The abandonment of Limerick this morning, means that there are only the 2 cards this afternoon: at Carlisle and Southwell…
First things first: I must apologise for missing my tipping ‘window’ this morning…
For some (hopefully inexplicable) reason B365 seem to have taken against Phoenix Flight today…
They were biggest on him last night (when most of the other bookmakers were offering single figures, they went out to 14/1) – and that continued this morning.
I figured it best to leave the tip until a few of the other bookmakers fell in line – as I didn’t want to be restricting you all to having to place the bet with B365 (which I’m sure is not an option for everyone).
So, whilst the market settled, I went off to do a bit of shopping.
However, I was held up for quite a while as the Police had closed a few roads and cordoned off an area in the centre of my town…
Apparently, some guy was threatening to throw himself out of a pub window !
I have to say, I did wonder at the time, if I was being a little hasty closing the service at the beginning of November – you just never expect such severe consequences L
Anyway, the nett result of this was that it was after 10:00 when I got home – and consequently the tip came out a few minutes later than planned.
Fortunately, the other bookmakers did play ball whilst I was out of the house – and 18/1 was available in 3 places (VC bet briefly went that price after I had issued).
Either way, I’m sure you will all have been able to get on at the minimum price of 14/1…
Southwell 2:15
Whilst the case for Phoenix Flight isn’t totally compelling – I do think he has got a chance today and that he is significantly over-priced (a little like Top Dancer last week, who although beaten, ran a very good race).
Part of the reason he is over-priced, is the weight of support behind Joseph Lister (I think this can be called the ‘Charlie Longsdon factor’).
I would certainly give that one a chance – but 2/1 on it against 18/1 on Phoenix flight, is plain silly…
Phoenix Flight is relatively unexposed over hurdles – but he was quite progressive last season and I can see no reason why that progressive shouldn’t continue this season.
He is at his best on decent ground – but he should get that today, and a recent run of the flat, should ensure he is reasonably straight.
The 2m4f round Southwell’s flat track should pose no problems and the booking of Timmy Murphy for his only ride of the day, has to be seen as a positive.
I did toy with putting him up EW – but he’s a half point bet and I would rather go for it than mess around with 0.25pt EW (which would barely return a point if he was placed !). Obviously, I’m tempting fate by writing this – but there you go !!
0.5pt win Phoenix Flight 18/1
Elsewhere today, there is very little to get excited about…
Earlier on the card, Or Sing About looks quite interesting in the handicap chase at 1:10. 11/2 seems a perfectly reasonable price about his chances…
Over at Carlisle, I’m a little surprised to see the Irish raider, Cilliseal priced up as the outsider of six. I expected him to be more fancied that that – but it is not a race I would want to get heavily involved in.
Snowed In, is a horse I would be prepared to back – but I don’t think they have chosen the right race for him today.
He struggled to get home over Carlisle’s stiff 2 miles last time – so I can’t give a lot for his chances over 2m3f at the same course.
There will doubtless be other days for him (maybe at Ludlow !) – and Polarbrook is the one I would choose to be with this afternoon.
Finally, in the graduation chase at 2:25, Sarando is potentially interesting – though I don’t think he will be particularly suited to a slog in the mud.
If it turns into that (and it very well might) Across the Bay is most likely to come out on top…
Here’s to a good day.
TVB.
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