, with several of the runners still likely to be significantly ahead of the handicapper.

Prime amongst these, is the Rebecca Curtis trained Fishoutofwater. He showed up very well on a few occasions last season and could still have scope for improvement. I‘m not surprised to see him well backed this morning – and with his connections, that support has to be of concern.

However, I always felt he was better with significant cut in the ground – and hopefully the ground won’t be quite soft enough for him today.

The other 2 of particular interest are the Paul Webber trained duo, Firm Order and Tafika: I feel that both of these runners could make up into decent chasers this season (particularly the latter).

It is no exaggeration to say that the last 3 mentioned could easily have 10lb in hand of their current handicap mark – but I feel that it is quite possible that Loch Ba could have double that amount !
The other 5 runners are all decent at this level – but it will be a surprise if any of them are good enough to win today, simply because of the potential of the opposition they face.

In my mind last night, I wanted odds of 3/1 or greater for Loch Ba to be a 2 point bet.

The 4/1 with Paddy Power was therefore very attractive (as was the 9/2 with B365 – but that didn’t last long).

Unfortunately, I was going out last night, just after 5:30 (to a firework display !) so I had to make a very early call on how to play things…

Whilst I had stated in my introduction, that I wouldn’t issue tips until at least 5 bookmakers had priced up a race – and provided at least 2 offered acceptable odds – I felt that I simply had to take a bit of a flyer last night.

Only 3 bookmakers had priced up the race – but all 3 were offering odds that I considered acceptable (so the second of my criteria had been matched).

Hopefully, the vast majority of you managed to get on at the 3/1 minimum price.

If anyone does have a real issue with the way I handled things yesterday, please let me know.

That said, I would hope that such situation won’t crop up too frequently – and my options for dealing with it when it does happen, are limited (if I had not issued at that time, then everyone would have missed the price).

Ofcourse, all this will be irrelevant if Loch Ba doesn’t perform this afternoon – but hopefully that won’t be the case…

Loch Ba 2pt win 4/1

In the previous race on the card (the graduation chase), I could see Hells Bay outrunning his odds. Even though he is the outsider in the field of 3, I think he has enough basic ability to just about win this – assuming he is spot on…

However, he has had physical problems in the past – and this is his first outing of the season – and for a new trainer – so there is a fair deal of doubt.

Also, Ruby is over to ride Ghizao, which suggests that Paul Nicholls is pretty keen on his chances.

I might have a small wager on Hells Bay for interest - but I’ll resist making him a tip…

TVB.